ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

I was tripping last night... wondering how the downwelling Kelvin that was generated from the late December/Early January WWB beneath the WPAC, disappeared.

But it appears that it did not, and instead the warmer anomalies have now shifted closer to the dateline:

[NotSparta]

I was tripping last night... wondering how the downwelling Kelvin that was generated from the late December/Early January WWB beneath the WPAC, disappeared.

But it appears that it did not, and instead the warmer anomalies have now shifted closer to the dateline:

https://i.imgur.com/WKXsRHQ.gif

Nice little boost to existing anoms

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1085240611198943232

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/bhensonweather/status/1085334430959337472

[SconnieCane]

So, contradictory tweets on the same day? I don't care what anyone says, I'm officially calling this "El Lame-o."

[AnnularCane]

It needs to either develop or go away.

(How many times has this been said about invests? )

[Sciencerocks]

Something tells me we'd have to have +.5c 3.4 conditions for an entire year before they'd declare. At least this is the way it feels to me.

lol

[Kingarabian]

So, contradictory tweets on the same day? I don't care what anyone says, I'm officially calling this "El Lame-o."

No disrespect to Mr. Henson, but he's basing his reasoning in that tweet on a 1 week of Nino 3.4 dipping below +0.5C, but if you look at that graphic, Nino 3.4 has been at or over +0.5C for the majority of the time since this past summer. This tweet is also in regards to the ENSO event of 2018-2019.

Paul Roundy's tweet is talking about progress towards a possible El Nino for that may have big impacts in 2019-2020.

[Kingarabian]

Something tells me we'd have to have +.5c 3.4 conditions for an entire year before they'd declare. At least this is the way it feels to me.

lol

Even that may not be enough as long as they don't get the atmospheric coupling they're looking for.

[Kingarabian]

Buoys website is back online. Clear as day now that we have a new warm pool that is strengthening. Through January 18, the buoys snapshot of the subsurface matches closely with 2005 and 2015 so far. Both years were coming off El Nino's. Although the warm anomalies are stronger at this stage compared to 2005 and 2015.

[NotSparta]

Buoys website is back online. Clear as day now that we have a new warm pool that is strengthening. Through January 18, the buoys snapshot of the subsurface matches closely with 2005 and 2015 so far. Both years were coming off El Nino's. Although the warm anomalies are stronger at this stage compared to 2005 and 2015.

https://i.imgur.com/b2Y3udE.png

We'll have to wait for spring to see what the atmospheric forcing looks like. The warm pool means a slight bias toward +ENSO, but 2005 & 2015 had similar subsfc conditions, the atmosphere made all the difference there

[cycloneye]

Agree with Ventrice about the best word to describe ENSO right now is (MESSY)

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1086999232714821632

[Kingarabian]

In that CFSv2 graphic, if it were to verify, rising air branch of the walker cell is situated a bit more west than what we normally see. So that means there could be more sinking motion over the far eastern Pacific/GOM. But it's a switch from the previous graphic that he tweeted (about a month ago) that showed La Nina forcing developing

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1087000364514246657

[cycloneye]

Here is the CPC 1/22/19 update that has Niño 3.4 up from +0.4C last week to +0.5C this week.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Kingarabian]

Euro has the MJO in phase 5 but quickly takes it into phases 6 and 7. So not much time for the trades to do enough cooling at the subsurface to change things around. There are disagreements in the long range forecast between the GFS and Euro in just how long the MJO sticks in phase 7, but there are a handful of EPS member that amplify the MJO in phase 7. If that happens we could see another WWB.

[WAcyclone]

The Bureau of Meteorology has downgraded its ENSO status to El Nino WATCH:

ENSO Outlook lowered to El Niño WATCH

Recent observations and climate model outlooks suggest the immediate risk of El Niño has passed.

However, there remains an increased likelihood that El Niño will develop later in 2019. The Bureau's ENSO Outlook has therefore moved to El Niño WATCH, meaning there is approximately a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the southern hemisphere autumn or winter.

Tropical Pacific sea surface and sub-surface temperatures remain warmer than average, but since late 2018 they have cooled from El Niño-like values towards ENSO-neutral values. Atmospheric indicators such as cloudiness, trade winds and the Southern Oscillation Index all continue to generally remain within the ENSO-neutral range.

While most climate models indicate ENSO-neutral conditions for the immediate future, the current ocean warmth and likelihood of ongoing warmer than average conditions mean the risk of El Niño remains. Three of eight models suggest that El Niño may establish by mid-2019.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[Kingarabian]

Does the GFS lose its head whenever the MJO enters phase 6/7? It's displaying a very strong MJO amplification in phase 7 once again.



It did the same during late December/early-January only to correct lower.

[Kingarabian]

Subsurface pool is near the dateline now and this is pretty much where the anomalies peak or level off. Let's see if the anomalies warm further than +4C.

[cycloneye]

The weekly CPC update has Niño 3.4 going down fromn +0.5C last week to +0.4C now.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf