Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

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Jag95
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#101 Postby Jag95 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:30 pm

The bad news is that the Euro also shifted the system on Sunday further south and is weaker, and it doesn't tap into the colder air over the Midwest like it did yesterday. The good news is that it shows 2-4 inches across the same area on Wednesday. :lol:

Need that system a little further north next weekend. And deeper, like yesterday.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#102 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:04 pm

Jag95 wrote:The bad news is that the Euro also shifted the system on Sunday further south and is weaker, and it doesn't tap into the colder air over the Midwest like it did yesterday. The good news is that it shows 2-4 inches across the same area on Wednesday. :lol:

Need that system a little further north next weekend. And deeper, like yesterday.


12Z EURO run late this morning had quite a strong 996 mb Low Pressure system near my area in Jacksonville, FL in 168 hours (12Z next Monday) fwiw, then moved it rapidly out to sea afterwards.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#103 Postby Jag95 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 4:13 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
Jag95 wrote:The bad news is that the Euro also shifted the system on Sunday further south and is weaker, and it doesn't tap into the colder air over the Midwest like it did yesterday. The good news is that it shows 2-4 inches across the same area on Wednesday. :lol:

Need that system a little further north next weekend. And deeper, like yesterday.


12Z EURO run late this morning had quite a strong 996 mb Low Pressure system near my area in Jacksonville, FL in 168 hours (12Z next Monday) fwiw, then moved it rapidly out to sea afterwards.


Yeah, 00Z showed it traversing the just south of the coast and started to deepen it in the NE Gulf, the perfect scenario and probably a .1% chance of verifying. Highs on Sunday went from 30's on the 00Z to 50's in the last run. Today it looks more like it takes the system through the central Gulf and starts to deepen off the SW FL coast. Much like the FV3. smh Something to keep an eye on the next few days though. Whatever happens, I think somebody across the deep south will get lucky next week.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#104 Postby shannstone » Mon Jan 21, 2019 4:51 pm

Do any of these show something more than rain for north metro Atlanta? I keep reading southern Mississippi, Alabama are scenarios so it sounds like it would be south Georgia if anything. Anything in the forseeable future? I need some hope.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#105 Postby Jag95 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 5:39 pm

shannstone wrote:Do any of these show something more than rain for north metro Atlanta? I keep reading southern Mississippi, Alabama are scenarios so it sounds like it would be south Georgia if anything. Anything in the forseeable future? I need some hope.


Yeah, but it's still long range which is all over the map. The Canadian and Euro show from 1 to 5 inches in the Atlanta area next week.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#106 Postby shannstone » Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:19 pm

Jag95 wrote:
shannstone wrote:Do any of these show something more than rain for north metro Atlanta? I keep reading southern Mississippi, Alabama are scenarios so it sounds like it would be south Georgia if anything. Anything in the forseeable future? I need some hope.


Yeah, but it's still long range which is all over the map. The Canadian and Euro show from 1 to 5 inches in the Atlanta area next week.

Thank you, I know the models will flip flop this far out but am hoping to get at least a little this year. I appreciate your reply!
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#107 Postby harp » Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:23 pm

I'm in south Louisiana, and I must say, as optimistic as I was a week ago, my optimism is gone. There is really nothing on the operational runs of the GFS that gives me any hope. I hate to say it, but my towel has been thrown in. :cry:
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#108 Postby GTStorm » Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:43 pm

Jag95 wrote:
shannstone wrote:Do any of these show something more than rain for north metro Atlanta? I keep reading southern Mississippi, Alabama are scenarios so it sounds like it would be south Georgia if anything. Anything in the forseeable future? I need some hope.


Yeah, but it's still long range which is all over the map. The Canadian and Euro show from 1 to 5 inches in the Atlanta area next week.


The 12Z Euro snow depth shows about 10 inches through central GA, 2-4 towards the coast. Got a good laugh out of that one.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#109 Postby shannstone » Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:50 pm

harp wrote:I'm in south Louisiana, and I must say, as optimistic as I was a week ago, my optimism is gone. There is really nothing on the operational runs of the GFS that gives me any hope. I hate to say it, but my towel has been thrown in. :cry:


Maybe that can be reverse psychology and will do the trick. Only has worked for me in football games though.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#110 Postby La Breeze » Tue Jan 22, 2019 12:06 am

harp wrote:I'm in south Louisiana, and I must say, as optimistic as I was a week ago, my optimism is gone. There is really nothing on the operational runs of the GFS that gives me any hope. I hate to say it, but my towel has been thrown in. :cry:

South Louisiana here also - throwing my towel in as well.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#111 Postby carolina_73 » Tue Jan 22, 2019 5:08 am

The 00z Euro, Canadian, and GFS look quite depressing for the deep South now. :( Maybe things can still work out in the coming weeks. They were showing some pretty decent snow amounts for SC/NC and points South. We need one of those classic lows that come out of Texas and strengthens while traveling in the Gulf and rides up the EC. That way it can pull in plenty of Gulf moisture in, so maybe everyone gets in on the action! Models have been all over the place the last 5 days. My NWS out of Blacksburg have no clue in their discussion. Confidence is low in their longer range. I guess it's hard for the models to figure out this progressive pattern change ATM?
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#112 Postby Jag95 » Tue Jan 22, 2019 6:33 am

I'm done with long range. Euro went from highs in the 30s on Sunday to a nice beach like upper 50s. In just 2 runs. :lol:
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#113 Postby Agua » Tue Jan 22, 2019 11:16 am

Welp, I'd penciled in a trip up to my old family homeplace in central Mississippi this weekend to see some measurable snow. The Jackson AFD had hinted that a substantial winter event was possible for several days. That's been removed now and any possible event is being pushed out until next week and in very conservative language. Oh well. Although there have been several unusual snow events over the last 10 years in Mississippi in December and early January, typically our window is from mid-January until mid Feb. Models don't look very promising going forward.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#114 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Jan 22, 2019 11:35 pm

Agua wrote:Welp, I'd penciled in a trip up to my old family homeplace in central Mississippi this weekend to see some measurable snow. The Jackson AFD had hinted that a substantial winter event was possible for several days. That's been removed now and any possible event is being pushed out until next week and in very conservative language. Oh well. Although there have been several unusual snow events over the last 10 years in Mississippi in December and early January, typically our window is from mid-January until mid Feb. Models don't look very promising going forward.


I’m not sure why everyone is so down about it. The models do show continued cold. The cold air is always the most difficult thing to have around and it will be here for the next month. It may take until the polar vortex lobe weakens because when it sinks so far south, it can suppress everything. I believe we have yet to see our coldest period.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#115 Postby harp » Tue Jan 22, 2019 11:48 pm

MississippiWx wrote:
Agua wrote:Welp, I'd penciled in a trip up to my old family homeplace in central Mississippi this weekend to see some measurable snow. The Jackson AFD had hinted that a substantial winter event was possible for several days. That's been removed now and any possible event is being pushed out until next week and in very conservative language. Oh well. Although there have been several unusual snow events over the last 10 years in Mississippi in December and early January, typically our window is from mid-January until mid Feb. Models don't look very promising going forward.


I’m not sure why everyone is so down about it. The models do show continued cold. The cold air is always the most difficult thing to have around and it will be here for the next month. It may take until the polar vortex lobe weakens because when it sinks so far south, it can suppress everything. I believe we have yet to see our coldest period.

The GFS continues to show a warm up at the beginning of February, but I believe that was expected?
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#116 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Jan 23, 2019 12:06 am

harp wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:
Agua wrote:Welp, I'd penciled in a trip up to my old family homeplace in central Mississippi this weekend to see some measurable snow. The Jackson AFD had hinted that a substantial winter event was possible for several days. That's been removed now and any possible event is being pushed out until next week and in very conservative language. Oh well. Although there have been several unusual snow events over the last 10 years in Mississippi in December and early January, typically our window is from mid-January until mid Feb. Models don't look very promising going forward.


I’m not sure why everyone is so down about it. The models do show continued cold. The cold air is always the most difficult thing to have around and it will be here for the next month. It may take until the polar vortex lobe weakens because when it sinks so far south, it can suppress everything. I believe we have yet to see our coldest period.

The GFS continues to show a warm up at the beginning of February, but I believe that was expected?


I challenge you to look at the run to run consistency of the GFS past 5 or 6 days. It has been awful. Models are really struggling with the influence of the polar vortex and the progression of the MJO.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#117 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:19 pm

12Z EURO and GFS still showing a reasonable chance of seeing some light snow with the strong polar cold front, which will sweep down through the Deep South on Tuesday and Tuesday night. EURO actually showed more moisture lagging behind the frontal boundary , which would bring the possibility of minor accumulations, and was a bit faster moving the front through than the GFS.

Birmingham WFO currently calling for 40% probability of rain changing to snow on Tuesday

Atlanta WFO 30% snow on Tuesday

We will see how the later runs treat this situation...


I posted the 12Z GFS 126 hour valid 18Z Tuesday Jan 29

Image
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#118 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jan 24, 2019 5:34 pm

18Z GFS running now is showing another potential shortwave disturbance over the Western Gulf of Mexico in 162 hours. 1045 mb Arctic High dome centered over near Paducah, KY in 180 hours. The arctic air will be in place across the Deep South, and this potential disturbance definitely bears watching later this upcoming week! I will be curious to see the 00Z EURO run later tonight for sure.


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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#119 Postby harp » Thu Jan 24, 2019 6:36 pm

^^^^^^^ Yes, I'm in south La., west of New Orleans. This has my attention. It has been showing this solution off and on. Especially the Euro. Keep me posted on your thoughts. Thank you.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#120 Postby GlennOBX » Thu Jan 24, 2019 6:43 pm

northjaxpro wrote:18Z GFS running now is showing another potential shortwave disturbance over the Western Gulf of Mexico in 162 hours. 1045 mb Arctic High dome centered over near Paducah, KY in 180 hours. The arctic air will be in place across the Deep South, and this potential disturbance definitely bears watching later this upcoming week! I will be curious to see the 00Z EURO run later tonight for sure.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019012418/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png


What does the frame just before this show? I'm curious to know if that frame shows anything other than rain over the mid-Atlantic in general, and the NC coast in particular.
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