2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138891
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:17 am

The 2019 thread for models is here. The highlight of this year is the upgrade of FV3 test model of NCEP to operational eliminating the old GFS on January 24.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138891
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:39 pm

Delay of FV3 upgrade very possible based on the recent tests.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1081268461756661761


1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138891
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 05, 2019 7:57 pm

This is getting bad if it continues. No upgrades to models would be one of the things that would not occur.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1081671359191834624


4 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 821
Age: 24
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#4 Postby StruThiO » Sat Jan 05, 2019 8:01 pm

Avila is not amused. :oops:
2 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138891
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:00 pm

Hopefully the shutdown ends very soon because the models may not be fine. :cry:
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138891
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:38 am

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
KatDaddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2815
Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2002 6:23 pm
Location: League City, Texas

Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#7 Postby KatDaddy » Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:25 pm

140 days until the 2019 Hurricane Season begins. Glad the NW GOM was quiet last year after Harvey 2017.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
AJC3
Admin
Admin
Posts: 3866
Age: 60
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: West Melbourne, Florida
Contact:

Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#8 Postby AJC3 » Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:32 pm

Since Atlantic followers are going to be bored to tears for the next several months with absolutely nothing going on, I might as well point out the low latitude cold core baroclinic (non-tropical) cutoff low that the global op-models are forecasting to form in the central Atlantic by next weekend (25-27 JAN). The globals usually have a decent handle on these types of lows, and, assuming it forms, will give peeps something to watch for a few days as it should start off as a symmetric cold core system tooting convection around its circulation due to the cold temps aloft. All the runs are from THU 12Z,
and unless otherwise noted (JAM, NAVGEM), have a verifying time of next SAT (H216) 12Z on 26 JAN

ECM
Image

GFS
Image

FV3
Image

GEM
Image

JMA 12Z FRI
Image

NAVGEM 18Z THU
Image
7 likes   

User avatar
vortextracker
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 113
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2018 2:12 am

Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#9 Postby vortextracker » Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:24 pm

cycloneye wrote:The 2019 thread for models is here. The highlight of this year is the upgrade of FV3 test model of NCEP to operational eliminating the old GFS on January 24.


Kinda liked the old GFS with the tropical teasers.
0 likes   

User avatar
NotSparta
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1644
Age: 22
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#10 Postby NotSparta » Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:08 am

vortextracker wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The 2019 thread for models is here. The highlight of this year is the upgrade of FV3 test model of NCEP to operational eliminating the old GFS on January 24.


Kinda liked the old GFS with the tropical teasers.


FV3 did that too
0 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.

My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1970
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#11 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Jan 20, 2019 2:17 pm

The ECMWF, GFS, CMC and ICON models all continue to show this system. It could acquire some subtropical characteristics, but is unlikely to gain the organization necessary for it to be classified by NHC. Will be interesting to see how it develops.
0 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138891
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#12 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 23, 2019 12:54 pm

Big delays of NCEP on the GFS-FV3 runs.

From Levi Cowan site: NOAA data downloads are very slow today, resulting in model delays. I'm working to retrieve the data.
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138891
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#13 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:39 pm

FV3 was supposed to be upgraded and the old GFS eliminated on January 24th but........

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1088158302440222722


0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#14 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:45 pm

Just following the models for winter weather tracking over the US this winter, the current GFS seems to be doing better than the FV3 GFS. Not sure this model should have been released tomorrow anyway even if the government shutdown was not happening.
0 likes   

User avatar
AJC3
Admin
Admin
Posts: 3866
Age: 60
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: West Melbourne, Florida
Contact:

Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#15 Postby AJC3 » Fri Jan 25, 2019 5:51 am

AJC3 wrote:Since Atlantic followers are going to be bored to tears for the next several months with absolutely nothing going on, I might as well point out the low latitude cold core baroclinic (non-tropical) cutoff low that the global op-models are forecasting to form in the central Atlantic by next weekend (25-27 JAN). The globals usually have a decent handle on these types of lows, and, assuming it forms, will give peeps something to watch for a few days as it should start off as a symmetric cold core system tooting convection around its circulation due to the cold temps aloft. All the runs are from THU 12Z, and unless otherwise noted (JAM, NAVGEM), have a verifying time of next SAT (H216) 12Z on 26 JAN.

ECM https://i.imgur.com/uMgMbTA.png
GFS [https://i.imgur.com/6g9l01l.png
FV3 https://i.imgur.com/E6PwfqH.png
GEM https://i.imgur.com/tdyatsG.png
JMA 12Z FRI https://i.imgur.com/iMzb1a4.png
NAVGEM 18Z THU https://i.imgur.com/c97Xyt3.png


And here we are, 8 days later on the 25th, and the globals were pretty much spot on, as is more often than not the case with these types of lows.

https://goo.gl/zsz3A6
https://goo.gl/nFNouo (time sensitive)
2 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138891
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#16 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 31, 2019 11:07 am

ECMWF will be upgraded on June 2019

ECMWF will get a big upgrade (I mean a big one) on June 2019.

https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FC ... cycle+46r1
5 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138891
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#17 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:42 pm

Great news from NOAA about more improvements on weather modeling. Two excerpts below:

The United States is making exciting changes to how computer models will be developed in the future to support the nation’s weather and climate forecast system. NOAA and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) have joined forces to help the nation’s weather and climate modeling scientists achieve mutual benefits through more strategic collaboration, shared resources and information.

With a new stage set for community modeling, NOAA is poised to upgrade the Global Forecasting System in the months ahead with the addition of a new dynamic core, called the FV3. The FV3-based GFS will be the first NOAA application derived from community modeling and will improve forecast accuracy.

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa ... -framework
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
TorSkk
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 514
Joined: Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:08 am

Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#18 Postby TorSkk » Wed Feb 13, 2019 6:33 am

GFS thinks another Winston is going to strike Fiji


Image
2 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138891
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#19 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 13, 2019 6:06 pm

The FV3-GFS upgrade will now occur on March 20 2019 pending successful 30-day technical tests.

 https://twitter.com/NWSEMC/status/1095791865503404032


1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2159
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#20 Postby xironman » Sat Feb 16, 2019 7:14 am

cycloneye wrote:The FV3-GFS upgrade will now occur on March 20 2019 pending successful 30-day technical tests.

https://twitter.com/NWSEMC/status/1095791865503404032



Look at the replies to the tweet. I don't know how it does with tropical systems but the FV3-GFS has been an unmitigated disaster for mid-latitude weather this winter. Even RaleighWX was mocking it. Here is a snow map for 2/16 from 0z 2/12 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 200&fh=126 showing me with 10" of snowfall on what turned out to be a partly cloudy day in the 40s. Please no. Hopefully they keep the old model running.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: duilaslol, Lizzytiz1, pepecool20 and 78 guests