Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

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northjaxpro
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#121 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jan 24, 2019 8:59 pm

harp wrote:^^^^^^^ Yes, I'm in south La., west of New Orleans. This has my attention. It has been showing this solution off and on. Especially the Euro. Keep me posted on your thoughts. Thank you.


Lots of time to watch this Harp . GFS just came onboard with this potential on.its 18Z run late this afternoon.

Arctic High (1045 mb) in 162 hours over Western KY. Cold air over the Deep South and Lower MS River Valley region will likely be sufficiently in place. Remember, arctic air masses are very stable and shallow. Models have in several instances in my memory struggled badly with forecasting arctic airmasses. These extremely cold and shallow air masses can sink farther southward than the models can decipher. They can really bust temperature forecasts big time!

So, always in these situations, there is a decent chance that the temperatures could be colder than what the models are indicating. The 12Z Canadian was indicating potential temperatures in the teens across portions of the Deep South by Wednesday morning of next week. It was the coldest of the models for the region into next week. However, it is possible it could verify.

Also, we will have to see if the shortwave, if it holds up in future runs, will stay suppressed in the GOM or move inland between 162 hr - 198 hr. Moisture that moves inland during this time period could potentially lead to freezing rain event in areas. (warm nose near the coast)

One other potential is to see if we get phasing from this . If that happens we could be looking at quite a winter storm. I don't see that yet. but something that is possible and to monitor in the next several days of model runs.


This also can be gone too on the next run or two also :D Oh the fun of the models huh?

One thing is certain, it will be significantly colder into next week for the entire region.

I will be watching trends to see just how the models may are handling the arctic air mass next week.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:08 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#122 Postby harp » Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:03 pm

Once again, thank you for your response. This definitely has my attention.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#123 Postby harp » Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:13 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
harp wrote:^^^^^^^ Yes, I'm in south La., west of New Orleans. This has my attention. It has been showing this solution off and on. Especially the Euro. Keep me posted on your thoughts. Thank you.


Lots of time to watch this Harp . GFS just came onboard with this potential on.its 18Z run late this afternoon.

Arctic High (1045 mb) in 162 hours over Western KY. Cold air over the Deep South and Lower MS River Valley region will likely be sufficiently in place. Remember, arctic air masses are very stable and shallow. Models have in several instances in my memory struggled badly with forecasting arctic airmasses. These extremely cold and shallow air masses can sink farther southward than the models can decipher. They can really bust temperature forecasts big time!

So, always in these situations, there is a decent chance that the temperatures could be colder than what the models are indicating. The 12Z Canadian was indicating potential temperatures in the teens across portions of the Deep South by Wednesday morning of next week. It was the coldest of the models for the region into next week. However, it is possible it could verify.

Also, we will have to see if the shortwave, if it holds up in future runs, will stay suppressed in the GOM or move inland between 162 hr - 198 hr. Moisture that moves inland during this time period could potentially lead to freezing rain event in areas. (warm nose near the coast)

One other potential is to see if we get phasing from this . If that happens we could be looking at quite a winter storm. I don't see that yet. but something that is possible and to monitor in the next several days of model runs.


This also can be gone too on the next run or two also :D Oh the fun of the models huh?

One thing is certain, it will be significantly colder into next week for the entire region.

I will be watching trends to see just how the models may are handling the arctic air mass next week.


What seems to be happening is that the moisture is coming down with this clipper, and when it crosses Lake Ponchartrain, it seems to dissipate. Sometimes the models show it more than other times. The lake has a big influence on our weather here.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#124 Postby Jag95 » Fri Jan 25, 2019 9:52 am

Hopefully we see some positive trends heading into the short range over the next couple of days. It will be interesting to see what the NAM sees when it gets in range in another couple of runs.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#125 Postby Hammy » Fri Jan 25, 2019 5:31 pm

Looks like models are again trending away from my area getting snow. Probably time to give up for the season
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#126 Postby harp » Fri Jan 25, 2019 6:10 pm

Hammy wrote:Looks like models are again trending away from my area getting snow. Probably time to give up for the season


Don't know where you are.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#127 Postby Hammy » Fri Jan 25, 2019 7:05 pm

harp wrote:
Hammy wrote:Looks like models are again trending away from my area getting snow. Probably time to give up for the season


Don't know where you are.


Winder, just outside of Athens.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#128 Postby Agua » Fri Jan 25, 2019 7:07 pm

As of this afternoon, the Jackson AFD is putting accumulating snow into the forecast for Monday night into Tuesday for Central Mississippi. Hate that it wasn't on the weekend where I could experience it. Can't have everything though. It never snows along the Coast, and understandably so. We have gotten some impressive sleet though over the last few years. [ETA - It's pretty hard to get accumulating snow south of about Mendenhall, but it does happen from time to time. Over the last 10 years I know Collins and even Hattiesburg have had an inch or more a time or two]
Last edited by Agua on Fri Jan 25, 2019 7:12 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#129 Postby Jag95 » Fri Jan 25, 2019 7:07 pm

Still a ways off so I'm not writing this off yet. The 12Z Euro is slightly more favorable with about half of its members showing a changeover to snow into Southern MS and AL. Jackson NWS has rain/snow as likely in Hattiesburg Tuesday morning.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#130 Postby MississippiWx » Fri Jan 25, 2019 9:30 pm

Agua wrote:As of this afternoon, the Jackson AFD is putting accumulating snow into the forecast for Monday night into Tuesday for Central Mississippi. Hate that it wasn't on the weekend where I could experience it. Can't have everything though. It never snows along the Coast, and understandably so. We have gotten some impressive sleet though over the last few years. [ETA - It's pretty hard to get accumulating snow south of about Mendenhall, but it does happen from time to time. Over the last 10 years I know Collins and even Hattiesburg have had an inch or more a time or two]


Hattiesburg had a 7 inch snow in December and a 2-3 inch snow in January of last winter alone.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#131 Postby MississippiWx » Fri Jan 25, 2019 9:33 pm

Jag95 wrote:Still a ways off so I'm not writing this off yet. The 12Z Euro is slightly more favorable with about half of its members showing a changeover to snow into Southern MS and AL. Jackson NWS has rain/snow as likely in Hattiesburg Tuesday morning.


Models, for now, are trending colder each run. Gotta hope they keep it up because they have trended wetter as well for Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#132 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Jan 25, 2019 9:36 pm

MississippiWx wrote:
Jag95 wrote:Still a ways off so I'm not writing this off yet. The 12Z Euro is slightly more favorable with about half of its members showing a changeover to snow into Southern MS and AL. Jackson NWS has rain/snow as likely in Hattiesburg Tuesday morning.


Models, for now, are trending colder each run. Gotta hope they keep it up because they have trended wetter as well for Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.


The trend is your friend. Baton Rouge calling for a low of 36 with around a quarter inch of rain. If the cold can outrun the precip then we are in business. Even if only half of it turns to snow that would be a nice event for us.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#133 Postby Agua » Fri Jan 25, 2019 9:41 pm

MississippiWx wrote:
Agua wrote:As of this afternoon, the Jackson AFD is putting accumulating snow into the forecast for Monday night into Tuesday for Central Mississippi. Hate that it wasn't on the weekend where I could experience it. Can't have everything though. It never snows along the Coast, and understandably so. We have gotten some impressive sleet though over the last few years. [ETA - It's pretty hard to get accumulating snow south of about Mendenhall, but it does happen from time to time. Over the last 10 years I know Collins and even Hattiesburg have had an inch or more a time or two]


Hattiesburg had a 7 inch snow in December and a 2-3 inch snow in January of last winter alone.



I knew there had been a few freak snows within recent years, that's why I mentioned the heat island known as H'Bush. But that's an extreme outlier. It even snowed 2x down here last year - one time maybe a 1/4 accumulated for about 20 minutes before melting. But those two events were only the 3rd and 4th times I've seen it snow down here in 22 years. Last year was a freakish season.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#134 Postby Jag95 » Fri Jan 25, 2019 10:03 pm

The NAM is starting to get in range now and it shows central and northern MS getting a really good snowfall at the end of the run.

0Z Canadian and GFS are dryer. The Euro is a little dryer in north AL/MS but has shifted the snow line a little further south into the northern parts of the coastal counties of MS/AL/FL.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#135 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:54 am

Latest 06Z NAM this morning showing isolated areas of potential 3 inch snowfall accumulations in Northern MS. Areas in North Alabama and North Georgia could receive 1 to 2 inches with the polar cold front sweeping through the region on Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Also trace to 1/4 inch snow amounts showing across South MS, South AL and as well.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#136 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Jan 26, 2019 5:05 pm

The 18Z NAM has expanded the snowfall potential southwest across to Northern Louisiana, where it is showing potential of up to 2 inches there. on Tuesday and upwards to 1/2 inch to 1 inch potential across Central Louisiana.

This is in addition to the other areas mentioned earlier across the Deep South from the 06Z NAM analysis. The polar frontal boundary looks like it may provide a nice snow event during Tuesday, more than initially expected even just a couple of days ago.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#137 Postby BigB0882 » Sat Jan 26, 2019 5:32 pm

I wish this could shift a little further south with the snow but I think/assume places like Baton Rouge will miss out and have a cold rain.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#138 Postby harp » Sat Jan 26, 2019 6:21 pm

BigB0882 wrote:I wish this could shift a little further south with the snow but I think/assume places like Baton Rouge will miss out and have a cold rain.

From what I understand, you could get snow. I'm just west of New Orleans in Harahan and hoping that chance spreads my way.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#139 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Jan 26, 2019 8:02 pm

Mobile, AL WFO now has included rain mixing with snow, along and just north and west of I-65 corridor in SW Alabama on Tuesday morning.

Also Hattiesburg, MS is showing 60% probability of snow likely on Tuesday morning, with at least up to an inch accumulation possible there.

Hattiesburg has seen several snow events there in recent years, including a report of snow flurries there just in the last week.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#140 Postby Agua » Sat Jan 26, 2019 8:41 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Mobile, AL WFO now has included rain mixing with snow, along and just north and west of I-65 corridor in SW Alabama on Tuesday morning.

Also Hattiesburg, MS is showing 60% probability of snow likely on Tuesday morning, with at least up to an inch accumulation possible there.

Hattiesburg has seen several snow events there in recent years, including a report of snow flurries there just in the last week.


Oh, it will snow in Hattiesburg, no question. Accumulations over an inch are rare, though. It takes about 3" of snow to fully blanket the ground.
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