ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

I think we could see another WWB fairly soon. GFS and Euro continue to show a huge area of -VP200 anomalies sitting near the dateline @ the equator and slowly move those anomalies over the CPAC.

[Ntxw]

ONI has updated for OND at +0.9C. Since 1950, every OND with 0.9C or greater has achieved officially an El Nino (hard not to because the fall-off is still enough). It looks to me by March the CPC, much like in 2014-2015, will have no choice but to declare it so after the fact by their metrics. You can already eyeball NDJ as 0.7C or so and DJF as possibly 0.6C or 0.5C exrapolating. 2014-15 peaked even lower and got it.

[Kingarabian]

Euro and the CFS now show the MJO going into phase 8.
Probably why the CFS is showing a pretty substantial WWB over the dateline. Don't quite believe it just yet.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1092031733560680448

[Kingarabian]

Yup.

Heading into mid February:

GFS continues to be weird and has the MJO greatly amplifying in phase 7.
CFS gets the MJO into phase 8.


Euro gets the MJO into phase 8 and amplifies it much more now.


The GFS solution if it verifies means there's a great chance of a WWB over the WPAC and generating another downwelling Kelvin wave. The CFS and Euro solutions if they were to verify means a WWB over the dateline or closer to the CPAC which would strengthen the warm pool and warm the SST's in the Nino regions.

[NotSparta]

:uarrow: Yup.

Heading into mid February:

GFS continues to be weird and has the MJO greatly amplifying in phase 7.
CFS gets the MJO into phase 8.
https://i.imgur.com/EH3S0Qc.png

Euro gets the MJO into phase 8 and amplifies it much more now.
https://i.imgur.com/LTo3n6j.png

The GFS solution if it verifies means there's a great chance of a WWB over the WPAC and generating another downwelling Kelvin wave. The CFS and Euro solutions if they were to verify means a WWB over the dateline or closer to the CPAC which would strengthen the warm pool and warm the SST's in the Nino regions.

I'd go with CFS, it has done quite well this winter. The GEFS has been overamplifying the MJO

[StruThiO]

[cycloneye]

Niño 3.4 will be down to +0.3C in the Weekly update that will be up soon.

[cycloneye]

Niño 3.4 will be down to +0.3C in the Weekly update that will be up soon.

https://i.imgur.com/ERpPXuq.gif

And here is the text of the 2/4/19 Weekly CPC update

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Kingarabian]

Today's CFS run shows the MJO in phase 8 with much higher amplification, very similar to the GFS. If this materializes then there a lot of potential for a huge WWB to take place between the WPAC and CPAC.

[StruThiO]

Today's CFS run shows the MJO in phase 8 with much higher amplification, very similar to the GFS. If this materializes then there a lot of potential for a huge WWB to take place between the WPAC and CPAC.

[Ntxw]

ONI for NDJ came in at +0.8C. Two more to go.

[Kingarabian]

Raw westerlies coming up on the GFS:

[Kingarabian]

PDO has been warming up since the start of the year:



Showing this graph because JISAO hasn't been updated in quite a while.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1093492514257031171

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1093531926344929282

[Ntxw]

If this comes into fruition, it's a significant WWB. Game-changer kind of stuff when you're talking max raw winds.

[Shell Mound]

If we are going to see a full-blown El Niño in 2019, we may as well seek another super Niño à la 2015-16. A very strong WWB could significantly strengthen the subsurface warm pool. If this upcoming WWB were to fully materialise, then I would definitely expect not just El Niño, but also a potentially strong or even very strong event. Since 2015-16, the Pacific seems to have entered into a subsurface phase that retains more heat than previously, and thus makes stronger and/or more persistent El Niño events more plausible, at least when other factors line up.

[CyclonicFury]

If we are going to see a full-blown El Niño in 2019, we may as well seek another super Niño à la 2015-16. A very strong WWB could significantly strengthen the subsurface warm pool. If this upcoming WWB were to fully materialise, then I would definitely expect not just El Niño, but also a potentially strong or even very strong event. Since 2015-16, the Pacific seems to have entered into a subsurface phase that retains more heat than previously, and thus makes stronger and/or more persistent El Niño events more plausible, at least when other factors line up.

I highly doubt that. Super El Niño events are rare and it would be quite unusual to see another super Niño so soon. But has the Pacific really entered a state that makes El Niño more likely? El Niño busted in 2017 and struggled to get going in 2018.

[Kingarabian]

Time frame getting closer. IF this materializes, I've never seen anomalies this strong.