SIO: Funani - Tropical Cyclone

[Nancy Smar]

98S INVEST 190202 1200 9.1S 70.9E SHEM 15 1010

[wxman57]

La Reunion is calling it a weak low. 3Z ScatSat indicated a well-defined LLC with 25kt winds. Looks close to TC strength now.

[Nancy Smar]

WTXS21 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.0S 67.7E TO 17.9S 64.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
042030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4S
67.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.7S 67.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 67.1E, APPROXIMATELY 645
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 041721Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A
041722Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-15KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-
30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS
WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
052100Z.//
NNNN

[Nancy Smar]

WTIO31 FMEE 050016 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/8/20182019
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 8
2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 05/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.7 S / 65.8 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE CINQ DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 9 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/12 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: NO:
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 05/02/2019 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 06/02/2019 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 06/02/2019 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 07/02/2019 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 07/02/2019 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 08/02/2019 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/02/2019 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 38.7 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5-

[vortextracker]

https://imgur.com/rZJD267
Still looked open on the west on a earlier pass. May have closed off since.

[Nancy Smar]

SH, 12, 2019020512, , BEST, 0, 156S, 645E, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 70, 50, 0, 1008, 175, 45, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, TWELVE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, shC82019 to sh122019,

[wxman57]

Reunion Island, official RSMC has Dvorak 2.5, which would generally mean it's a TC. However, their advisories use 10-min winds. That means that even though this system liely has 35kt winds (as indicated by ScatSat), they're keeping it a depression.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/ForceThirteen/status/1092989287887441920

[wxman57]

Nice clearing out eye on this, uh, 50kt "tropical storm".

[TorSkk]

A. 12S (FUNANI)

B. 06/1130Z

C. 17.4S

D. 64.4E

E. ONE/MET-8

F. T5.0/5.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY A OW EYE SURROUNDED BY
B AND EMBEDDED IN LG FOR A DT=5.5 AFTER ADDING 0.5 FOR AN EYE
ADJUSTMENT. MET=4.0 PT=4.5. FT IS BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION WHICH
YIELDS A 6HR FT AVERAGE OF 5.0.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

MFR still calling this a severe tropical storm, not forecast to reach Intense TC (major) intensity. JTWC went with 65 kn at 12Z and a peak of 105

[wxman57]

Looks like it's at 90-95 kts now.

[TorSkk]

MFR upgrades to Tropical Cyclone intensity with 85 kn, they think it may have peaked.
JTWC at 90 kn