Florida Weather

[psyclone]

February and March is Florida's spring severe season. It will be interesting to see if we can cook up any squall lines during the next couple of months

[TheStormExpert]

Geez!! Talk about no in between! From lack of rain to rain overload in just a short period. Picked up over 8 inches in the last seven days and just over 10 inches since the 1st of the year!

Meanwhile places like Miami, Naples, etc. are probably like what rain? The focus today and yesterday has been in coastal Palm Beach County.

[northjaxpro]

We are getting a little bit of light rainfall this morning as yet another shortwave disturbance traverses through the peninsula into today. This particular one will not be anywhere as potent as last weekend's soaker. So far just under a quarter of an inch has been received this morning, as well as about a third of an inch yesterday afternoon.

It looks as if the El Nino pattern we have had in place since the beginning of November 2018 will continue well into the spring season. It certainly has bought us a very wet period of weather in intervals across much of North and Central Florida for these nearly past 3 months now.

Old Man Winter will not be visiting us for quite awhile. There is a greater probability that many of my Central and South Florida neighbors may not have to worry about cold weather threats the rest of the way, barring any significant changes with the NAO. I do not have that luxury up here in Jax as compared to the rest of you all down state. I know this all too well of course. We still will have threat of potential freezes up here at least up until mid-March. I can't even think about spring garden planting yet for at least another six weeks. It is still too risky!

The Southeast/Eastern seaboard ridge will be flexing its muscle for the foreseeable future. It appears that much of February will be under the influence of our good ole reliable shield (the ridge) much to the delight of many of my respective neighbors down the peninsula. It will bring spring-like warmth to the region.The only hindrances will be potentially dodging the periodic shortwave southern jet disturbances looking through at least inro mid-month. As Psyclone referenced, we will need to definitely stay cognizant to the potential of severe weather these shortwaves can bring to the area as we approach spring storm season.

So enjoy the upcoming spring weather beginning in earnest this weekend and will last well into at least the next couple of weeks. I have been very busy not only with work, but licking some proverbial wounds from missing on the thinking that the NAO was going to go negative. I was among the many who had anticipated that the NAO would go into the negative since the second half of January. The set-up of the overall pattern was all there for the NAO to go negative, including the GEFS, which in its teleconnections forecast in mid- January, also pointed to an - NAO forecast by the beginning of February.

Mother Nature is boss for sure, and had her own idea as it turned out. This is the nature of the business. You will get things right, but you will bust on some things too! We did drop down to 30 degrees back on Thursday morning, which is the coldest of this yet another mild winter season we have had thus far.

Forecasting the NAO is definitely one of the biggest and most difficult elements in weather. I have indicated numerous times on the incredible streak we are now experiencing across the Florida peninsula. Again, we have not experienced a major impact from a negative NAO during meteorolgical winter since 2010. It is among the most fascinating streaks I have seen in my years living here. I put this right up there with the 11-year streak we went without a hurricane landfall. Hermine ended that streak in 2016.

I have caught up a bit for lost time on the thread rambling on a bit here. We are extremely blessed people folks avoiding the recent PV onslaught. I see some of Southeast Florida has been getting some much needed rainfall, but apparently not everyone down there, according to StormExpert indicated in the earlier post above. Psyclone and NDG are getting their early start to the spring warmth enjoyment

Looks like everyone is doing OK right now I hope!

Enjoy the weekend everyone, and for those watching the Super Bowl.

P.S. after what happened to the Saints in the NFC title game, I am boycotting watching the Super Bowl. A terrible injustice to what happened to Saints on that no-call psass interference play. The Rams should not even be in this game. Plus, I have a strong dislike toward the New England Patriots.

[gatorcane]

Well said northjaxpro. It does look like Central and Sourh Florida will escape a severe freeze event this year. But like the long drought of hurricanes which came to an abrupt end in 2016 for the state, one of these winters a severe freeze will impact the state. History tells us that.

Looking forward to a long stretch of beautiful weather as the SE ridge flexes its muscle. Looks like beach weather has returned!

[NDG]

With the MJO now in phase 7 moving into 8 & 1 over the next couple of weeks I am sure we will see a cool once again in the second half of February, but the good thing that the sun angle will will higher so it will be a feel good to the air during that time.

I wouldn't say that all of central FL has had its luck of not having any damaging freeze continue, last year it was broken when the Orlando area had an unexpected moderate to hard freeze when temps in this area dropped as low as the Jax area into the mid 20s, what saved us from being as damaging as 2010 was that the number of hours below freezing was of a shorter duration. My mango tree was fairly damaged and my sea grape trees were damaged all the way down to parts of the main trunks.
This year I only have had light frost a couple times but only on the roof tops, not even on the vegetation. All my tropical plants are as green as they can be, keeping my fingers crossed.

[northjaxpro]

The freeze you referenced NDG last winter 2018 did get us here down into the mid 20s, although technically it still was not officially into a negative NAO. Tbat was a neutral NAO even then at that time.

[NDG]

:uarrow: The freeze you referenced NDG last winter 2018 did get us here down into the mid 20s, although technically it still was not officially into a negative NAO. Tbat was a neutral NAO even then at that time.

What was surprising that January ‘18 morning is that you guys were not that much colder that us here in Orlando.

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: The freeze you referenced NDG last winter 2018 did get us here down into the mid 20s, although technically it still was not officially into a negative NAO. Tbat was a neutral NAO even then at that time.[/quote

What was surprising that January ‘18 morning is that you guys were not that much colder that us here in Orlando.

Yeah, we were in a +PNA during then, and we had that cold arctic air already well entrenched in place since late Dec '17 into early January '18 across the Northern Plains and Northern Tier of the U.S. It was that cold air in place that played a major role in spawning that winter storm in last winter up in Southeast Georgia, which we both road tripped seeing NDG.

That was a very rare instance having a hard freeze here in Jax without a negative NAO.

[psyclone]

It was not difficult to find evidence of the freeze of '18 around here for months.. since we had gone 8 years without a freeze we had plenty of inventory to damage. And this was an advective event which tends to cause more damage. I am so thankful we got a pass this year from what could have easily been "the big one". Hats off to those that recognized that late January/early Feb pattern conducive to severe cold. The stars came close to aligning and January (after the first few days) turned out to be pretty chilly. Here's to hoping for some good squall lines to keep the pollen in check (things are coated in yellow here now) and some decent weather for the state fair!

[boca]

I’m not happy with 10 months and heat and humidity coming back, I want a few more cold fronts at least thru March.I hoping the NAO goes negative which it won’t by looking at the forecast. My car thermometer already said 81 degrees. I will take 50s at night, here’s to wishcasting.

[FlaWeatherDude]

That won't be til the following week(around Feb 12th). Til then we're in the 80's starting early next week.

[floridasun78]

happy see 80s hope spring temp will stay for some time this up and down temp affect me by gaving me and wife cold i see ground hog saw shadow so six more week of winter

[HURRICANELONNY]

Nope Phil did not see his shadow. Winter over.
https://www.google.com/search?source=hp ... 8sIMiUqN3A

[NDG]

So far all agencies, especially JB, that were calling for well below average temps for this winter across all of the gulf coast & FL are going to bust big time, just about every one across this area is averaging near to above average temps so far this meteorological winter which should continue at least over the next 10-14 days. Even if it cools down in the second half of Feb it will not be enough to put us below average.

[boca]

It’s amazing how badly all these agencies busted this year. We still have many years to go as far as forecasts go but we should eventually get there.

[floridasun78]

happy see 80s hope spring temp will stay for some time this up and down temp affect me by gaving me and wife cold i see ground hog didnt saw shadow so six more week of winter

[psyclone]

This thread is dead when the weather is at its best. This stretch of exceptional weather looks to encompass a good bit of the state fair too...breaking what is often a weather curse.

[boca]

I agree psyclone the thread is as dead talking tropics in February, but there is nothing going on with the SE ridge deflecting everything away from us.I’m not ready for the heat and humidity yet.

[mlfreeman]

What do the long range outlooks indicate for us in N. Fl?

I figure the obligatory March temporary (2-3 day) cooldown if nothing else then put your coats away.

[FlaWeatherDude]

I don't mind temps in the 80's as long as dewpoints are well below 60 like today in Orlando.

Temp: 81
Dewpoint: 52