Cerlin wrote:I know that the March 4th ice storm is somewhat of a joke but I have been seeing a pattern with the first few days of March being the target area for some potential winter weather. The GFS and FV3 have repeatedly been showing some winter weather bouts for parts of TX. Of course, it won’t verify like always, but at least it’s not hopeless.
The models are picking up on "something" happening in early March. That "something" may turn out to be just another moderately cold front like this week's or last week's, or it could turn out to be a little colder with the potential for some winter precipitation. The place to keep an eye on over the coming weeks is western Canada (British Columbia and Alberta). Currently, temps are well above zero there. Last week, the temps there hit -45F. Can that area "recharge" with cold air between now and early March? GFS suggests at least SOME cross-polar flow in late February, bring colder Arctic air into NW Canada. However, the current GFS run indicates a pattern similar to past events - some cold air coming down but not enough for much winter precip.
There's certainly a chance for some significant winter precip in the D-FW area around early March. However, I'm not running to "kick that football" just yet. I don't like the look on Lucy's face.