2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#41 Postby SconnieCane » Sat Feb 16, 2019 9:58 am

:larrow: Doesn't look too promising for early-mid season activity. However as we saw just last year that doesn't mean much.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#42 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Feb 16, 2019 11:37 am

cycloneye wrote:ECMWF Febuary update of MSLP for June,July and August.

https://i.imgur.com/v7SZsDv.png

When was the last time ECMWF showed below normal pressures over the Atlantic during the season? I'm pretty sure it has shown above average pressures every year since 2014. However it has a higher chance of verifying this year due to the possibility of El Niño.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#43 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Feb 16, 2019 3:09 pm

cycloneye wrote:ECMWF Febuary update of MSLP for June,July and August.

https://i.imgur.com/v7SZsDv.png

Damn, looks pretty bad for me.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#44 Postby NotSparta » Sun Feb 17, 2019 11:12 am

Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:ECMWF Febuary update of MSLP for June,July and August.

https://i.imgur.com/v7SZsDv.png

Damn, looks pretty bad for me.


As is the usual for euro output
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#45 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:51 pm

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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#46 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Feb 17, 2019 7:01 pm

ECMWF pretty much says that every year and is usually wrong, to be honest.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#47 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Feb 18, 2019 1:44 am

Different year, same forecast.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#49 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:08 am

A simple glance at Nino 3.4 current trends and the NMME 3.4 model forecasts are enough to tell one how badly they're already doing at predicting the ENSO this year. Nino 3.4 would have to do a hard turn indeed right now to match any of the predicted model outputs. I think this year will be dead on neutral.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#50 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 21, 2019 3:39 pm

The warm uptick of the past few weeks in MDR are litterally over for now.

Image

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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#51 Postby hurricanetrack » Fri Feb 22, 2019 4:12 pm

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Strange how the CDAS looks nothing like the Noaa/NESDIS SST anomaly map. Huge difference here.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#52 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Feb 22, 2019 4:26 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomwne.gif

Strange how the CDAS looks nothing like the Noaa/NESDIS SST anomaly map. Huge difference here.

The NOAA/NESDIS map is warm biased because I think it uses a base period during the 1980s/early 1990s for its anomaly. However, the CDAS charts on Tropical Tidbits are noisy/prone to sharp changes and the sharp SSTA drop in the Atlantic MDR may just be temporary.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#53 Postby StruThiO » Fri Feb 22, 2019 5:07 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
Strange how the CDAS looks nothing like the Noaa/NESDIS SST anomaly map. Huge difference here.
The NOAA/NESDIS map is warm biased because I think it uses a base period during the 1980s/early 1990s for its anomaly. However, the CDAS charts on Tropical Tidbits are noisy/prone to sharp changes and the sharp SSTA drop in the Atlantic MDR may just be temporary.


Wasn't there a SAL outbreak earlier this February? Perhaps that could be causing the noisy signal
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#54 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 22, 2019 5:18 pm

StruThiO wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:
Strange how the CDAS looks nothing like the Noaa/NESDIS SST anomaly map. Huge difference here.
The NOAA/NESDIS map is warm biased because I think it uses a base period during the 1980s/early 1990s for its anomaly. However, the CDAS charts on Tropical Tidbits are noisy/prone to sharp changes and the sharp SSTA drop in the Atlantic MDR may just be temporary.


Wasn't there a SAL outbreak earlier this February? Perhaps that could be causing the noisy signal


Right now there is a good deal of SAL in MDR if you look at the graphic at first post.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#55 Postby NotSparta » Fri Feb 22, 2019 6:05 pm

cycloneye wrote:
StruThiO wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:
Strange how the CDAS looks nothing like the Noaa/NESDIS SST anomaly map. Huge difference here.
The NOAA/NESDIS map is warm biased because I think it uses a base period during the 1980s/early 1990s for its anomaly. However, the CDAS charts on Tropical Tidbits are noisy/prone to sharp changes and the sharp SSTA drop in the Atlantic MDR may just be temporary.


Wasn't there a SAL outbreak earlier this February? Perhaps that could be causing the noisy signal


Right now there is a good deal of SAL in MDR if you look at the graphic at first post.


Since CDAS (& OISSTv2) use satellite estimates, they will show lower SSTs than actual, due to the aerosols in the air. However the NOAA/NESDIS maps are still biased warm
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#56 Postby chaser1 » Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:48 pm

Hey Luis, just a thought. Any consideration to open up the Annual 2019 Atlantic Season Activity Prediction contest earlier this year? Just throwing in my own vote for it given our eventual increase in discussion about the so many forecast and changing factors (ENSO, SAL, SST's, wind patterns, African rainfall, etc) as we move deeper into Spring and start eye-balling June 1st. Also, seems that we've lately seen an increase in sub-tropical development to the point that nothing would totally surprise me in terms of early baroclinic transformative development in some point within the Atlantic basin.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#57 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 02, 2019 5:05 pm

chaser1 wrote:Hey Luis, just a thought. Any consideration to open up the Annual 2019 Atlantic Season Activity Prediction contest earlier this year? Just throwing in my own vote for it given our eventual increase in discussion about the so many forecast and changing factors (ENSO, SAL, SST's, wind patterns, African rainfall, etc) as we move deeper into Spring and start eye-balling June 1st. Also, seems that we've lately seen an increase in sub-tropical development to the point that nothing would totally surprise me in terms of early baroclinic transformative development in some point within the Atlantic basin.


Announcement: I will start the 2019 S2K poll on April 15 instead of May 1. :D I know that date is after the experts TSR and CSU forecasts are going to be released but I dont think being those out there are the most important thing the members base their individual numbers.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#58 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 09, 2019 10:04 am

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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#59 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Mar 09, 2019 2:29 pm


Where about in the North Atlantic? Tropics or Subtropics? Either way it would mean little to no difference likely in the outcome of things if you have a full blown El Niño like some are saying may come to fruition.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#60 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Mar 09, 2019 2:54 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:

Where about in the North Atlantic? Tropics or Subtropics? Either way it would mean little to no difference likely in the outcome of things if you have a full blown El Niño like some are saying may come to fruition.

I think even in a moderate-strong El Niño, a warm MDR would likely make the difference between a well below average season and a slightly below average season. Look at 2015 for this. The MDR was fairly active that season including a major hurricane. As long as the WAM remains strong as it has been in recent years, I don't think we will be looking at historic inactivity this season even if we have a strong El Niño.
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