Texas Winter 2018-2019

[TheProfessor]

This has been the story of my experience here in Ohio. So close, but no cigar. I'd really love to finally cash in on a bullseye of a big storm. Columbus is the city on the right with the 3-4" of snow btw.



Edit this was a storm back in January, but it's been the biggest storm for the ILN area so far this winter.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Very light graupel up this way.

[gboudx]

I'll enjoy next weeks teens and 20s given that it'll be 90F again in no time!

And yes, I hope its an active severe weather season!

I need good shelf clouds and wall clouds!

As long as it doesn’t affect anyone works for me.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Man the temps early next week look cold. What a crying shame if we can't even get a flurry or two out of this. Coldest air of the season and we may not score. I am done after this next week. The towel will be thrown. Bring on warm days and plenty of spring storms. I hope to witness some serious thunder and lightning all the way into June.

I'm ready for that, except for the last weekend in March (NASCAR weekend) Because storms at the races are a pain in my A$. I'm so ready for a hot spring and some storms.

[Cerlin]

Man the temps early next week look cold. What a crying shame if we can't even get a flurry or two out of this. Coldest air of the season and we may not score. I am done after this next week. The towel will be thrown. Bring on warm days and plenty of spring storms. I hope to witness some serious thunder and lightning all the way into June.

I'm ready for that, except for the last weekend in March (NASCAR weekend) Because storms at the races are a pain in my A$. I'm so ready for a hot spring and some storms.

Last spring race weekend was super cold if I remember correctly...

[Cerlin]

HRRR just has no moisture at all for most of TX.

[gpsnowman]

Already down to 35 according to my NBC app. Forecasted low is 32. How low will we go??

[TarrantWx]

Already down to 35 according to my NBC app. Forecasted low is 32. How low will we go??

It's already down to 29 in Northern Tarrant County with some fog and mist.

[Cerlin]

Down to 32 where I’m at in the Colony tonight.

[gpsnowman]

Already down to 35 according to my NBC app. Forecasted low is 32. How low will we go??

It's already down to 29 in Northern Tarrant County with some fog and mist.

The freezing drizzle line was just to the northwest of Tarrant County earlier. Wonder if I will wake up to a frozen car in the morning.

[Haris]

As of 730PM, it is 35F at KDFW.

For inquiring minds, here are what the computer models had yesterday for this timeframe...

YESTERDAYS 12Z GFS: 58F
YESTERDAYS 12Z ECM:63F
YESTERDAYS 12Z NAM: 48F
YESTERDAYS 18Z HRRR: 57F

Umm.... So... Yeah...

[Cerlin]

As of 730PM, it is 35F at KDFW.

For inquiring minds, here are what the computer models had yesterday for this timeframe...

YESTERDAYS 12Z GFS: 58F
YESTERDAYS 12Z ECM:63F
YESTERDAYS 12Z NAM: 48F
YESTERDAYS 18Z HRRR: 57F

Umm.... So... Yeah...

These are the kind of stats I like. We still have a lot of work to do before models are super accurate.

[Brent]

As of 730PM, it is 35F at KDFW.

For inquiring minds, here are what the computer models had yesterday for this timeframe...

YESTERDAYS 12Z GFS: 58F
YESTERDAYS 12Z ECM:63F
YESTERDAYS 12Z NAM: 48F
YESTERDAYS 18Z HRRR: 57F

Umm.... So... Yeah...

even the cold NAM was too warm

[gpsnowman]

As of 730PM, it is 35F at KDFW.

For inquiring minds, here are what the computer models had yesterday for this timeframe...

YESTERDAYS 12Z GFS: 58F
YESTERDAYS 12Z ECM:63F
YESTERDAYS 12Z NAM: 48F
YESTERDAYS 18Z HRRR: 57F

Umm.... So... Yeah...

44 is the forecasted high for tomorrow in DFW with a mostly cloudy day. Depending on how low we go, a day in the 30's is likely Thursday. Ralph's Weather touched on this scenario yesterday I believe.

[Ntxw]

Models don't always handle shallow cold air masses well in cases of EPO dumps. The busts in Oklahoma this morning should have been a telling sign.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

19/34 for DFW Monday would verbatim be record setting... record low is 20 in 2002 record low max is 35 in 1960 so there's that

Also coldest of the entire winter

Monday Night will also be 4 years since DFW saw more than a dusting of snow

You need to move to Seattle or Houston if you want to see snow.

Or Vegas or even the LA suburbs

Or Maui or the mountains near Tijuana.

[CaptinCrunch]

Yeah, big bust on forecasted temps. Today's high fell 4 short of the forecast, and I'm on board for maybe 39 for a high tomorrow . Not sure where Delkus is getting highs near 60 for Friday and Saturday before the front, I'm going upper 40s.

Like I said earlier and NTXW stated, models dont handle this type of cold dense air, so whatever the models say for temps, take 10 off and start there.

[Ralph's Weather]

SHV NWS for some reason says past experiences with shallow cold makes them lead warm. Very odd statement. Everything about this air mass points to colder than modeled. If the wave is stronger tomorrow we could see a 10 or 15 degree bust.

[aggiecutter]

SHV NWS for some reason says past experiences with shallow cold makes them lead warm. Very odd statement. Everything about this air mass points to colder than modeled. If the wave is stronger tomorrow we could see a 10 or 15 degree bust.

Depending on the trajectory of the air mass, shallow arctic air often has trouble crossing the Quachita Mountains of south-central Arkansas southeast Oklahoma. This has an affect on temperatures in NE Texas, SW Arkansas, and Northern Louisiana.

[Ralph's Weather]

SHV NWS for some reason says past experiences with shallow cold makes them lead warm. Very odd statement. Everything about this air mass points to colder than modeled. If the wave is stronger tomorrow we could see a 10 or 15 degree bust.

Depending on the trajectory of the air mass, shallow arctic air often has trouble crossing the Quachita Mountains of south-central Arkansas southeast Oklahoma. This has an affect on temperatures in NE Texas, SW Arkansas, and Northern Louisiana.

True guess they are referring to areas east of here. A surface high over NE is not much of an issue for the Tyler area.