2019 WPAC Season

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euro6208
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#101 Postby euro6208 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:22 pm

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We can see our newly upgraded TD 03W south of Guam while another one is near the dateline that the models have been so reluctant on. Keeps it weak like the others.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#102 Postby euro6208 » Sat Mar 16, 2019 6:51 am

Just rolling along.

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#103 Postby euro6208 » Mon Mar 18, 2019 6:32 am

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#104 Postby euro6208 » Mon Mar 18, 2019 6:51 am

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Maybe this is the real deal this time?
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#105 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Mar 20, 2019 3:13 pm

Soon as the -VP200 anomalies fully concentrate over the WPAC, the models will start spawning some bad boys.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#106 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:10 am

Looks like models are now acting up.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#107 Postby euro6208 » Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:45 am

Yeah EURO is now in agreement with GFS on a potential storm around the first week of April.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#108 Postby euro6208 » Mon Mar 25, 2019 9:43 am

Models still hinting on a possible TC formation east of the Philippines or south of Guam. Keeps it weak though.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#109 Postby euro6208 » Tue Mar 26, 2019 7:22 pm

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During the next two weeks as the remnant MJO signal moves over the Pacific, tropical cyclone formation is possible over the Northwestern Pacific, east of Guam. There is moderate confidence for formation in this region during Week-1.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#110 Postby euro6208 » Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:32 am

Little change in forecast scenario for the three islands on this
side of Micronesia. Pohnpei remains within the northeast
convergence side of the trough to the south. Scattered showers can
be expected to last another 24 hours before the weather weakens
and pushes farther to the west. Kosrae also should be seeing less
periods of heavy rain by Friday. Recent satellite imagery shows
the near equatorial trough less concentrated and this is also
supported by today`s ASCAT scatterometer with little evidence of
an actual surface circulation. The GFS model has finally weakened
its development of any disturbance coming out of this and is now
closer to that of the ECMWF. There is still a chance of a couple
more spurts of energy coming out of this area and so its still
bares watching as the mid- to lower- tropospheric wind field
remains anchored in this location.


Following the above scenario for Eastern Micronesia, Chuuk
forecast remains relatively unchanged although timing of events
are bit more subjective. Even without a closed surface
circulation, models...both GFS and ECMWF...put some vorticity
(periods of scattered showers) over the region this weekend,
Friday through Sunday. Don`t expect much more than that.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#111 Postby euro6208 » Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:36 am

97W THREAD

Now an invest.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#112 Postby euro6208 » Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:53 am

Super typhoon a risk for Macau in 2019: weather bureau

Two super typhoons struck Macau in little more than a 12-month period recently, after a half-century of relatively milder storms.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#113 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Mar 30, 2019 6:40 am

https://www.hko.gov.hk/press/WP/2019/pre20190321.htm
On the annual weather outlook for Hong Kong in 2019, the tropical cyclone season may start in or after June this year. It is expected that there will be four to seven tropical cyclones coming within 500km of Hong Kong, which is normal. The annual rainfall is expected to be normal or above normal. Members of the public are reminded to take precautions in a timely manner.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#114 Postby euro6208 » Sun Mar 31, 2019 7:29 am

Image
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#115 Postby euro6208 » Tue Apr 02, 2019 9:19 am

WPAC spewing out invest after invest. When is the next real deal?
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#116 Postby euro6208 » Wed Apr 03, 2019 7:11 am

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TC development in this region is favored mostly by the GEFS and UK models whereas the ECMWF does not show significant development. Interested parties, especially those in Guam, are encouraged to consult local forecast offices and tropical cyclone forecast centers for the latest updates.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#117 Postby euro6208 » Wed Apr 03, 2019 7:13 am

Nothing on the latest GFS and EURO runs.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#118 Postby euro6208 » Wed Apr 03, 2019 7:13 am

Big mess down there.

Image
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#119 Postby euro6208 » Thu Apr 04, 2019 8:28 pm

Looks like GFS is trying to wake up the basin middle to long range.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#120 Postby euro6208 » Sun Apr 07, 2019 6:12 am

GFS drops all sorts of development...
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