Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#21 Postby wxman57 » Sun Mar 24, 2019 6:12 pm

That 127 ACE last season was mostly due to the long-tracked Florence, which had 37 ACE. Michael was only about 11. There were 6-7 subtropical storm which were named. The El Nino never developed last season, but conditions are much different in the Tropical Pacific this season. All signs point to below-normal activity. However, analog years suggest SE U.S. and East Coast impacts (and ACE 40-50 units). MDR looks rather hostile. Gulf is favorable if something forms in the West Caribbean. I'll be seeing Klotzback at the National Tropical Weather Conference on April 3rd, though we've been discussing the season for the past month. Over the past 30 seasons, the average has been 14 NS, 7 H, and 3 MH.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#22 Postby crownweather » Mon Mar 25, 2019 4:29 pm

SFLcane wrote:Per Crownweather I guess for us in Florida this season we can forget it’s even going on no concerns. I agree with this season being hampered by El Niño but making calls on who is gonna be impacted 4-5 months from meat of season is not a good look. It’s anyones guess


I have to disagree with you there. I think it's a topic (areas that may be at higher risk for impact this year) that can be predicted. Giving the user of your product just numbers (I'm going with 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes) & just saying all areas are at risk & it only takes 1 doesn't really say much. As we have all seen, a very quiet season in terms of numbers can yield some big impact storms. Alternatively, high number storm years have ended up being quiet impact wise.

So, in coming up with a potential impact threat forecast, which you can look at by visiting https://crownweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019forecast.png, I used a combination of analogs (went with 1953, 1961, 1969, 1976, 1984, 1990, 1997, 1999 and 2015) as well as looking at the UKMET, CFS, NMME, Euro and Canadian seasonal long range guidance. Based on that, there were a few things I noticed - first North Carolina was either threatened or impacted in almost all of those years; second - it seems like the central Gulf Coast is threatened or impacted during moderate to strong El Nino years and third - the analog data seemed to show a corridor of sorts from the Yucatan to the lower Texas coast where storms tracked.

Now, in my actual forecast (the text part), I didn't say Florida is "off the hook" - it never really is, especially south Florida. This is what I wrote -
South Carolina, Georgia, Florida & The Eastern & Northeastern US Gulf Coast: Even though the longer range model guidance seems to suggest otherwise, there are quite a few analog points that indicate the west coast of Florida may be at some threat this season. With that said, I’m not convinced its a significant threat as of yet.

All-in-all, my main areas of concern this season are for tropical systems forming outside of the deep tropics north of 20 North Latitude and also in the Gulf of Mexico with the 3 main areas of impact concern being coastal North Carolina, the lower Texas coast and the central US Gulf coast.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#23 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Mar 26, 2019 2:22 pm

I think yall are biting on El nino little to much :)
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#24 Postby GeneratorPower » Tue Mar 26, 2019 3:06 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:I think yall are biting on El nino little to much :)


The reality is that even in strong El Nino years, the threat of a high-impact hurricane event is always there. I'm not sure ENSO state is really that useful for determining actual hurricane threat level for any particular location. The skill of forecasting just isn't there.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#25 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Mar 26, 2019 4:34 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:I think yall are biting on El nino little to much :)


The reality is that even in strong El Nino years, the threat of a high-impact hurricane event is always there. I'm not sure ENSO state is really that useful for determining actual hurricane threat level for any particular location. The skill of forecasting just isn't there.


If foecasters know ENSO will be in El Nino mode for the Atlantic hurricane season, it at least eliminates the possibility of a 2005/2017 type year. ENSO state is extremely important as it is a big chunk of their forecasts.

La Nina you can comfortably call for an active season.
Cool Neutral/Neutral ENSO years have equated to some monster years.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#26 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Mar 27, 2019 6:46 am

Kingarabian wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:I think yall are biting on El nino little to much :)


The reality is that even in strong El Nino years, the threat of a high-impact hurricane event is always there. I'm not sure ENSO state is really that useful for determining actual hurricane threat level for any particular location. The skill of forecasting just isn't there.


If foecasters know ENSO will be in El Nino mode for the Atlantic hurricane season, it at least eliminates the possibility of a 2005/2017 type year. ENSO state is extremely important as it is a big chunk of their forecasts.

La Nina you can comfortably call for an active season.
Cool Neutral/Neutral ENSO years have equated to some monster years.

Well there was talk that if the SST profile in the Atlantic is favorable that it could allow for a near normal to slightly above normal season number-wise.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#27 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Mar 28, 2019 2:29 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:I think yall are biting on El nino little to much :)


The reality is that even in strong El Nino years, the threat of a high-impact hurricane event is always there. I'm not sure ENSO state is really that useful for determining actual hurricane threat level for any particular location. The skill of forecasting just isn't there.


If foecasters know ENSO will be in El Nino mode for the Atlantic hurricane season, it at least eliminates the possibility of a 2005/2017 type year. ENSO state is extremely important as it is a big chunk of their forecasts.

La Nina you can comfortably call for an active season.
Cool Neutral/Neutral ENSO years have equated to some monster years.



they thought we were going to get el nino last year
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#28 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Mar 28, 2019 2:31 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:
The reality is that even in strong El Nino years, the threat of a high-impact hurricane event is always there. I'm not sure ENSO state is really that useful for determining actual hurricane threat level for any particular location. The skill of forecasting just isn't there.


If foecasters know ENSO will be in El Nino mode for the Atlantic hurricane season, it at least eliminates the possibility of a 2005/2017 type year. ENSO state is extremely important as it is a big chunk of their forecasts.

La Nina you can comfortably call for an active season.
Cool Neutral/Neutral ENSO years have equated to some monster years.



they thought we were going to get el nino last year

We are currently in a weak El Niño.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#29 Postby wxman57 » Thu Mar 28, 2019 5:15 pm

Temps across the tropical Pacific are considerably warmer than they were last year at this time - both at the surface and sub-surface. El Nino looking very likely.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#30 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Mar 28, 2019 6:17 pm

We are currently in a weak El Niño.


Temps across the tropical Pacific are considerably warmer than they were last year at this time - both at the surface and sub-surface. El Nino looking very likely.


So do we have one or not?
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#31 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Mar 28, 2019 6:25 pm

AnnularCane wrote:We are currently in a weak El Niño.


Temps across the tropical Pacific are considerably warmer than they were last year at this time - both at the surface and sub-surface. El Nino looking very likely.


So do we have one or not?


We currently have one, and Wxman57 is talking about El Nino odds for this upcoming hurricane season.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#32 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Mar 29, 2019 8:02 am

AnnularCane wrote:We are currently in a weak El Niño.


Temps across the tropical Pacific are considerably warmer than they were last year at this time - both at the surface and sub-surface. El Nino looking very likely.


So do we have one or not?


Well El Niño for now, what we’re watching is there is an area of cooler subsurface anomalies beneath the downwelling kelvin wave in the WPAC depending on whether trades or not bring that up later on in the year is the mystery or whether the relaxed trades continue and that doesn’t surface until sometime in late fall or winter
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2019 ATL Season

#33 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 29, 2019 10:18 am

On April 4,Phil Klotzbach of CSU will release the outlook as well TSR on the 5th so stay tuned.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#34 Postby ouragans » Sun Mar 31, 2019 8:39 am

crownweather wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Per Crownweather I guess for us in Florida this season we can forget it’s even going on no concerns. I agree with this season being hampered by El Niño but making calls on who is gonna be impacted 4-5 months from meat of season is not a good look. It’s anyones guess


I have to disagree with you there. I think it's a topic (areas that may be at higher risk for impact this year) that can be predicted. Giving the user of your product just numbers (I'm going with 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes) & just saying all areas are at risk & it only takes 1 doesn't really say much. As we have all seen, a very quiet season in terms of numbers can yield some big impact storms. Alternatively, high number storm years have ended up being quiet impact wise.

So, in coming up with a potential impact threat forecast, which you can look at by visiting https://crownweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019forecast.png, I used a combination of analogs (went with 1953, 1961, 1969, 1976, 1984, 1990, 1997, 1999 and 2015) as well as looking at the UKMET, CFS, NMME, Euro and Canadian seasonal long range guidance. Based on that, there were a few things I noticed - first North Carolina was either threatened or impacted in almost all of those years; second - it seems like the central Gulf Coast is threatened or impacted during moderate to strong El Nino years and third - the analog data seemed to show a corridor of sorts from the Yucatan to the lower Texas coast where storms tracked.

Now, in my actual forecast (the text part), I didn't say Florida is "off the hook" - it never really is, especially south Florida. This is what I wrote -
South Carolina, Georgia, Florida & The Eastern & Northeastern US Gulf Coast: Even though the longer range model guidance seems to suggest otherwise, there are quite a few analog points that indicate the west coast of Florida may be at some threat this season. With that said, I’m not convinced its a significant threat as of yet.

All-in-all, my main areas of concern this season are for tropical systems forming outside of the deep tropics north of 20 North Latitude and also in the Gulf of Mexico with the 3 main areas of impact concern being coastal North Carolina, the lower Texas coast and the central US Gulf coast.


Rob why was there no long term prediction in November, like you did in 2018?
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#35 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:35 am

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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#36 Postby OiOya » Wed Apr 03, 2019 12:24 pm

This just popped up on my dash:
https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-ne ... t/70007852
Image
Edit: added image
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#37 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:04 pm

OiOya wrote:This just popped up on my dash:
https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-ne ... t/70007852
https://i.imgur.com/nBLjJbH.jpg
Edit: added image

The fact that they’re mentioning years like 1969 make me a little uneasy but if this year keeps the madoki look 1969 may be a good analog
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#38 Postby OuterBanker » Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:44 pm

Between accuweather and crownweather it looks like we are not off the hook this year.

https://crownweather.com/wp-content/upl ... recast.png

https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-ne ... t/70007852

It will be interesting to see what JB has to say about his risk areas.

CSU abd TSR will be out in next couple of days with their numbers, I'm looking at below average numbers.

But, we all know that it really isn't a numbers game.

The most important factor is who is most at risk.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#39 Postby NotSparta » Wed Apr 03, 2019 6:52 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
OiOya wrote:This just popped up on my dash:
https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-ne ... t/70007852
https://i.imgur.com/nBLjJbH.jpg
Edit: added image

The fact that they’re mentioning years like 1969 make me a little uneasy but if this year keeps the madoki look 1969 may be a good analog



Unless we go neutral this summer, everything will have to shift way west to create similar conditions
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#40 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Apr 04, 2019 10:06 am

April 4 update from CSU goes with 13/5/2


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