2018 TCRs

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galaxy401
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#61 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Mar 27, 2019 2:38 pm

Yeah the NHC details a bit on Miriam's time in the CPAC. They usually don't do that as they tend to end their summaries once it crosses into the CPAC. Although the CPAC data is still preliminary I believe.
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#62 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Mar 30, 2019 9:03 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Yeah the NHC details a bit on Miriam's time in the CPAC. They usually don't do that as they tend to end their summaries once it crosses into the CPAC. Although the CPAC data is still preliminary I believe.

All the data in that report is final, including the CPAC portion.
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#63 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Mar 31, 2019 12:10 pm

1900hurricane wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:Yeah the NHC details a bit on Miriam's time in the CPAC. They usually don't do that as they tend to end their summaries once it crosses into the CPAC. Although the CPAC data is still preliminary I believe.

All the data in that report is final, including the CPAC portion.


So does that mean that there won't be a report from the CPHC then since the data is in the NHC report? That's what I'm confused about.
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#64 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Mar 31, 2019 12:27 pm

galaxy401 wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:Yeah the NHC details a bit on Miriam's time in the CPAC. They usually don't do that as they tend to end their summaries once it crosses into the CPAC. Although the CPAC data is still preliminary I believe.

All the data in that report is final, including the CPAC portion.


So does that mean that there won't be a report from the CPHC then since the data is in the NHC report? That's what I'm confused about.

Correct. The NHC and CPHC worked on the report and finished it together. Note that authors from both agencies are listed on the first page of the report.
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#65 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Apr 02, 2019 2:51 pm

Ernesto, Lane (EPAC portion) and Willa are now up. Lane's CPAC portion will probably take quite a while.

Remaining reports:

Atlantic - Debby, Florence, Leslie, Michael
EPAC - Tara, Vicente
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#66 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Apr 03, 2019 11:53 am

Some more reports came out today: Debby in the Atlantic and Tara in the Pacific.

EPAC is nearly complete, just leaves Vicente. While for the Atlantic, the three most interesting hurricanes of the season are left.
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#67 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Apr 03, 2019 1:35 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Some more reports came out today: Debby in the Atlantic and Tara in the Pacific.

EPAC is nearly complete, just leaves Vicente. While for the Atlantic, the three most interesting hurricanes of the season are left.


We'd be at late February right now if not for the government shutdown.
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#68 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Apr 03, 2019 1:46 pm

Leslie is now out. Nothing we didn't already know (as expected).
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#69 Postby StruThiO » Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:03 am

Last edited by StruThiO on Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#70 Postby bamajammer4eva » Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:04 am

StruThiO wrote:Michael is out.


Dont see the report but found this!

 https://twitter.com/WJHG_TV/status/1119239244524990469


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Re: 2018 TCRs

#71 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:08 am

Well there we have it! The first Category 5 hurricane to make U.S. landfall since Andrew in 1992, and the third season in a row to feature at least one Cat. 5 hurricane.
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#72 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:08 am

bamajammer4eva wrote:
StruThiO wrote:Michael is out.


Dont see the report but found this!

https://twitter.com/WJHG_TV/status/1119239244524990469


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL142018_Michael.pdf
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Re: 2018 TCRs: Hurricane Michael report is up: (Category 5)

#73 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:31 am

No real surprise, but historic nonetheless.

One note is that the SFMR of 138 was actually 152, but was largely disregarded. If that is used at face value, an intensity of 150 kt would be justified, but given the shoaling and uncertainty, that was correctly ignored. Still, pretty much all other data supports cat 5.

I'd also have lowered the landfall pressure a bit more, probably to 916 or 917. That said, the sensor that had 922 with hurricane conditions was probably off a bit (that would support around 914) given the other sites.
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Re: 2018 TCRs: Hurricane Michael report is up: (Category 5)

#74 Postby TorSkk » Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:56 am

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Re: 2018 TCRs: Hurricane Michael report is up: (Category 5) Still Florence is left - All 25 EPAC reports are up

#75 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:03 am

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Re: 2018 TCRs: Hurricane Michael report is up: (Category 5) Still Florence is left - All 25 EPAC reports are up

#76 Postby Kazmit » Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:45 am

Wow, three cat 5 years in a row (4 in total) after a 9 year drought.
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Re: 2018 TCRs: Hurricane Michael report is up: (Category 5) Still Florence is left - All 25 EPAC reports are up

#77 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:03 pm

Well there you have it. It was indeed a cat 5 after some debate. That also makes it the 3rd consecutive M name to reach category 5 status.

That just leaves Florence which is probably taking longer due to its damage being more widespread compared to Michael.
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Re: 2018 TCRs: Hurricane Michael report is up: (Category 5) Still Florence is left - All 25 EPAC reports are up

#78 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Apr 19, 2019 1:32 pm

26 years between Andrew and Michael, 23 years between Andrew and Camille, and 34 years between Camille and the Labor Day Hurricane.
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Re: 2018 TCRs: Hurricane Michael report is up: (Category 5) Still Florence is left - All 25 EPAC reports are up

#79 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:12 pm

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Re: 2018 TCRs: Hurricane Michael report is up: (Category 5) Still Florence is left - All 25 EPAC reports are up

#80 Postby Chris90 » Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:09 pm

:uarrow:
That seems like disagreeing just to disagree. The report was pretty thorough in explaining the different analyses they did, and made a very strong case to support their upgrade to 140kts.
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