ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1110115230137417728

[cycloneye]

CPC Weekly update has Niño 3.4 going up from +1.0C last week to +1.1C this week.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Kingarabian]

Anyone know why the buoys are running much cooler than the subsurface analysis that the CPC uses? Different datasets? I know it's normal for their to be some differences, but I have never seen the two be different to this degree.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/IWZDrGh.png[url]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/U8znCHJ.png[url]

Paul Roundy with some sort of explanation in this tweet reply:

 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1110136665392193536




So I'm assuming that these subsurface charts that update slowly have access to different instruments. I've noticed the buoys have been very volatile and inconsistent in their presentation of the subsurface this past week. It's pretty odd to see them behave in such a manner.

[Kingarabian]

This is pretty crazy to me. If it wasn't for the MJO parked in the WPAC and currently resembling phases 6/7 (next week in phase 8), along with the subsurface graphics showing a huge downwelling Kelvin wave, the buoys subsurface graphic currently resemble a blend of 2005/2010. Would be great to get some sort of definite answers.

[Kingarabian]

Subsurface pool has been largely steady throughout March:


In the past 3 weeks we have seen raw westerly winds but they remain confined to 150/160 vs the dateline.

[Kingarabian]

PDO signature looking better defined as of late:

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1111688892166615040




Euro adjusted to show much more of a westerly component compared to its earlier graphics.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1111686567746326529

[NDG]

This week's update, Nino 1+2 cools down to -0.2C, Nino 3 down to +0.7C, Nino 3.4 down a notch to +1.0C, Nino 4 remains at +0.9C
The weak El Nino remains very central based.

[TheStormExpert]

This week's update, Nino 1+2 cools down to -0.2C, Nino 3 down to +0.7C, Nino 3.4 down a notch to +1.0C, Nino 4 remains at +0.9C
The weak El Nino remains very central based.

Could you say it’s Modoki at this point? What implications would this have towards the upcoming Atlantic season?

[NDG]

This week's update, Nino 1+2 cools down to -0.2C, Nino 3 down to +0.7C, Nino 3.4 down a notch to +1.0C, Nino 4 remains at +0.9C
The weak El Nino remains very central based.

Could you say it’s Modoki at this point? What implications would this have towards the upcoming Atlantic season?

Usually a Modoki El Nino means conditions not as bad for the Atlantic as an eastern based traditional El Nino. But there is still plenty of time for it to become more eastern based during the heart of the Atlantic Hurricane season. Time will tell, IMO.

[cycloneye]

Text of weekly CPC update that has Niño 3.4 down to +1.0C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Kingarabian]

Despite the PENTAD graphics showing a possibility for a strong El Nino, the TAO graphics continue to show it's not happening... I mean the buoys are showing what appears to be increased cool neural/La Nina possibilities with a decent cold pool progressing. So we may have to Super El Nino/Strong El Nino cancel pretty soon. This can change though and there is a possibility we get a big event. However, we need someone at NOAA to explain why there's such a huge difference between the buoys and the PENTAD graphics. And we also need the MJO to amplify while it's in phases 7/8.

The differences are clear as day:

[StruThiO]

[WeatherEmperor]

Looks like the newly updated BOM model goes near neutral for ENSO come Aug/Sept. This appears to be an outlier




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Kingarabian]

Of course the latest update from the subsurface continues to be very warm.

[NotSparta]

I'm seeing a lot of model variability pop up, looks like it's time to buckle up, we're getting into the heart of the predictability barrier

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Looks like the newly updated BOM model goes near neutral for ENSO come Aug/Sept. This appears to be an outlier

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190402/c2a1c3624045171d3f83bae94a7aa763.png


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

And yet probably the model I would lean closest to right now. The hovmoller above is a good lesson in how not to sustain an El Nino, much less intensify one.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the newly updated BOM model goes near neutral for ENSO come Aug/Sept. This appears to be an outlier

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190402/c2a1c3624045171d3f83bae94a7aa763.png


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

And yet probably the model I would lean closest to right now. The hovmoller above is a good lesson in how not to sustain an El Nino, much less intensify one.

If the PENTAD data is correct, Itll sustain an El nino no problem especially since we keep seeing westerlies just west of the dateline (continued promotion of downwelling). Definetly not a super El Nino though. But that hovmoller is based on the GFS which has been very erratic with the MJO.

[Kingarabian]

I'm seeing a lot of model variability pop up, looks like it's time to buckle up, we're getting into the heart of the predictability barrier

The CFS doesn't care about the SPB. It'll be erratic well through the start of hurricane season.