2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#61 Postby NotSparta » Sat Mar 09, 2019 9:07 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:

Where about in the North Atlantic? Tropics or Subtropics? Either way it would mean little to no difference likely in the outcome of things if you have a full blown El Niño like some are saying may come to fruition.

I think even in a moderate-strong El Niño, a warm MDR would likely make the difference between a well below average season and a slightly below average season. Look at 2015 for this. The MDR was fairly active that season including a major hurricane. As long as the WAM remains strong as it has been in recent years, I don't think we will be looking at historic inactivity this season even if we have a strong El Niño.


Yes. It made a massive difference that yr. Warmest ASO on record, yet the season wasn't far from near normal.

And, there was a reason 2018 ended up above average w/ a record EP season.

I am currently leaning towards another strong one given the multidecadal trend (since the 70s). However, I do believe the season may be stunted more than last season w/ 1. a weaker WAM (low certainty) and 2. a stronger El Niño
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#62 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 09, 2019 9:26 pm

NotSparta wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Where about in the North Atlantic? Tropics or Subtropics? Either way it would mean little to no difference likely in the outcome of things if you have a full blown El Niño like some are saying may come to fruition.

I think even in a moderate-strong El Niño, a warm MDR would likely make the difference between a well below average season and a slightly below average season. Look at 2015 for this. The MDR was fairly active that season including a major hurricane. As long as the WAM remains strong as it has been in recent years, I don't think we will be looking at historic inactivity this season even if we have a strong El Niño.


Yes. It made a massive difference that yr. Warmest ASO on record, yet the season wasn't far from near normal.

And, there was a reason 2018 ended up above average w/ a record EP season.

I am currently leaning towards another strong one given the multidecadal trend (since the 70s). However, I do believe the season may be stunted more than last season w/ 1. a weaker WAM (low certainty) and 2. a stronger El Niño


I lean to more Subtropical stuff than MDR systems.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#63 Postby chaser1 » Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:43 pm

cycloneye wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:I think even in a moderate-strong El Niño, a warm MDR would likely make the difference between a well below average season and a slightly below average season. Look at 2015 for this. The MDR was fairly active that season including a major hurricane. As long as the WAM remains strong as it has been in recent years, I don't think we will be looking at historic inactivity this season even if we have a strong El Niño.


Yes. It made a massive difference that yr. Warmest ASO on record, yet the season wasn't far from near normal.

And, there was a reason 2018 ended up above average w/ a record EP season.

I am currently leaning towards another strong one given the multidecadal trend (since the 70s). However, I do believe the season may be stunted more than last season w/ 1. a weaker WAM (low certainty) and 2. a stronger El Niño


I lean to more Subtropical stuff than MDR systems.


I'm tending to lean that way too for the moment. To be honest though, i'm not even understanding the significance of that graph posted above. "Robust Warming"?? We're talking about an approx. 1/2 - 1 degree increase in SST over a 4 month period starting in April? I must be missing something here because unless that chart represents some SST anomaly forecast, then this level of warming for any portion of the MDR OR Central Atlantic seems entirely normal for this time of year.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#64 Postby NotSparta » Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:26 pm

chaser1 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Yes. It made a massive difference that yr. Warmest ASO on record, yet the season wasn't far from near normal.

And, there was a reason 2018 ended up above average w/ a record EP season.

I am currently leaning towards another strong one given the multidecadal trend (since the 70s). However, I do believe the season may be stunted more than last season w/ 1. a weaker WAM (low certainty) and 2. a stronger El Niño


I lean to more Subtropical stuff than MDR systems.


I'm tending to lean that way too for the moment. To be honest though, i'm not even understanding the significance of that graph posted above. "Robust Warming"?? We're talking about an approx. 1/2 - 1 degree increase in SST over a 4 month period starting in April? I must be missing something here because unless that chart represents some SST anomaly forecast, then this level of warming for any portion of the MDR OR Central Atlantic seems entirely normal for this time of year.



FWIW, the "North Atlantic" there includes all of the Atlantic, including the subtropics.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#65 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:29 pm

Homegrown tropical activity looking most likely TC origin come June-August, maybe more land impacts YET AGAIN? This is what the reliable UKMET depicts for the first half of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1106940686811783168


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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#66 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:53 am

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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#67 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Apr 05, 2019 4:54 pm

Latest Euro seasonal shows the El Nino peaking in June/July and fading through ASO. Also shows a pronounced warm PDO ring. Pretty bad MSLP setup for Hawaii and the WPAC. Of course as it does every year, high pressures in the MDR and Atlantic.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#68 Postby NotSparta » Fri Apr 05, 2019 5:45 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Latest Euro seasonal shows the El Nino peaking in June/July and fading through ASO. Also shows a pronounced warm PDO ring. Pretty bad MSLP setup for Hawaii and the WPAC. Of course as it does every year, high pressures in the MDR and Atlantic.


Yeah, I've noticed that as well. ENSO sure looks weird right now. Interesting to see how forecasts look after the SPB passes
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#69 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Apr 05, 2019 9:01 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Latest Euro seasonal shows the El Nino peaking in June/July and fading through ASO. Also shows a pronounced warm PDO ring. Pretty bad MSLP setup for Hawaii and the WPAC. Of course as it does every year, high pressures in the MDR and Atlantic.

So all in all nothing new from the seasonal Euro MSLP outlooks, still continues to over-hype the Atlantic’s high pressure bias. The Euro hasn’t been its best this past year so I’ll discount it, for now.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#70 Postby NotSparta » Fri Apr 05, 2019 10:32 pm

CFS flipping NAO to negative - may see some trade deceleration soon if forecast pans out

Image
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#71 Postby NotSparta » Sun Apr 07, 2019 10:41 am

March 2019 PWAT anomalies over the Sahel were similar to March PWAT anomalies in yrs where WAM ended up very strong

Image

Image
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#72 Postby gatorcane » Sun Apr 07, 2019 2:49 pm

One thing I have noticed this late winter and spring so far which we have seen the last several winters (since 2015) is a semi-permanent “SE ridge.” This past November and December we lost this pattern for the most part but now it is back. This is the type of pattern that steered Irma into Florida and Florence into the Carolinas.

The question I ask is while we have seen a semi-permanent east coast trough for many years from 2009-2015, steering most systems away from the US, has the pattern flipped to more of a semi-permanent ridge feature?

Image
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#73 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Apr 07, 2019 4:43 pm

There’s an area of cooler anomalies in the ENSO subsurface under west of the date line that has to be watched, could lead to the decline of El Niño and possibly go neutral for the peak of the season so many could bust low unless there’s reinforcing kelvin waves
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#74 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Apr 07, 2019 5:04 pm

gatorcane wrote:One thing I have noticed this late winter and spring so far which we have seen the last several winters (since 2015) is a semi-permanent “SE ridge.” This past November and December we lost this pattern for the most part but now it is back. This is the type of pattern that steered Irma into Florida and Florence into the Carolinas.

The question I ask is while we have seen a semi-permanent east coast trough for many years from 2009-2015, steering most systems away from the US, has the pattern flipped to more of a semi-permanent ridge feature?

[im.cc/wT9sJwg0/gfs-z500-mslp-[/img]


Image

This is the graphic to watch to provide clues about the potential trof/ridge setup off the SE coast. Last year, I noticed the NAO remain positive for almost 6 consecutive months and as you said, may have played a role into Florence making it all the way to the Carolinas from such a high starting latitude....and also just sitting off the SE coast for days.

The NAO has been mostly positive for a few months but will be going negative shortly and shows hints of going positive again at the end of the forecast period. Lets watch this near the peak of the season for clues.



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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#75 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Apr 07, 2019 5:07 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:There’s an area of cooler anomalies in the ENSO subsurface under west of the date line that has to be watched, could lead to the decline of El Niño and possibly go neutral for the peak of the season so many could bust low unless there’s reinforcing kelvin waves


Image

While there are many factors, what you described could be what the POAMA Enso model is seeing and dropping Enso 3.4 to very near normal for the peak ASO time period. A near normal Enso could contribute to more atlantic activity.


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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#76 Postby SFLcane » Mon Apr 08, 2019 8:26 am

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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#77 Postby chaser1 » Mon Apr 08, 2019 2:10 pm

:uarrow: I have been pretty bent on leaning toward a pretty inactive Atlantic season; still am. I have to admit though, i'm a little befuddled by what appears to be a growing "cool patch" over the far eastern Pacific and off equatorial West Coast of S. America. That and, what appears to be shrinking layer in depth of Warm SST's over parts of the equatorial Pacific as well. Problem is guessing what Atlantic MDR and W. Atlantic conditions might be, especially in light of the typical time lag from existing El Nino conditions to their impact on Atlantic tropical development. Perhaps an early enough waning El Nino might just permit more optimum conditions for Atlantic cyclogenesis toward September and October?? Long term SST forecast seems to suggest the W. Atlantic remaining "coolish" (though surely warm enough assuming other variables were in place). Here we are finally making it into April but to me it seems like this year still feels a bit more tricky to predict. Perhaps there will be some additional definitive hints over the next few weeks one way or another.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#78 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Apr 08, 2019 3:02 pm

If another kelvin wave doesn’t form in the ENSO subsurface or is weak then I might have to increase my numbers in the hurricane and intense hurricane department
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#79 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Apr 08, 2019 3:22 pm

my weather buddy said El Nino will be done by august, he said people are over hyping it like they did all last year.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#80 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Apr 08, 2019 3:57 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:my weather buddy said El Nino will be done by august, he said people are over hyping it like they did all last year.

There still will be lagging effects regardless if the El Niño fades before peak season.
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