Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
HurricaneEnzo
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 61
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:18 pm

Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#1 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:24 am

So this decade we have seen tropical development in May 4 different years. So at the least that will be 40% of this decades seasons having May development. Maybe 50% depending on what happens this year. With oceans warming if the trend continues do you think we change the official 'season' start to May 1st or perhaps May 15th like the EPAC? I know this isn't really a big issue in the grand scheme of things just something to discuss while we gear up for the official start of the season!
1 likes   
I am not a Professional Met nor am I studying Meteorology. I am just a guy that enjoys learning about weather. Take everything I say with a grain of salt and get your weather forecasts from the Pros!

User avatar
bg1
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 402
Joined: Fri May 13, 2011 11:14 am
Location: near Santee, SC

Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#2 Postby bg1 » Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:22 pm

I was thinking the same, move the start to May 15 if this continues.
1 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 18686
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#3 Postby wxman57 » Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:54 pm

Changing the official start date of the hurricane season is meaningless - it will have no impact on when a storms form. We've seen at least one form in January, too. The Atlantic is not warming, it is cooling, by the way. We think that the cool cycle of the AMO began in 2013. The recent convention of naming subtropical storm is one reason why we are seeing earlier "development". Also, better detection (scatterometer, high-res satellite) allows us to more easily identify tropical or subtropical storms. Should any threat development outside of the official season, it is always fully-covered with daily outlooks and advisories. No reason to change the date of the start.
6 likes   

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1000
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Bermuda

Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#4 Postby Kazmit » Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:12 pm

If you think about it, the season really starts when the first storm forms! Hurricanes don't care about specific dates. :)
5 likes   
Florence 2006, Bertha 2008, Igor 2010, Gabrielle 2013, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Karl 2016, Nicole 2016

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 726
Age: 20
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#5 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:18 pm

wxman57 wrote:Changing the official start date of the hurricane season is meaningless - it will have no impact on when a storms form. We've seen at least one form in January, too. The Atlantic is not warming, it is cooling, by the way. We think that the cool cycle of the AMO began in 2013. The recent convention of naming subtropical storm is one reason why we are seeing earlier "development". Also, better detection (scatterometer, high-res satellite) allows us to more easily identify tropical or subtropical storms. Should any threat development outside of the official season, it is always fully-covered with daily outlooks and advisories. No reason to change the date of the start.

The subtropical Atlantic has been significantly warmer than normal for most of the last several years and that is where most of the preseason developments have occurred. Alberto was an exception last year but most of the other May storms we've had in the last 12 years have been in the subtropics. Andrea (2007), TD1 (2009), Alberto (2012), Beryl (2012), Ana (2015), Bonnie (2016) and Arlene (2017).
3 likes   
NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
GeneratorPower
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1339
Age: 39
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:48 pm
Location: Fort Myers, FL

Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#6 Postby GeneratorPower » Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:22 pm

The only reason for a "season" at all is to delineate the time period when storms are most likely to form, so that essential resources can be focused on a certain time period. The NHC can stop issuing Tropical Weather Outlooks and doesn't have to keep as many people on rotating shift work during the off season, presumably (I have no specific info on that). It also cues local and state government bodies of the time when they need to be most engaged, and also keeps the public aware during a specific season.

Changing the start to May 15th should be done only if the public and government resources truly need to be more engaged and ready for tropical cyclones from May 15 to June 1. Although some storms do form in late May, I would argue they aren't typically actionable storms that the public needs to care about nor resources expended on preparing for. Special TWOs can handle anything that does pop up.
3 likes   

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2914
Age: 58
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#7 Postby chaser1 » Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:56 am

GeneratorPower wrote:The only reason for a "season" at all is to delineate the time period when storms are most likely to form, so that essential resources can be focused on a certain time period. The NHC can stop issuing Tropical Weather Outlooks and doesn't have to keep as many people on rotating shift work during the off season, presumably (I have no specific info on that). It also cues local and state government bodies of the time when they need to be most engaged, and also keeps the public aware during a specific season.

Changing the start to May 15th should be done only if the public and government resources truly need to be more engaged and ready for tropical cyclones from May 15 to June 1. Although some storms do form in late May, I would argue they aren't typically actionable storms that the public needs to care about nor resources expended on preparing for. Special TWOs can handle anything that does pop up.


As stated above, basing the start of Hurricane Season on the merits of relative risk is not an altogether unreasonable perspective. So with that in mind, I suggest we change the official Hurricane Season to not begin until July 1st. Wait, maybe even back it up until July 15.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



User avatar
HurricaneEnzo
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 61
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:18 pm

Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#8 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Sat Apr 13, 2019 8:35 am

Good points everybody! Yes I realize storms can form anytime and changing the dates does not change how often they form and as I stated I know this isn't a big deal just wanted something to discuss. I don't really see how the Atlantic is cooling though at least in the regions hurricanes form. Maybe the extreme north Atlantic due to ice melt.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
0 likes   
I am not a Professional Met nor am I studying Meteorology. I am just a guy that enjoys learning about weather. Take everything I say with a grain of salt and get your weather forecasts from the Pros!

al78
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 12
Joined: Thu Nov 01, 2018 12:20 pm

Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#9 Postby al78 » Mon Apr 15, 2019 7:47 am

Changing the start of the season may not change when the storms form, but it may enhance public awareness and incite people to get prepared earlier, thus increasing resilience.
2 likes   

User avatar
Hurricanehink
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1897
Joined: Sun Nov 16, 2003 2:05 pm
Location: New Jersey

Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#10 Postby Hurricanehink » Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:50 am

chaser1 wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:The only reason for a "season" at all is to delineate the time period when storms are most likely to form, so that essential resources can be focused on a certain time period. The NHC can stop issuing Tropical Weather Outlooks and doesn't have to keep as many people on rotating shift work during the off season, presumably (I have no specific info on that). It also cues local and state government bodies of the time when they need to be most engaged, and also keeps the public aware during a specific season.

Changing the start to May 15th should be done only if the public and government resources truly need to be more engaged and ready for tropical cyclones from May 15 to June 1. Although some storms do form in late May, I would argue they aren't typically actionable storms that the public needs to care about nor resources expended on preparing for. Special TWOs can handle anything that does pop up.


As stated above, basing the start of Hurricane Season on the merits of relative risk is not an altogether unreasonable perspective. So with that in mind, I suggest we change the official Hurricane Season to not begin until July 1st. Wait, maybe even back it up until July 15.


July 15 is too late. That would exclude storms such as Audrey 57, Bertha 96, Allison 01, Dennis 05, Alex 10. I think June 1 is perfect for the Atlantic. There aren’t many May storms, the most notable recent examples being Beryl 12 and Alberto 18, but both were just TS’s. Until we start seeing threatening hurricanes on Memorial Day Weekend, I think the current season for both basins works just fine.
3 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6822
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#11 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:25 am

I doubt NHC will move up the start of the North Atlantic Hurricane season to May any time soon. As explained earlier by a poster above, I agree if we get a hurricane on Memorial weekend or close to that time, that could get NHC to maybe consider starting on May 15 down the road. The closest we had to being a hurricane on Memorial weekend was Tropical Storm Beryl here in Jax back in 2012. Beryl made landfall at 65 mph at Jax Beach. It did reach 70 mph briefly offshore hours before landfall. Of course, I still have the satellite picture of Beryl posted in my avatar on the forum.
1 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Summer Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2914
Age: 58
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#12 Postby chaser1 » Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:10 pm

Hurricanehink wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:The only reason for a "season" at all is to delineate the time period when storms are most likely to form, so that essential resources can be focused on a certain time period. The NHC can stop issuing Tropical Weather Outlooks and doesn't have to keep as many people on rotating shift work during the off season, presumably (I have no specific info on that). It also cues local and state government bodies of the time when they need to be most engaged, and also keeps the public aware during a specific season.

Changing the start to May 15th should be done only if the public and government resources truly need to be more engaged and ready for tropical cyclones from May 15 to June 1. Although some storms do form in late May, I would argue they aren't typically actionable storms that the public needs to care about nor resources expended on preparing for. Special TWOs can handle anything that does pop up.


As stated above, basing the start of Hurricane Season on the merits of relative risk is not an altogether unreasonable perspective. So with that in mind, I suggest we change the official Hurricane Season to not begin until July 1st. Wait, maybe even back it up until July 15.


July 15 is too late. That would exclude storms such as Audrey 57, Bertha 96, Allison 01, Dennis 05, Alex 10. I think June 1 is perfect for the Atlantic. There aren’t many May storms, the most notable recent examples being Beryl 12 and Alberto 18, but both were just TS’s. Until we start seeing threatening hurricanes on Memorial Day Weekend, I think the current season for both basins works just fine.


I understand where you're coming from with a proposed Season start date of July 15 seeming a bit late, but your example of those past 5 storms over the long span of 60 years simply makes my point that much more logical. As Generatorpower above suggested, all that you're really talking about is NHC needing to issue special TWO's for these few events out of that example 60+ year period. To be honest though, I'm playing "devil's advocate" here though. I would have easily argued against the naming of at least a few recent year early storms but if this represents an apparent upswing in early Atlantic activity, then isn't it logical to raise public awareness for the sake of even earlier preparedness? As Wxman57 stated above, the biggest change that has likely occurred over the past 10 or more years (with regard to naming of storms) can probably be attributed to better satellite, data sampling, and detection and some scientific or political change in attitude regarding the naming of subtropical systems as a whole. I agree with Wxman with regard to the more "old-school" definition of what a tropical cyclone actually is but I also understand our society's increasing demand for better/faster weather warnings where needed. We're obviously not at any point of calling blizzards, squall lines, or all meso-scale thunderstorm complexes - "subtropical cyclones" LOL but i'd say that the lines HAVE increasingly blurred over the years. So, if this blurring has resulted in broadening the definition of what a tropical (or sub-tropical) cyclone is and when they can form..... then yeah an argument WOULD suggest an earlier start of the Atlantic Season. That or, we can just go back to an earlier day when more clearly defined perimeters truly defined what a tropical cyclone really was.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3115
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#13 Postby psyclone » Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:23 pm

No. If anything I chop off the ends of the current season and tend to think of hurricane season as August-October.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6110
Age: 39
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#14 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:58 pm

I’d say move the hurricane season 15 days up to June 15th to November 15th
0 likes   

User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1518
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#15 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:05 pm

I say leave it the way it is.
5 likes   

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 726
Age: 20
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#16 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue May 21, 2019 12:08 am

Bumping since we have yet another May storm. That's 6 in this decade in May alone.
1 likes   
NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 874
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm

Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#17 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue May 21, 2019 12:17 am

60% of hurricane seasons the last decade have featured a pre-season storm (2009-2019). I'd say stretch it to start May 15th.
2 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5815
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#18 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue May 21, 2019 6:07 am

Nope, just like in the 1950’s history is repeating itself. I wonder if this is also an indicator of the active era coming to an end soon as it was the case in the 1960’s?
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2914
Age: 58
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#19 Postby chaser1 » Tue May 21, 2019 10:45 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:60% of hurricane seasons the last decade have featured a pre-season storm (2009-2019). I'd say stretch it to start May 15th.


I agree. Some people will continue to argue that an increase in named storms is entirely due to a changing climate. Others believe that an increase in named storms is nothing more then a policy change resulting in a faster trigger finger and broader definition of what a tropical storm (or sub-tropical storm) even is. I'd even toss in the argument that the present day policy itself lends to subjective or inconsistent tropical system upgrading (meaning perhaps having a quicker trigger finger to upgrade in W. Atlantic, then in E. Atlantic in spite of supporting evidence from satellite and/or ASCAT).

Regardless of "why" though, this dead horse hasn't only been beat by a broom, it's been beat by the entire Fuller Brush Company :lol: . I believe that once all the Saharan Dust Level has cleared and the turf-wars are finally over, the bottom-line consensus will remain; "More named storms are being named in May" (or earlier). I think that when that day does finally occur, the Atlantic Hurricane Season will likely be redefined by NHC to an earlier start date like May 1st or May 15th. Even if I'm wrong, it'll be a moot point though...... Following their recent year naming of Winter Storms, it's only a matter of time before the Weather Channel themselves begin naming Tropical Waves, Flare-up's, and Disturbances :ggreen:
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



Hurricane Mike
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:44 am

Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#20 Postby Hurricane Mike » Wed May 22, 2019 3:42 am

I think it's two things. First, the naming of Sub-Tropical Cyclones and second, more up to the minute satellite and data analysis then we had even 15-20 years ago.

If we never named Sub-Tropical storms, there is also a chance they would have not "turned tropical" and if they had, it would have been unnamed and after the fact. 20 years ago, Hurricane "Florence" last year would have likely been "Hurricane Chris" and Michael would have likely been "Helene" or "Isaac". No way we would have had as many storms named. Alberto, Debby, Ernesto, and Joyce all began as sub-tropical storms, and I'm skeptical if any would have been named even after turning tropical with the old naming procedures. Perhaps only Leslie and Oscar.

If so, we would have had the following in 2018:

Hurricane Alberto (Beryl)
Hurricane Beryl (Chris)
Hurricane Chris (Florence)
Tropical Storm Debby (Gordon)
Hurricane Ernesto (Helene)
Hurricane Florence (Isaac)
Tropical Storm Gordon (Kirk)
Hurricane Helene (Leslie)
Hurricane Isaac (Michael)
Tropical Storm Joyce (Nadine)
Hurricane Kirk (Oscar)

We would have had a season of 11 storms, 8 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes. Hurricanes Chris and Isaac would have been what Florence and Michael were. This could also explain why we used to have many "retired storms" that were earlier in the name lists. Instead of Allen, Alicia and Andrew, we end up with Matthew, Maria and Michael.

Also, for a season like 2016, I'm skeptical if any storm would have been named until Hurricane Earl in late July prior to the 2000s. Hurricane Alex was a sub-tropical system that became a hurricane in January. Even as recently as the 90s, this would likely have never attained a name. "Bonnie" was so poorly organized I'm skeptical if it would have gone beyond depression status back in the day. Same for Colin and Danielle. That would have made Hurricane Earl christened Hurricane "Alex". Hermine would have been Hurricane "Danielle", and Matthew, Nicole and Otto would have been "Ian, Julia and Karl."

I think much of all of this has to do with naming procedures and better analysis and tools for tracking.
3 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: 1900hurricane, HurricaneFan, supercane4867 and 15 guests