2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#41 Postby OuterBanker » Tue Apr 09, 2019 8:41 pm

cycloneye wrote:Great news about the next ECMWF upgrade.

https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1106215970916294656


They should have gone with Cray as did the European.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#42 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Apr 11, 2019 11:04 pm

Just for giggles:

The 18z GEFS actually has several TC developments in the Western Caribbean and Eastern Pacific in late April. I see a 995 mb and 999 mb low in the Caribbean, as well as several EPAC developments including one member as strong as 970 mb. This obviously won't happen and it's a known bias for the model, but I've never seen it show genesis in that region in the month of April before.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#43 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Apr 12, 2019 6:38 am

:uarrow: Wouldn’t surprise me one bit if the W. Caribbean is the first place we look for Andrea next month or June.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#44 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:26 pm

Is medium range.

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#45 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Apr 13, 2019 2:02 pm

:uarrow: No thanks, I’ll pass!
:na:
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#46 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Apr 13, 2019 7:52 pm

Image

Looks like the Euro has it too


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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#47 Postby Weather150 » Sun Apr 14, 2019 9:55 am

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Wouldn’t surprise me one bit if the W. Caribbean is the first place we look for Andrea next month or June.

Agree.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#48 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 17, 2019 10:06 am

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#49 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Apr 17, 2019 10:17 am

You beat me to it! :lol: Maybe Andrea could happen sooner than May?
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#50 Postby OuterBanker » Wed Apr 17, 2019 1:54 pm

Yep, I see it now. The blob around 29 N 60 W now.
OTS (NE movement) but interesting. I guess the sub-tropics is a place we're going to have to watch this year.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#51 Postby Kazmit » Mon Apr 29, 2019 9:47 pm

Extra long range but the 18z has a phantom storm in the Southern Caribbean. The MJO is forecast to be in the area at the time...

Image
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#52 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Apr 30, 2019 3:40 pm

GFS for the past couple of runs has been showing something form in the eastern EPAC or something on the other side close to CA. Time frame has been coming closer with each run and coincides with the arrival of the strong MJO pulse in the EPAC.

Image

I would post this in the EPAC thread but it could form on either side.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#53 Postby xironman » Wed May 08, 2019 7:35 am

FV3-GFS and CMC both seem to want to leave a low pressure from a font off the SE coast mid-month. These homegrown scenarios do occur at the time of year, Especially with a Nino.

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#54 Postby xironman » Wed May 08, 2019 2:08 pm

Euro,

Obviously extra-tropical, but that is the genesis of these kinds of storms.

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#55 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 08, 2019 2:32 pm

So far in 2019, the GFS has started with a bang, showing a bunch of phantom storms.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#56 Postby xironman » Wed May 08, 2019 6:35 pm

Kingarabian wrote:So far in 2019, the GFS has started with a bang, showing a bunch of phantom storms.


Yep, one of the only things I like about the FV3 is it follows in that tradition. The Euro and CMC have a slight signal of support. The happy hour FV3 does not develop the disturbed area, but keeps it around FL long enough to sink the place

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#57 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu May 09, 2019 6:50 am

Yes it’s that time of year again for the GFS bogus-canes! :lol:

Though the MJO will be entering phase 8 within the next two weeks so it may not be totally bogus. It has GEFS support so we shall see.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#58 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 09, 2019 7:27 am

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#59 Postby SconnieCane » Thu May 09, 2019 11:52 am

Yes, just what we need to wreck the season again for those of us who enjoy chasing land-based severe convective storms and their associated, *somewhat* more localized rotating features. :roll:
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#60 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu May 09, 2019 11:55 am

Joe B. on board for some Atlantic tropical mischief.

 https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1126528997989523462


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