2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[stormlover2013]

Won’t effect to much, still above average in my book

[DioBrando]

Won’t effect to much, still above average in my book

so, how many storms do you reckon for the atlantic then? how many majors?

[stormlover2013]

14-15, 3 major, think it will kind of similar as last year, everyone last year was waiting on El Niño and really never came into fruition, this year same thing I think El Niño is being over hyped for this hurricane season and models have struggled with it!!!

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1116324901776969729

[cycloneye]

Interesting to say the least.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1116320764372897792




 https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1116381501153792004

[NotSparta]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1116324901776969729

Also, this type of standing wave is detrimental to El Niños - think 2018 - but doesn't preclude one

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1116324901776969729

Also, this type of standing wave is detrimental to El Niños - think 2018 - but doesn't preclude one

From what I see, the problem with this type of standing wave is that it doesn't stop an El Nino or a progression towards an El Nino, it usually keeps the event weak/moderate or delays a developing El Nino, so this may open the door to another event in 2020. Pretty stubborn pattern.

[NotSparta]

Maybe a bump up of MDR SSTAs

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1118955956954652672

[NDG]

I blinked too long didn't even notice that the NAO had gone negative, back to the positive regime over the next few days.

[cycloneye]

ECMWF MSLP forecast for ASO is a copy and paste that has higher pressures everywhere in the Atlantic. Kingarabian ,you are sitting in a dense blue bomb zone.

[CyclonicFury]

ECMWF MSLP forecast for ASO is a copy and paste that has higher pressures everywhere in the Atlantic. Kingarabian ,you are sitting in a blue bomb zone.

https://i.imgur.com/wAVYfvS.png

Same old same old. It has shown the same thing for the past 5 years.

[stormlover2013]

Yep euro has struggled for a while with that forecast

[CyclonicFury]

As one would expect the ECMWF shows below normal precip in the Atlantic MDR and generally a -AMO SST signature with a near normal MDR and the warmest anomalies in the subtropics, but this forecast is likely largely dependent on the persistence of El Niño conditions. If El Niño dissipates which looks like a possibility now, this forecast will likely bust. Just a reminder the April ECMWF forecast for ASO in 2017 was nearly identical.

[weathaguyry]

ECMWF MSLP forecast for ASO is a copy and paste that has higher pressures everywhere in the Atlantic. Kingarabian ,you are sitting in a dense blue bomb zone.

https://i.imgur.com/wAVYfvS.png

Here's the same forecast for 2017, just for comparison

[Kingarabian]

ECMWF MSLP forecast for ASO is a copy and paste that has higher pressures everywhere in the Atlantic. Kingarabian ,you are sitting in a dense blue bomb zone.

https://i.imgur.com/wAVYfvS.png

Yeah unfortunately. If things remain the same, have to pray that the southwesterlies are present again.

[NDG]

ECMWF MSLP forecast for ASO is a copy and paste that has higher pressures everywhere in the Atlantic. Kingarabian ,you are sitting in a dense blue bomb zone.

https://i.imgur.com/wAVYfvS.png

Yeah unfortunately. If things remain the same, have to pray that the southwesterlies are present again.

Hawaiian Islands are in the new Hurricane Alley, seems like it during the past few years

[TheStormExpert]

Could this be another season where both the Atlantic and East Pacific are above normal in overall activity?

[NotSparta]

Could this be another season where both the Atlantic and East Pacific are above normal in overall activity?

Maybe, but probably only if the El Niño struggles

[Kingarabian]

ECMWF MSLP forecast for ASO is a copy and paste that has higher pressures everywhere in the Atlantic. Kingarabian ,you are sitting in a dense blue bomb zone.

https://i.imgur.com/wAVYfvS.png

Yeah unfortunately. If things remain the same, have to pray that the southwesterlies are present again.

Hawaiian Islands are in the new Hurricane Alley, seems like it during the past few years

Becoming the new norm...

[CyclonicFury]

Yeah unfortunately. If things remain the same, have to pray that the southwesterlies are present again.

Hawaiian Islands are in the new Hurricane Alley, seems like it during the past few years

Becoming the new norm...

We've had so many Hawaii threats in the past 5 years, but shear has come to the rescue for nearly all of them.