ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

I just feel some of these pros don’t want to be wrong because they have been calling for an El Niño even for the last couple of months.

It's a weird situation because we're not even supposed to be in an El Nino, and we shouldn't even be in consideration for a double dip El Nino so soon after the last one in 2014-2015.

[CyclonicFury]

I just feel some of these pros don’t want to be wrong because they have been calling for an El Niño even for the last couple of months.

It's a weird situation because we're not even supposed to be in an El Nino, and we shouldn't even be in consideration for a double dip El Nino so soon after the last one in 2014-2015.

Are we really "not supposed" to be in an El Niño? They typically recur every 2-7 years. The last true El Niño we had was the 2014-16 event. 2016-17 and 2017-18 were La Niña years, though 2017 approached Niño levels in spring before cooling.

[Ntxw]

We are still in an El Nino that began last Fall. ONI trimonthlies are still hovering 0.8C.

[Kingarabian]

I just feel some of these pros don’t want to be wrong because they have been calling for an El Niño even for the last couple of months.

It's a weird situation because we're not even supposed to be in an El Nino, and we shouldn't even be in consideration for a double dip El Nino so soon after the last one in 2014-2015.

Are we really "not supposed" to be in an El Niño? They typically recur every 2-7 years. The last true El Niño we had was the 2014-16 event. 2016-17 and 2017-18 were La Niña years, though 2017 approached Niño levels in spring before cooling.

Not if they're super El Nino's. Per ONI it looks like an El Nino happens after a super/strong El Nino 4 years after. We flirted with warm neutral in the first half of 2017, first half of 2018, and ended up having an El Nino for the latter portions of 2018. And not a double dip El Nino as the CFS and Euro are showing, especially so soon after the last one in 2014-2015.

[NotSparta]

It's a weird situation because we're not even supposed to be in an El Nino, and we shouldn't even be in consideration for a double dip El Nino so soon after the last one in 2014-2015.

Are we really "not supposed" to be in an El Niño? They typically recur every 2-7 years. The last true El Niño we had was the 2014-16 event. 2016-17 and 2017-18 were La Niña years, though 2017 approached Niño levels in spring before cooling.

Not if they're super El Nino's. Per ONI it looks like an El Nino happens after a super/strong El Nino 4 years after. We flirted with warm neutral in the first half of 2017, first half of 2018, and ended up having an El Nino for the latter portions of 2018. And not a double dip El Nino as the CFS and Euro are showing, especially so soon after the last one in 2014-2015.

At the same time, the same rule says we should have been in a La Niña/neutral last year

[Kingarabian]

Are we really "not supposed" to be in an El Niño? They typically recur every 2-7 years. The last true El Niño we had was the 2014-16 event. 2016-17 and 2017-18 were La Niña years, though 2017 approached Niño levels in spring before cooling.

Not if they're super El Nino's. Per ONI it looks like an El Nino happens after a super/strong El Nino 4 years after. We flirted with warm neutral in the first half of 2017, first half of 2018, and ended up having an El Nino for the latter portions of 2018. And not a double dip El Nino as the CFS and Euro are showing, especially so soon after the last one in 2014-2015.

At the same time, the same rule says we should have been in a La Niña/neutral last year

What's more puzzling is that we didn't see a strong La Nina after 2016. Just weak events.

[NotSparta]

Not if they're super El Nino's. Per ONI it looks like an El Nino happens after a super/strong El Nino 4 years after. We flirted with warm neutral in the first half of 2017, first half of 2018, and ended up having an El Nino for the latter portions of 2018. And not a double dip El Nino as the CFS and Euro are showing, especially so soon after the last one in 2014-2015.

At the same time, the same rule says we should have been in a La Niña/neutral last year

What's more puzzling is that we didn't see a strong La Nina after 2016. Just weak events.

I think that was mostly having to do w/ the PMM not diving to -ve values like it normally does

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update has Niño 3.4 going slightly up from +0.8C last week to +0.9C this week.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[stormlover2013]

Mark sudduth Hurricane update/el nino

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOjidlJPLac

[Kingarabian]

The CFS has been showing a monster WWB for about a week now... probably overdone in some areas but its beginning to verify over the WPAC.

[Kingarabian]

SOI will be positive for the next few days. Boy does it have major lag... Takes too long to indicate whether pressures have changed enough to promote westerlies or easterlies.

[Chris90]

SOI will be positive for the next few days. Boy does it have major lag... Takes too long to indicate whether pressures have changed enough to promote westerlies or easterlies.

Would you mind explaining the lag a bit if you can? I just started following and learning about ENSO this year. I've been following the SOI dailies and watching the trends with the 30 and 90 day averages, and I know the basics with regards to it being positive or negative, but I've never heard about lag with it.
When you say it takes too long to indicate whether pressures have changed enough to promote westerlies or westerlies, how long of a period should we be looking for to see what it is promoting? And is there a certain threshold we should hit positive/negative before it will flip between easterlies/westerlies?

Thanks in advance for any help you can provide!

[Kingarabian]

SOI will be positive for the next few days. Boy does it have major lag... Takes too long to indicate whether pressures have changed enough to promote westerlies or easterlies.

Would you mind explaining the lag a bit if you can? I just started following and learning about ENSO this year. I've been following the SOI dailies and watching the trends with the 30 and 90 day averages, and I know the basics with regards to it being positive or negative, but I've never heard about lag with it.
When you say it takes too long to indicate whether pressures have changed enough to promote westerlies or westerlies, how long of a period should we be looking for to see what it is promoting? And is there a certain threshold we should hit positive/negative before it will flip between easterlies/westerlies?

Thanks in advance for any help you can provide!

While a pretty large EWB was taking place, SOI values were negative when they should've been positive. Easterlies are usually dominant across the equatorial pacific when the pressures are lower in Darwin and higher in Tahiti (positive SOI), and vice versa in regards to westerlies. So right now we're going to see some positives in the range of +8 or higher while the winds shift and become predominately westerly. Yet down the line, we'll see the dailies tank while the westerlies relax. So the lag is that the 30 day SOI takes time to reflect real time events and can give false impression. Which is why experts like Dr. Ventrice don't use it... but the CPC and BOM swear by it. The 90 day average is pretty solid but takes a loong time to show changes in the atmosphere.

[Chris90]

While a pretty large EWB was taking place, SOI values were negative when they should've been positive. Easterlies are usually dominant across the equatorial pacific when the pressures are lower in Darwin and higher in Tahiti (positive SOI), and vice versa in regards to westerlies. So right now we're going to see some positives in the range of +8 or higher while the winds shift and become predominately westerly. Yet down the line, we'll see the dailies tank while the westerlies relax. So the lag is that the 30 day SOI takes time to reflect real time events and can give false impression. Which is why experts like Dr. Ventrice don't use it... but the CPC and BOM swear by it. The 90 day average is pretty solid but takes a loong time to show changes in the atmosphere.

Thanks so much for your response, it was very helpful. Now I see the correlation between the winds and the SOI and how it can lag behind.
Would the equatorial SOI be a better measure do you think? I've seen it mentioned a few times, but never as much as just the regular SOI. Just did some quick searching and found a link for some data, although it only shows monthly means, not dailies or 30/90 day averages like the regular SOI.
February mean was -1.4 though, and March was -1.2, hopefully April will update within the next few days.

[cycloneye]

Phil throws the hammer.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1123949714288906240

[SoupBone]

Phil throws the hammer.

Would this also correlate to increased Caribbean wind shear as well? If not, where would we look for that info? And as much as I like tracking, bring on the shear!

[Kingarabian]

Phil throws the hammer.

[url]https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1123949714288906240[url]

CFS now keeps the El Nino into January 2020:

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1123960253387890688

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1124009760230117376

[Kingarabian]

GFS shows a large WWB over the WPAC but not yet over the dateline(though its slowly getting there). Euro and CFS show a strong WWB reaching the dateline. Again it looks like the differences is due to MJO progression.

GFS has the MJO back in the null phase while the Euro and CFS show amplification in phase 8 (CPAC/EPAC).
GFS:


Euro:


CFS:


The Euro and CFS if their solutions are to verify will surely trigger a large scale downwelling Kelvin wave and greatly increase OHC. GFS's solution is 50/50 and would leave the door open to neutral ENSO, especially if another round of trades come through.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1124069228238315521