2019 WPAC Season

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euro6208
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#141 Postby euro6208 » Mon Apr 29, 2019 6:51 am

NWS in their latest reasoning starts to notice...

ASCAT winds show a near-equatorial trough remains south of Koror,
and a broad ill-defined circulation is near 3.5N137.5E. Converging
winds are causing areas of showers over the region, mainly between
2N and 7N, while a dry trade-wind flow continues at Yap in the near
term. Model solutions differ greatly. GFS indicates the circulation
could further develop over the region later this week, while other
models are not so aggressive. Current forecast indicates increasing
clouds and showers for Yap and Palau by Thursday or Friday and the
weekend, but later forecasts will be subject to change, both for
better or for worse.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#142 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Apr 29, 2019 7:10 am

Nothing on the Euro :cry:
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#143 Postby euro6208 » Mon Apr 29, 2019 8:30 pm

Once again GFS gets too excited in the first few runs...Then backs down.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#144 Postby euro6208 » Tue Apr 30, 2019 6:10 am

Up and down...Down and up...

Image
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#145 Postby euro6208 » Tue Apr 30, 2019 6:11 am

The forecast for Palau and Yap is low confidence, with the solutions
of the GFS and the ECMWF-HiRes differing. Both spin up a circulation
over the next couple of days from the near-equatorial trough. Then,
the GFS takes it west of Yap, lifting slowly northward. The
ECMWF-HiRes takes it southeast of Koror Palau and just spins it
there for several days. As with all circulations in the tropics,
exact placement is everything. For now went with something of an
amalgam between the two, and will see if they start to come into line
with each other. The GFS brings in substantially more shower activity
so be aware if real life starts to trend in that direction.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#146 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Apr 30, 2019 3:45 pm

GFS spinning up a couple of disturbances within the next 7 days. They don't look very pretty but we all know this basic doesn't need much for a system to take off:
Image
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#147 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 01, 2019 6:09 am

90W THREAD

Now an invest.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#148 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 01, 2019 6:20 am

Image

Over the course of the next week, TC formation continues to be possible tied to anomalous low-level westerlies near the equator within the active MJO envelope and any Kelvin waves that emerge from it. This results in moderate confidence of TC formation stretching from the Timor Sea through areas off the Kimberley Coast of Australia, in addition to the West Pacific between Palau and Guam (around 140W). ECMWF ensembles also hint at the potential for a tropical depression to form near Vanuatu very late in Week-1, but confidence is low at present. Things appear quiet elsewhere, and there are no substantial signals for TC development in Week-2 at present, although the MJO reaching the West Pacific would support a possible uptick in activity from the Philippines through Micronesia. Assuming the MJO reaches the Western Hemisphere by Mid-May, the intraseasonal signal would support the potential for an active start to the East Pacific hurricane season that begins on the 15th of May.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#149 Postby euro6208 » Thu May 02, 2019 7:12 am

Looks like the GFS is starting to sniff on some more activity. Let's wait for a few more runs. :lol:
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#150 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 03, 2019 7:06 pm

Image

Here comes another one. Development pretty near.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#151 Postby euro6208 » Sat May 04, 2019 1:43 am

Development nearer and stronger.

Image
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#152 Postby Hayabusa » Sat May 04, 2019 2:24 am

Euro nothing, GFS again forecasting like the early runs of 90W :roll:
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#153 Postby euro6208 » Sat May 04, 2019 5:14 am

Image
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#154 Postby euro6208 » Sat May 04, 2019 6:55 am

06Z GFS even more robust. Peaks *Sepat* at 944 mb and has development in 60 hours. Passes south of Guam in 4-5 days.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#155 Postby euro6208 » Sat May 04, 2019 6:58 am

NAVGEM has a similiar path as GFS, CMC further north in the CNMI near Saipan, and EURO shows some activity for the first time.

Image
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#156 Postby euro6208 » Sat May 04, 2019 7:04 am

Some strong signals from the GEPS and GEFS.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#157 Postby dexterlabio » Sat May 04, 2019 9:57 am

If I'm seeing things right, it looks like the models are hinting on the onset of the southwest monsoon sometime this month, which is quite early and I think is unexpected since El Nino episodes occurring at this time of year tend to delay the arrival of the southwest monsoon.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#158 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 04, 2019 6:15 pm

GFS, Navy, CMC, and ICON show a disturbance developing within the next 48 hours. Models vary on strength but the GFS make it a strong system.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#159 Postby euro6208 » Sat May 04, 2019 7:30 pm

91W Thread

Now an invest.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#160 Postby NotoSans » Mon May 06, 2019 12:57 pm

JMA has decided to base probability circles radii (size of the "cone") for all forecast times on ensemble spread. The following paper outlines their methodology:
http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-ce ... xt21-1.pdf
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