Area of disturbed weather offshore the Carolinas

[KatDaddy]

Pre-Season fun and games. A great reminder that the 2019 Hurricane Season is a month away. I will be hoping the NW GOM remains quiet this season but something is telling me we may have a tropical threat along the Upper TX Coast. Its just a feeling thus we shall see.

[Nimbus]

This area has some convection and at least temporary inflow, I wonder if it will make it to invest?
It will only have about 48 hours before Florida but once its reaches the gulf stream again perhaps it could become a named storm?

[northjaxpro]

It definitely is becoming more intriguing by the hour. Shear is still hindering the system, but it is still holding on tenaniously currently. We have seen quickly developing tropical cyclones in this region in the past of course. If convection continues to build the next 12-24 hours as the system nears the Gulf Stream, I'd say this stands a decent shot to potentially develop into a TD or even a named cyclone by Friday evening at the earliest.

Interesting pre-season feature for sure.

[TheStormExpert]

This disturbance is a complete disorganized mess, still serves as a good alert via the NHC TWO to remind those that hurricane season is just under a month away!

[StruThiO]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
950 AM EDT Thu May 2 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure that extends from South Florida
northeastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles
is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for
significant development of this system while it moves northwestward,
and then northward over the Florida peninsula and near the southeast
United States coast during the next day or so. This system is
forecast to merge with a frontal system later this weekend.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over
portions of the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula during the next
day or so. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued
by 10 AM EDT Friday, or sooner if conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1124087817313902594

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening everyone,

a little wind and rain, but a reminder that we are fast nearing Hurricane season.

[StruThiO]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
940 AM EDT Fri May 3 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A surface trough and broad area of low pressure over northeastern
Florida is producing a large area disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the far western Atlantic waters. Environmental
conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant
development of this system while it moves northeastward along the
southeast coast of the United States through Saturday. Later this
weekend, the system is expected to merge with a frontal system off
the east coast of the United States. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is possible over eastern portions of the
Florida peninsula and along the southeast United States coast during
the next day or so. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will
be issued by 10 AM EDT Saturday, or sooner if conditions warrant.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[StruThiO]

[TheStormExpert]

Impressive for something only given a 10% chance of development! Wonder if it has any surprises up it’s sleeve?

[CyclonicFury]

It does look better but most likely this will just be a rainmaker for areas along the Southeastern US coast. Don't see Andrea forming from it.

[Kingarabian]

It's possible that this system is directly or indirectly played a role for that 737 plane that just ended up in a rivier

[northjaxpro]

It's possible that this system is directly or indirectly for that 737 plane that just ended up in a rivier

It ended up in the Saint Johns River at the end of a runway at Jacksonville Naval Air Station. A military plane slid off the runway after landing during a heavy thunderstorm.

I happened to be monitoring that line of storms, which rapidly developed from 9:00 p.m. - 10 p.m. last night.

NTSB will be at Jax NAS investigating this incident this weekend.

My theory is that it is very possible that a sudden microbust, which was wind shear induced, of course, from a severe cell may have pushed that plane off the edge of that runway into the river. The runways and landing strips at Jax NAS lay west to east, right along the western bank of the river.

Thunderstorm downbursts are extremely dangerous, especially for aircraft. There have been numerous instances recorded and investigated in which these bursts have caused plane accidents and fatal plane crashes.

The most notable event was the terrible Pan American Boeing 727 crash in Kenner, Louisiana in 1982 , which killed all 138 passagers on board, and 7 people on the ground. It was a wind shear micro downburst, which essentially slammed that plane to the ground, which brought about this awful tragedy.

Fortunately, and thank God, the water along the Saint Johns River at the edge of the runway is shallow. The plane did not get into the deeper, murkier waters and avoided the extreme strong river current, or else we would be talking about an event similar to what happened in Kenner.

This is an absolute miracle from God that all 143 passengers on board survived this last night!!!