WPAC: INVEST 92W

All past storm threads will be archived here by year.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

WPAC: INVEST 92W

#1 Postby euro6208 » Sat May 04, 2019 7:30 pm

91W INVEST 190504 1800 3.0N 161.0E WPAC 15 0
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1070
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Sat May 04, 2019 7:52 pm

Image
0 likes   
寝取られとヤンデレ最高!

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Sat May 04, 2019 7:53 pm

A circulation could be found south of Kosrae this morning near2N163E.
GFS...NAVGEM and CMC develop it into a tropical cyclone and have it
passing near or over the Marianas around Saturday. ECMWF has it but
keeps it weak and show it staying near Chuuk for a while. The ECMWF
never has it going north of 10N. The ICON model keeps it a weak
circulation passing south of Guam next Sunday. Uncertainty is high
about anything eventually developing...but as always the system will
be watched.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2322
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#4 Postby mrbagyo » Sat May 04, 2019 7:55 pm

I hope this becomes a SW monsoon-enhancing Fish storm.
We need more rain in the Philippines.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

Tailspin

Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#5 Postby Tailspin » Sat May 04, 2019 9:03 pm

Typhoon may go close to or could directly affect one the Mariana Islands group thinks EPS.

Image

91W INVEST 190505 0000 3.0N 160.7E WPAC 15 1010
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11048
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#6 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 05, 2019 12:25 am

GFS develops this into a TD within the next 24 hours. 00z Euro up soon
0 likes   

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1070
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#7 Postby Hayabusa » Sun May 05, 2019 2:23 am

Nothing or too weak on Euro 00Z
ABPW10 PGTW 050600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/050600Z-060600ZMAY2019//
RMKS/
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
2.6N 162.1E, APPROXIMATELY 670 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT, SCATTERED CONVECTION. RECENT ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 91W BORDERING
AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS)
IN THE SURROUNDING WATERS SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
0 likes   
寝取られとヤンデレ最高!

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11048
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#8 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 05, 2019 2:52 am

00z Euro atleast acknowledged some sort of vort. I'll take a look at the EPS soon.
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Sun May 05, 2019 6:58 am

Image

Here GFS continues to perform poorly. Up and down up and down it goes... :roll:
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Sun May 05, 2019 4:48 pm

Both EURO and GFS stronger on approach to the Marianas.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

Tailspin

Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#11 Postby Tailspin » Sun May 05, 2019 5:51 pm

Image
https://imgur.com/U8kRKyq

91w may have potential for additional organization later this week as it slowly drifts to the east-northeast.


Image
Image

Image





WFO Guam's Tropical Cyclone Area of Responsibility https://www.weather.gov/gum/AOR



OTHER MODEL LOOPS FOR E. ASIA
ECMWF UKMET GFS CMC NAVY(NOGAPS)
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/JAPAVN_0z/avnloop.html
0 likes   

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1070
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

WPAC: INVEST 92W

#12 Postby Hayabusa » Mon May 06, 2019 1:45 am

Previously as 91W

92W INVEST 190506 0600 2.9N 162.0E WPAC 15 1008

ABPW10 PGTW 060600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/060600Z-070600ZMAY2019//
RMKS/
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W: REPLACES INVEST 91W,
WHICH WAS CLOSED DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
2.6N 162.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.9N 162.0E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
060435Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN ILL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICT FAVORABLE LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
BROAD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS) IN
THE SURROUNDING WATERS SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY WITH GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
0 likes   
寝取られとヤンデレ最高!

Tailspin

Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W: previously INVEST 91W

#13 Postby Tailspin » Mon May 06, 2019 2:27 am

Image

ABPW10 PGTW 060600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/060600Z-070600ZMAY2019//
RMKS/

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W: REPLACES INVEST 91W,
WHICH WAS CLOSED DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
2.6N 162.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.9N 162.0E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
060435Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN ILL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICT FAVORABLE LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
BROAD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS) IN
THE SURROUNDING WATERS SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY WITH GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11048
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#14 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 06, 2019 2:32 am

Euro still has nothing
0 likes   

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1070
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#15 Postby Hayabusa » Mon May 06, 2019 2:33 am

I suggest a mod to mix this thread with the 92W thread
and rename this 91W thread to 92W thread

or have 92W its own separate invest thread
0 likes   
寝取られとヤンデレ最高!

Tailspin

Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#16 Postby Tailspin » Mon May 06, 2019 5:21 am

Ens modelling

Image

https://imgur.com/yI8RkR9



Image

https://imgur.com/25OgJrc


Likely to slowly organise over the next few days, with a better chance for strengthening into a tropical storm later this week
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#17 Postby euro6208 » Mon May 06, 2019 6:25 am

92W is already being discussed in the former 91W thread...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1070
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#18 Postby Hayabusa » Mon May 06, 2019 6:33 am

euro6208 wrote:92W is already being discussed in the former 91W thread...


I just followed the "de facto" of making a new thread on "new" invests (even if they are just renumbered/same). So I hope a mod merge this thread to the "former"
0 likes   
寝取られとヤンデレ最高!

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#19 Postby euro6208 » Mon May 06, 2019 6:36 am

NWS likes the EURO on this one...

Invest 92W (renamed from 91W), is still large, weak and disorganized,
and though GFS shows steady development and NW movement the next few
days, there is no sign of that actually taking place yet. ECMWF keeps
92W very weak the rest of this week, and that is the favored solution
here at WFO Guam. For now, 92W is not expected to affect the Marianas
significantly.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117560
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#20 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 06, 2019 7:32 am

Merged boths threads.
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “Storm Archives”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests