ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

If the CANSIPS verifies, it would have ramifications towards the Atlantic hurricane season.

[stormlover2013]

Man they model jump all over these models just like hurricane season lol 3 weeks El Niño fizzling now oh man it’s coming back lol

[Kingarabian]

Man they model jump all over these models just like hurricane season lol 3 weeks El Niño fizzling now oh man it’s coming back lol

No one said its fizzling

[AutoPenalti]

Man they model jump all over these models just like hurricane season lol 3 weeks El Niño fizzling now oh man it’s coming back lol

Part of the spring barrier I’m guessing, now that we are getting closer I feel like we will get a better reading of ENSO conditions.

I think ENSO will be in full force come this hurricane season.

[Ntxw]

Have to remind everyone again despite the confusion that we are still in an El Nino. The question/debate has been does it strengthen, hold steady, or fade. FMA will be out soon and continue the >0.5C anomalies.

[TheStormExpert]

Man they model jump all over these models just like hurricane season lol 3 weeks El Niño fizzling now oh man it’s coming back lol

No one said its fizzling

I’m pretty sure just last week folks were saying it would dissipate by peak season.

[USTropics]

Man they model jump all over these models just like hurricane season lol 3 weeks El Niño fizzling now oh man it’s coming back lol

No one said its fizzling

I’m pretty sure just last week folks were saying it would dissipate by peak season.

There were some model runs that cast some uncertainty on the evolution of ENSO going into late summer. They also seem to indicate a short ramp up going into June. We're still in the spring predictability barrier, so wouldn't read too much into it.

[Kingarabian]

SPB or not, I believe we have a long way to go before models will be useful when it comes to ENSO. So I don't give them much thought and I only post them for informative purposes. Learned the hard way. I just stick to real time/near future observations that measure temperature beneath the surface and zonal wind activity.

It's funny that the models are so bad when it comes to ENSO because they generally do a pretty good job with the MJO and CCKW's along with sniffing out trade bursts and westerly wind bursts.

[Kingarabian]

Here's a nice twitter thread from Philippe Pappin that covers the latest events:

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1123756048769269760

[StruThiO]

FMA came in at 0.8C

[cycloneye]

Important Ventrice thread.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1124635066896875520




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1124636365344452615




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1124636724599115776




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1124638027681357824




 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1124686180598145024

[Ntxw]

FMA comes in at +0.8C again. El Nino continues, now in the 6th consecutive trimonthly. Really it has basically held steady since October.

[Kingarabian]

GFS has caved to the Euro and CFS in its MJO forecast on today's RMM plots.

[Kingarabian]

Strong raw westerlies over the equatorial WPAC making their way east.

 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1125017579876167680

[cycloneye]

No change from last week in the CPC update +0.9C

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Kingarabian]

OHC is on life support, down to about 0.3:


GFS now pretty much similar to the Euro in its MJO forecast and continues to expand its strong WWB, now reaching the dateline:


Looks like it will be similar to the February event with the way things are progressing. It's well defined to the point you can clearly see the event over the equatorial WPAC on satellite imagery.
(7mb gif loop): https://imgur.com/Z8QAVpK

[NotSparta]

OHC is on life support, down to about 0.3:
https://i.imgur.com/VM9MNWn.png

GFS now pretty much similar to the Euro in its MJO forecast and continues to expand its strong WWB, now reaching the dateline:
https://i.imgur.com/TbKoRe3.png

Looks like it will be similar to the February event with the way things are progressing. It's well defined to the point you can clearly see the event over the equatorial WPAC on satellite imagery.
(7mb gif loop): https://imgur.com/Z8QAVpK

Doesn't look like the February event to me. Still further west, reminds me of the March event (but a bit east). It is stronger than the last but not as much as February. In addition, if the forecast verifies, the duration will leave much to be desired.

[Kingarabian]

OHC is on life support, down to about 0.3:
https://i.imgur.com/VM9MNWn.png

GFS now pretty much similar to the Euro in its MJO forecast and continues to expand its strong WWB, now reaching the dateline:
https://i.imgur.com/TbKoRe3.png

Looks like it will be similar to the February event with the way things are progressing. It's well defined to the point you can clearly see the event over the equatorial WPAC on satellite imagery.
(7mb gif loop): https://imgur.com/Z8QAVpK

Doesn't look like the February event to me. Still further west, reminds me of the March event (but a bit east). It is stronger than the last but not as much as February. In addition, if the forecast verifies, the duration will leave much to be desired.

It's much stronger and coherent than what we saw in March. I don't even think what we saw in March counts as a true westerly burst. So far this event has similar Ms speeds near the dateline to the February WWB and with due time it likely to continue correct east. CFS has this WWB as strong or stronger than the February WWB

[Kingarabian]

Here is a GIF of the GFS adjusting its WWB forecast:

[NotSparta]

OHC is on life support, down to about 0.3:
https://i.imgur.com/VM9MNWn.png

GFS now pretty much similar to the Euro in its MJO forecast and continues to expand its strong WWB, now reaching the dateline:
https://i.imgur.com/TbKoRe3.png

Looks like it will be similar to the February event with the way things are progressing. It's well defined to the point you can clearly see the event over the equatorial WPAC on satellite imagery.
(7mb gif loop): https://imgur.com/Z8QAVpK

Doesn't look like the February event to me. Still further west, reminds me of the March event (but a bit east). It is stronger than the last but not as much as February. In addition, if the forecast verifies, the duration will leave much to be desired.

It's much stronger and coherent than what we saw in March. I don't even think what we saw in March counts as a true westerly burst. So far this event has similar Ms speeds near the dateline to the February WWB and with due time it likely to continue correct east. CFS has this WWB as strong or stronger than the February WWB

Yeah, for sure. The March WWB was anemic. This one does have those huge anomalies coming, but what made the February event was having more long-lived & larger areas. In addition, this WWB still is a bit too far west. It doesn't really get much past the dateline, while the February WWB was centered near it, & even got as far as 150°W.



It's no surprise that the CFS shows a stronger WWB - it's the strongest w/ the MJO - much more so than the Euro or GFS