2019 WPAC Season

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Imran_doomhaMwx
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#161 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri May 10, 2019 2:05 am

TSR has released their forecast for the 2019 Typhoon Season.
Above average TC activity (based on 1965-2018 climatology), mainly due to prevailing El Nino conditions. Uncertainties remain in the ENSO forecast for August-September 2019, however, and TSR's forecast skill for outlooks issued at this time of the year is low.
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#162 Postby Hayabusa » Fri May 10, 2019 3:19 am

Well their forecast from last year May called for above average 2018 and 2018 in actual was above average, and now 2019 also forecasting above average, before June last year WPAC had already 3 named storms, this 2019 only 2 named storms.
92W is really :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#163 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 10, 2019 7:30 am

Hayabusa wrote:Well their forecast from last year May called for above average 2018 and 2018 in actual was above average, and now 2019 also forecasting above average, before June last year WPAC had already 3 named storms, this 2019 only 2 named storms.
92W is really :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:


One difference though. At this time last year, the WPAC was only at 11.9 compared to this year's 35.2.

Still a long season and the WPAC can stay quiet until the middle of June and still be on par climatologically. That TSR forecast though. :eek:

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#164 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri May 10, 2019 10:18 am

The TSR forecast is almost a carbon copy of last year's activity, which was (using JTWC metrics) 348.8025 ACE, 9 intense typhoons, 16 typhoons, and 30 tropical storms.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#165 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 15, 2019 9:39 pm

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#166 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 15, 2019 10:16 pm

Getting to that time of year... :eek:

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#167 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 15, 2019 10:23 pm

GFS again sniffing some tropical troubles at a rather high latitude.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#168 Postby Hayabusa » Thu May 16, 2019 11:51 am

Scorching hot and loaded ohc :sun:

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#169 Postby euro6208 » Thu May 16, 2019 8:01 pm

Looks like the models specifically GFS are starting to show the Mei-yu front becoming active which can produce several tropical cyclones albeit mostly weak ones and is common for this time of year. Okinawa, Japan, Taiwan etc. should see some wild weather.

This regime can hinder significant tropical cyclone formations in the deep tropics but usually it breaks down in the last week of May to first week of June. So we'll see.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#170 Postby euro6208 » Sat May 18, 2019 6:10 am

A whole lot of Mei-yu systems. We be lucky to see TC development out of this just like last year.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#171 Postby euro6208 » Sat May 18, 2019 6:25 am

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#172 Postby NotSparta » Sat May 18, 2019 7:54 am



They say 1998, 1992, and 2016 were strong El Niño yrs. They came off strong El Niños, but 1992 was cool neutral, 1998 was strong La Niña, and 2016 was a weak La Niña.

Makes sense, given a lack of WWBs to spin up storms means less +ENSO conditions
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#173 Postby Hayabusa » Sat May 18, 2019 8:39 am

1992's Typhoon Gay - 160 knots
1998's Typhoon Zeb - 155 knots
2016's Typhoon Meranti - 170 knots
2018's Typhoon Yutu tied with Typhoon Mangkhut - 155 knots

All peak intensities is by JTWC.

Would 2019 produce a >=170 knots WPAC storm? Hmm.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#174 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 22, 2019 6:28 am

Models continue to keep the basin incredibly quiet. No doubt, the dry phrase of the MJO is partly to blame.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#175 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 24, 2019 5:33 am

Difference in just 9 days... :eek:

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#176 Postby Hayabusa » Mon May 27, 2019 3:26 am

OHC May 26th 2019
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OHC May 26th 2018 :double:
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OHC just before Maliksi from June 2018
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Notice that the OHC just before Maliksi was very high (and even higher when it was May 26th 2018) that I thought that if ever a TC formed and traversed that OHC path it would be a record breaker but despite the very high OHC in Maliksi's path and the rest of the environment was favorable, reality proved me wrong, Maliksi only peaked to STS. One possible explanation is there was another invest nearby in its vicinity at that time killing the potential and it was June. Not even the OHC during Mangkhut/Yutu comes close to the OHC of Maliksi, imagine if that was the OHC amount (or the OHC amount of 5/26/2018) during the months from September. The strongest June typhoon is Typhoon Kit (880 mb) but that was from 1966 while the strongest June typhoon that is reliable is Typhoon Dianmu (915 mb) from 2004.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#177 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 29, 2019 7:06 am

Models keep the basin very quiet which is good and bad news. Bad news in that it will only warm the ocean even more.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#178 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 29, 2019 7:08 am

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The convectively active phase of a robust Madden Julian Oscillation wave looks to return middle of June.
Last edited by euro6208 on Wed May 29, 2019 7:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#179 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 29, 2019 7:13 am

Yikes!

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#180 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 29, 2019 8:40 am

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