WPAC: INVEST 92W

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Tailspin

Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#21 Postby Tailspin » Mon May 06, 2019 6:44 pm

Image
https://imgur.com/sOsx6ss
Flaring up.




12z EPS still thinks there is potential for a typhoon.
Image
https://imgur.com/Mfnpuid



Image

Funky lpa's mirroring each other on each side of the equator.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#22 Postby euro6208 » Tue May 07, 2019 12:41 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 2.9N 162.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 161.2E, APPROXIMATELY 226
NM SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH INTERMITTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OVERHEAD, OBSCURED BY A LARGE CIRRUS SHIELD. A 062305Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH AN AREA OF 15
TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE WEST. 92W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MARGINAL (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
AND INTENSIFY TO WARNING STATUS WITHIN 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#23 Postby euro6208 » Tue May 07, 2019 2:12 am

Image

HWRF isn’t excited about this one.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#24 Postby Hayabusa » Tue May 07, 2019 2:24 am

JMA 00Z lists both invests 90W and 92W as a minor TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 08N 137E ALMOST STATIONARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 05N 162E ALMOST STATIONARY.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#25 Postby Hayabusa » Tue May 07, 2019 4:13 am

It's :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: that GFS is struggling with the forecast of 92W, even the past invests after Wutip, GFS has been really struggling in intensity, even last year too. FV3 too.
Well at least these invests made it to TD (albeit minor) intensity. I won't be surprised if this would only stay at TD.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#26 Postby euro6208 » Tue May 07, 2019 6:32 am

Image

:lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#27 Postby euro6208 » Tue May 07, 2019 6:35 am

Looks like another EURO win...

Invest 90W is still centered SW of Yap near 8N 136.5E, and has
changed little in the last 24 hrs. Models take it slowly west the
next few days with little development.

Invest 92W is still centered south of Kosrae near 3N 162E. This
morning it was looking better-organized with deep convection near
and north of the center, but since then the convection has fallen
apart, leaving lots of stratified cloudiness behind in the mid and
upper levels of the atmosphere. The latest run of the GFS has a
much weaker cyclone developing than previous runs and is slower,
bringing 92W past the Marianas on Sunday. ECMWF is also weak with
92W, and brings it near the Marianas around Tuesday. The ECMWF is
still the favored model for now, but the latest runs of ECMWF and
GFS are in better agreement overall than they were 12 hours ago.

We at the National Weather Service will continue to keep a close
watch on 92W, and issue any statements that may be warranted.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#28 Postby Tailspin » Tue May 07, 2019 8:17 pm

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https://imgur.com/RgVvsQ2

Likely to develop on approach to the Guam island group.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#29 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 08, 2019 6:27 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.5N 161.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.0N 162.4E, APPROXIMATELY 340
NM SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 080426Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED
TO THE NORTH. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRIONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE,
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DUE TO DIFFLUENT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (29-
31C) IN THIS REGIONS OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE
STRONGLY ON TRACK, WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
MARIANAS ISLANDS. FOR INTENSITY, MOST MODELS MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS
A BROAD LLC WITHOUT FORMING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#30 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 08, 2019 6:40 am

Props to EURO. GFS fail yet again...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#31 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 08, 2019 2:49 pm

Euro joining the GFS in showing a minimal TS coming out of this.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#32 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 08, 2019 6:56 pm

92W INVEST
As of 18:00 UTC May 08, 2019:

Location: 4.5°N 162.3°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb

Image
Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#33 Postby Tailspin » Wed May 08, 2019 11:28 pm

Still quite far out. Current euro has a strong upper trough capture and re- curve any system NE with no threat to land.

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https://imgur.com/05pKjLW
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#34 Postby euro6208 » Thu May 09, 2019 8:45 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.0N 162.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.3N 161.1E, APPROXIMATELY 180
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 090232Z AMSR2 89GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLC. A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN
ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH STRONGER WINDS TO THE NORTH AND WEAK WESTERLY
FLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS)
REMAIN FAVORABLE IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT MAINTAINING NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY WITH MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#35 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 10, 2019 6:56 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.3N 161.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 160.5E, APPROXIMATELY 150
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 100421Z SSMI 85GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A RECENT ASCAT
PASS REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH STRONGER WINDS TO THE
NORTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS FAVORABLE LOW (10-15 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH SUPPORTIVE OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS) REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#36 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 10, 2019 7:57 pm

GFS and EURO continues to show no development at all...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#37 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 10, 2019 7:59 pm

HWRF on the other hand.....makes this into a strong typhoon as it recurves east of the Marianas...

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#38 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 10, 2019 8:02 pm

UKMET is bullish too.

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.05.2019



TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92W ANALYSED POSITION : 6.3N 159.2E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 10.05.2019 6.3N 159.2E WEAK

00UTC 11.05.2019 7.5N 157.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 11.05.2019 7.9N 155.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 12.05.2019 8.7N 154.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 12.05.2019 10.0N 153.3E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 13.05.2019 11.1N 152.7E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 13.05.2019 12.4N 152.3E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 14.05.2019 13.5N 151.9E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 14.05.2019 14.7N 151.6E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 15.05.2019 15.7N 151.9E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 15.05.2019 17.1N 153.4E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 16.05.2019 19.1N 155.6E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 16.05.2019 20.9N 158.8E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#39 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 10, 2019 9:14 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.0N 160.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 158.3E, APPROXIMATELY 50
NM SOUTH OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A BROAD CIRCULATION BEING PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION
TO THE NORTH. A 102321Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS VERY LITTLE
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER, WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEPER
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE 92W
WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THE UKMET MODEL SHOWS SOME
INTENSIFICATION WHILE THE REMAINING MODELS SHOW MINIMAL OR NO
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#40 Postby euro6208 » Sat May 11, 2019 7:48 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.1N 158.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 158.5E, APPROXIMATELY 30
NM SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A LARGE MASS OF ROTATING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTH OF A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 102322Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WEAK,
ELONGATED LLC AROUND THE ISLAND OF POHNPEI WITH A LINE OF TROUGHING
EXTENDING NORTHEAST BELOW THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS BELOW A POINT SOURCE, ENABLING STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT WHILE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS INHIBITED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR IS IN THE MODERATE-HIGH
RANGE (15-25KTS) BUT DECREASES TO THE NORTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM (29-31C) IN THIS REGION OF THE EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK TOWARDS THE MARIANAS, WITH MOST BACKING OFF FROM PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES OF DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. THERE IS A GREATER DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATE TAU, AS THE UKMO SHOWS THE SYSTEM RECURVING
EARLY, PRIOR TO REACHING THE MARIANAS ISLANDS, AND THE GFS AND ECMWF
DISSIPATING 92W ENTIRELY AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
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