2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[TheStormExpert]

The last four cycles of the GEFS show development in the SW Caribbean around Tuesday May 21st.

[CyclonicFury]

12z EURO, CMC and ICON are going with EPAC development. 12z GFS is the outlier, going with Caribbean development. At this point, all we know is that there is a good chance for a Central American Gyre (CAG) to develop at some point in week 2. Genesis could be in the Caribbean, EPAC, or may not occur at all. Climatology would generally support EPAC genesis more so early, but Alberto last year proved that just because it's May doesn't mean the Atlantic has no chance of tropical development from these gyres.

[BYG Jacob]

Another early season Gyre?

[cycloneye]

Interesting.

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1127243742967214081

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro continues to favor the East Pacific, though the Euro hasn’t been its best in the 8-10 day range.

[gatorcane]

The GFS pre-season SW Caribbean storm seems to be an every May prediction by the model. My bet would be no development and if any development would be in the EPAC.

[TheDreamTraveler]

lol

[Kingarabian]

lol

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6UrWTkWsAAaRVn.jpg:large

How did NCEP manage to make the GFS worse

[MetroMike]

lol

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6UrWTkWsAAaRVn.jpg:large

That was yesterday’s evening run. Don’t try to confuse me.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1127988212960571392

[SoupBone]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1127988212960571392

Isn't the GFS kind of known for this every year?

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1127988212960571392

Potential track looks more like a classic track seen in late-October or November, not early-May or June!

[Kingarabian]

Both the Euro and GFS deterministic runs not showing anything materializing. Just a bunch of low pressure areas across the EPAC and a big mess over CA.

[TheStormExpert]

Both 18z runs of the new and old GFS have formidable hurricanes in the western Caribbean in the long range. I guess that model is unfixable!

[crownweather]

When I posted my own tropical weather, the item I've been mentioning since late last month is the possibility for western Caribbean tropical mischief last week of May or first week of June.

[TheStormExpert]

When I posted my own tropical weather, the item I've been mentioning since late last month is the possibility for western Caribbean tropical mischief last week of May or first week of June.

Yes, and Euro ensembles seem to be gradually sniffing that area in the SW Caribbean out. The CAG always gives the forecast models fits!

[crownweather]

When I posted my own tropical weather update this morning, the item I've been mentioning since late last month is the possibility for western Caribbean tropical mischief last week of May or first week of June.

Yes, and Euro ensembles seem to be gradually sniffing that area in the SW Caribbean out. The CAG always gives the forecast models fits!

Absolutely agree!! What tipped my hand with thinking tropical development is a viable possibility in the SW Caribbean are the 6-10 day and 8-14 day analogs. Many of the dates listed saw early season tropical development. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610analog.off.gif .

[TheStormExpert]

The 12z Euro now has an area of disturbed weather in association with the CAG 10 days from now on Memorial Day in the SW Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

GFS keeps doing the old early season tricks.

[ronjon]

Starting to pick up increasing global model support for a broad system developing in the western Caribbean in 7-10 days. GFS, FV3, CMC, and NAVGEM all showed development on their 5/22 00z runs.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2019052200&fh=192