ENSO Updates

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chaser1
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Re: ENSO: Mark Sudduth El Nino update

#10621 Postby chaser1 » Wed May 15, 2019 3:20 pm

I agree with Mark, to the extent that I don't necessarily believe that a "full-on" ENSO condition will have a clear cut typical impact to Atlantic development this season. On the other hand, I also was under the impression that this past Fall and Winter were also only "warm neutral" (and beneath ENSO threshold). The reason I bring that up is because I recall during much of that time period there was a split flow often in place. Even when the overall long wave pattern would have seemed to favor potentially damaging cold conditions well south and into Florida, much of the state was broadly protected by a low latitude mid level jet Until greater evidence suggest a more meridianal flow and a decreased and more relaxed mid to upper level flow across the breadth of the MDR, then I still have to believe that "El Nino like" conditions will at least impact broad areas of typically lower latitude development, and perhaps in relationship to this.... also result in some possibly weaker end tropical systems. At the same time, it's not unreasonable that a trend toward more ENSO neutral flow might well eventually cause a more favorable environment throughout the MDR but even here I would expect at least a several week delay for subsiding upper level Westerly flow to slowly evolve into a more favorable MDR pattern. I'm still leaning toward an underwhelming first 3 months of the season (relative to the normal underwhelming first 3 months of typical Atlantic seasons LOL), with cyclogenesis primarily occurring north of 25N. I'm not at all convinced yet that the second half of the season will look entirely different, other then the typically more frequent and potentially stronger storms that commonly form in Aug. and September. Given the current pattern though, it's anyone's guess what steering pattern will be in place then however. If you think about it though, isn't THAT what really should be the most important and pressing question about the upcoming season?? Because in the end, what really matters has more to do with those upper level conditions & what steering conditions are in place should we be dealing with the potential of higher latitude Westward moving developing tropical systems, perhaps east or north of the Bahamas sometime later in the season.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10622 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu May 16, 2019 12:57 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10623 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu May 16, 2019 1:12 pm

looking more like my weather buddy is going to be right!!!!!
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10624 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu May 16, 2019 1:46 pm

At this point I wouldn’t rule out cool-Neutral for the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10625 Postby NotSparta » Thu May 16, 2019 2:05 pm

Newer members clustered on warm neutral. Looks like the chances for El Niño continuing thru the yr are quickly dropping, but I wouldn't rule out a return near winter

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10626 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu May 16, 2019 2:17 pm

I bet we see hurricane forecast go up when the new one come out.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10627 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 16, 2019 3:03 pm

How I see it, the tug of war/seesaw effect is continuing.

With the MJO entering the EPAC and looks like it'll be spawning TC's along with a bunch of low pressure areas, it will likely mean that the trades will be running below average for the next 10 days. Pretty good chance that upwelling will cease for the next week or so over Nino 3 and the shallower Nino 1+2.

As for the current WWB over the dateline, there looks to be an oceanic response in the WPAC, although with weaker anomalies. Per the buoys, it looks like a downwelling Kelvin wave is slowly eroding the upwelling Kelvin wave west of the dateline. We'll see how long this lasts.

So all in all, and considering the ONI, weak El Nino conditions will remain until we see a couple more rounds of trades over the dateline, and no meaningful WWB's.

And also this needs to change:
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10628 Postby NotSparta » Thu May 16, 2019 4:51 pm

Kingarabian wrote:How I see it, the tug of war/seesaw effect is continuing.

With the MJO entering the EPAC and looks like it'll be spawning TC's along with a bunch of low pressure areas, it will likely mean that the trades will be running below average for the next 10 days. Pretty good chance that upwelling will cease for the next week or so over Nino 3 and the shallower Nino 1+2.

As for the current WWB over the dateline, there looks to be an oceanic response in the WPAC, although with weaker anomalies. Per the buoys, it looks like a downwelling Kelvin wave is slowly eroding the upwelling Kelvin wave west of the dateline. We'll see how long this lasts.

So all in all, and considering the ONI, weak El Nino conditions will remain until we see a couple more rounds of trades over the dateline, and no meaningful WWB's.

And also this needs to change:
https://i.imgur.com/AmEdyIp.png


Don't forget about the subsfc. Since the Niño isn't that strong, some of the cooler areas sfcing could boot us into warm neutral even w/o the atmospheric response
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10629 Postby NotSparta » Thu May 16, 2019 4:51 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10630 Postby StruThiO » Fri May 17, 2019 6:55 am

Yikes!!!

Image

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10631 Postby NotSparta » Fri May 17, 2019 7:12 am



Yeah, it's pretty likely El Niño ends, at least for a point. Just isn't enough heat anymore, and after this WWB, next round of Niño forcing doesn't look to arrive until June.


I think the February WWB made the Niño too strong, too early, rather than a month later like in 2015, so -ve feedbacks kicked in, which began the decay of El Niño
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10632 Postby SFLcane » Fri May 17, 2019 7:22 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10633 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri May 17, 2019 7:38 am

Despite these latest events, wouldnt the ONI remain above 0.5C? I thought that was the official El Nino determining statistic?


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Re: ENSO Updates

#10634 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 17, 2019 9:48 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:Despite these latest events, wouldnt the ONI remain above 0.5C? I thought that was the official El Nino determining statistic?


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Yup. Going to take more than this to kill the El Nino. The problem with using daily oscillations to determine the fate of ENSO can be problematic since there's too much noise. Because you need currently observed conditions to last around 2-3 months and then you also need the atmosphere to switch.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10635 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 17, 2019 9:51 am

NotSparta wrote:
StruThiO wrote:Yikes!!!

[url]https://i.imgur.com/B5fSLQF.png[url]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/aaQCrFk.png[url]


Yeah, it's pretty likely El Niño ends, at least for a point. Just isn't enough heat anymore, and after this WWB, next round of Niño forcing doesn't look to arrive until June.


I think the February WWB made the Niño too strong, too early, rather than a month later like in 2015, so -ve feedbacks kicked in, which began the decay of El Niño

We have the same problem again similar to March where the buoys and GODAS are showing different subsurface depictions.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10636 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri May 17, 2019 10:20 am

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
StruThiO wrote:Yikes!!!

[url]https://i.imgur.com/B5fSLQF.png[url]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/aaQCrFk.png[url]


Yeah, it's pretty likely El Niño ends, at least for a point. Just isn't enough heat anymore, and after this WWB, next round of Niño forcing doesn't look to arrive until June.


I think the February WWB made the Niño too strong, too early, rather than a month later like in 2015, so -ve feedbacks kicked in, which began the decay of El Niño

We have the same problem again similar to March where the buoys and GODAS are showing different subsurface depictions.

Neither subsurface data source looks impressive for an oncoming El Niño though. The CPC graphic now shows subsurface anomalies to be in the negatives, and the TRITON data isn't too much different.

While the ONI will likely remain in El Niño thresholds through at least AMJ, ONI is a 3-month average and does not best represent the current conditions. Unless we get a round of Niño forcing in June, it's likely we dip into warm neutral at least temporarily.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10637 Postby SFLcane » Fri May 17, 2019 11:54 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10638 Postby NotSparta » Fri May 17, 2019 12:18 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
StruThiO wrote:Yikes!!!

[url]https://i.imgur.com/B5fSLQF.png[url]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/aaQCrFk.png[url]


Yeah, it's pretty likely El Niño ends, at least for a point. Just isn't enough heat anymore, and after this WWB, next round of Niño forcing doesn't look to arrive until June.


I think the February WWB made the Niño too strong, too early, rather than a month later like in 2015, so -ve feedbacks kicked in, which began the decay of El Niño

We have the same problem again similar to March where the buoys and GODAS are showing different subsurface depictions.


Doesn't seem like that to me. In March they were multiple °C apart, but the current differences can be chalked up to resolution differences
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10639 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 17, 2019 12:48 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10640 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri May 17, 2019 1:55 pm


So this means El Niño is on life support
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