2019 WPAC Season
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- doomhaMwx
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
TSR has released their forecast for the 2019 Typhoon Season.
Above average TC activity (based on 1965-2018 climatology), mainly due to prevailing El Nino conditions. Uncertainties remain in the ENSO forecast for August-September 2019, however, and TSR's forecast skill for outlooks issued at this time of the year is low.
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
Above average TC activity (based on 1965-2018 climatology), mainly due to prevailing El Nino conditions. Uncertainties remain in the ENSO forecast for August-September 2019, however, and TSR's forecast skill for outlooks issued at this time of the year is low.
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
Last edited by doomhaMwx on Fri May 10, 2019 3:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Well their forecast from last year May called for above average 2018 and 2018 in actual was above average, and now 2019 also forecasting above average, before June last year WPAC had already 3 named storms, this 2019 only 2 named storms.
92W is really
92W is really
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Hayabusa wrote:Well their forecast from last year May called for above average 2018 and 2018 in actual was above average, and now 2019 also forecasting above average, before June last year WPAC had already 3 named storms, this 2019 only 2 named storms.
92W is really
One difference though. At this time last year, the WPAC was only at 11.9 compared to this year's 35.2.
Still a long season and the WPAC can stay quiet until the middle of June and still be on par climatologically. That TSR forecast though.
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- 1900hurricane
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
The TSR forecast is almost a carbon copy of last year's activity, which was (using JTWC metrics) 348.8025 ACE, 9 intense typhoons, 16 typhoons, and 30 tropical storms.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Getting to that time of year...
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
GFS again sniffing some tropical troubles at a rather high latitude.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Scorching hot and loaded ohc
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Looks like the models specifically GFS are starting to show the Mei-yu front becoming active which can produce several tropical cyclones albeit mostly weak ones and is common for this time of year. Okinawa, Japan, Taiwan etc. should see some wild weather.
This regime can hinder significant tropical cyclone formations in the deep tropics but usually it breaks down in the last week of May to first week of June. So we'll see.
This regime can hinder significant tropical cyclone formations in the deep tropics but usually it breaks down in the last week of May to first week of June. So we'll see.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
A whole lot of Mei-yu systems. We be lucky to see TC development out of this just like last year.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
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- NotSparta
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
euro6208 wrote:https://twitter.com/ptccfeed/status/1129654038352449536
They say 1998, 1992, and 2016 were strong El Niño yrs. They came off strong El Niños, but 1992 was cool neutral, 1998 was strong La Niña, and 2016 was a weak La Niña.
Makes sense, given a lack of WWBs to spin up storms means less +ENSO conditions
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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
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My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
1992's Typhoon Gay - 160 knots
1998's Typhoon Zeb - 155 knots
2016's Typhoon Meranti - 170 knots
2018's Typhoon Yutu tied with Typhoon Mangkhut - 155 knots
All peak intensities is by JTWC.
Would 2019 produce a >=170 knots WPAC storm? Hmm.
1998's Typhoon Zeb - 155 knots
2016's Typhoon Meranti - 170 knots
2018's Typhoon Yutu tied with Typhoon Mangkhut - 155 knots
All peak intensities is by JTWC.
Would 2019 produce a >=170 knots WPAC storm? Hmm.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Models continue to keep the basin incredibly quiet. No doubt, the dry phrase of the MJO is partly to blame.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Difference in just 9 days...
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
OHC May 26th 2019
OHC May 26th 2018
OHC just before Maliksi from June 2018
Notice that the OHC just before Maliksi was very high (and even higher when it was May 26th 2018) that I thought that if ever a TC formed and traversed that OHC path it would be a record breaker but despite the very high OHC in Maliksi's path and the rest of the environment was favorable, reality proved me wrong, Maliksi only peaked to STS. One possible explanation is there was another invest nearby in its vicinity at that time killing the potential and it was June. Not even the OHC during Mangkhut/Yutu comes close to the OHC of Maliksi, imagine if that was the OHC amount (or the OHC amount of 5/26/2018) during the months from September. The strongest June typhoon is Typhoon Kit (880 mb) but that was from 1966 while the strongest June typhoon that is reliable is Typhoon Dianmu (915 mb) from 2004.
OHC May 26th 2018
OHC just before Maliksi from June 2018
Notice that the OHC just before Maliksi was very high (and even higher when it was May 26th 2018) that I thought that if ever a TC formed and traversed that OHC path it would be a record breaker but despite the very high OHC in Maliksi's path and the rest of the environment was favorable, reality proved me wrong, Maliksi only peaked to STS. One possible explanation is there was another invest nearby in its vicinity at that time killing the potential and it was June. Not even the OHC during Mangkhut/Yutu comes close to the OHC of Maliksi, imagine if that was the OHC amount (or the OHC amount of 5/26/2018) during the months from September. The strongest June typhoon is Typhoon Kit (880 mb) but that was from 1966 while the strongest June typhoon that is reliable is Typhoon Dianmu (915 mb) from 2004.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Models keep the basin very quiet which is good and bad news. Bad news in that it will only warm the ocean even more.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
The convectively active phase of a robust Madden Julian Oscillation wave looks to return middle of June.
Last edited by euro6208 on Wed May 29, 2019 7:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Yikes!
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
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