ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

Not so sure I'd call that La Niña - but it's uncommonly far west for El Niño. It's looking more like Modoki Niño to me, and I mean the kind w/ a La Niña like EPAC.

Essentially, this is a La Niña pattern shifted west enough that the warm WPAC waters show up near and east of the dateline

Its continuing a pattern we've seen since last year September. These tweets create some sort of confusion, as the start of this current El Nino was during the fall while there was quite a bit of sinking motion over the WPAC (based on that Ventrice graphic).

Looks new to me - the standing wave was in a canonical position until January

Bunch of yellow situated over the WPAC if you look at that graphic dating to last fall. Thats when he was tweeting about his atmospheric index being in La Nina, around that period if you recall.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/carl_schreck/status/1130845173007519744




 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1130912338796797952

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Highly doubt El Niño will be a factor this year. Subsurface temps are not warm in the Epac. WWB failed to do much for El Niño. I think a lot of the preseason forecasts will bust badly. This year is similar to 2017- early on there is the prediction of an El Niño- but the season turns out hyperactive. I think we will be over active to hyperactive this year.

Note- I am a meteorology student but not a professional so please use the official National Hurricane Center forecasts for planning purposes.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1131211704430407680




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1131212246963634177




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1131212430841929728




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1131212915250327552

[SFLcane]

See ya El Nino....

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1131212430841929728

[NotSparta]

Will be time to bring out bones soon... the WWB did not do as much as we'd hoped, I don't see anything major helping El Niño until mid June

[CyclonicFury]

A transition to ENSO-neutral is looking more and more likely by fall. I'd guess the CPC lowers El Nino chances of persisting in their June update, unless something significantly changes.

ONI will likely remain above +0.5C through at least MJJ and possibly longer - but that's to be expected, since ONI is a three-month average and does not always reflect the current conditions.

[Kingarabian]

CFS has been showing the suppressed stage of the MJO hitting the Pacific for about a week now. Atmospherically, it disrupts the standing El Nino wave situated over the CPAC and then builds it back closer to the EPAC in mid-june. We'll see if the latter occurs.

Trade bursts west of the dateline are tricky, especially if we recall what happened in 2017. They don't always affect Nino's negatively compared to the trade bursts over the dateline/CPAC. Similar to how WWB's don't always induce warming when they're west of the dateline. That being said, it'll attempt to push the thermocline up beneath Nino 4 and force Nino 4 to cool. Will it cool to neutral levels? Who knows. +1C anoms comfortably extend to 100M in that region and there will likely be a WWB that will follow as soon as the MJO crosses back into the Pacific.

This continues the seesawing back and forth that we've been seeing lately.

[NotSparta]

CFS has been showing the suppressed stage of the MJO hitting the Pacific for about a week now. Atmospherically, it disrupts the standing El Nino wave situated over the CPAC and then builds it back closer to the EPAC in mid-june. We'll see if the latter occurs.

Trade bursts west of the dateline are tricky, especially if we recall what happened in 2017. They don't always affect Nino's negatively compared to the trade bursts over the dateline/CPAC. Similar to how WWB's don't always induce warming when they're west of the dateline. That being said, it'll attempt to push the thermocline up beneath Nino 4 and force Nino 4 to cool. Will it cool to neutral levels? Who knows. +1C anoms comfortably extend to 100M in that region and there will likely be a WWB that will follow as soon as the MJO crosses back into the Pacific.

This continues the seesawing back and forth that we've been seeing lately.

I'm not sure the entire EWB is west of the dateline, as it seems to be propagation from the Indian Ocean. But yeah looks less favorable for cooling than the last.

Also, if there is a following WWB, we better hope that it does more than the last two, as we've leaned on those for El Niño strengthening/continuing yet neither delivered

[Kingarabian]

CFS has been showing the suppressed stage of the MJO hitting the Pacific for about a week now. Atmospherically, it disrupts the standing El Nino wave situated over the CPAC and then builds it back closer to the EPAC in mid-june. We'll see if the latter occurs.

Trade bursts west of the dateline are tricky, especially if we recall what happened in 2017. They don't always affect Nino's negatively compared to the trade bursts over the dateline/CPAC. Similar to how WWB's don't always induce warming when they're west of the dateline. That being said, it'll attempt to push the thermocline up beneath Nino 4 and force Nino 4 to cool. Will it cool to neutral levels? Who knows. +1C anoms comfortably extend to 100M in that region and there will likely be a WWB that will follow as soon as the MJO crosses back into the Pacific.

This continues the seesawing back and forth that we've been seeing lately.

I'm not sure the entire EWB is west of the dateline, as it seems to be propagation from the Indian Ocean. But yeah looks less favorable for cooling than the last.

Also, if there is a following WWB, we better hope that it does more than the last two, as we've leaned on those for El Niño strengthening/continuing yet neither delivered

Last weeks 5 day average @ Nino 3.4 was above +0.5C, and so will this week, so regardless of fluctuations I think the last/current WWB has made a case for weak El Nino to continue into the summer. But I think it's pretty much it strength wise.

[NotSparta]

CFS has been showing the suppressed stage of the MJO hitting the Pacific for about a week now. Atmospherically, it disrupts the standing El Nino wave situated over the CPAC and then builds it back closer to the EPAC in mid-june. We'll see if the latter occurs.

Trade bursts west of the dateline are tricky, especially if we recall what happened in 2017. They don't always affect Nino's negatively compared to the trade bursts over the dateline/CPAC. Similar to how WWB's don't always induce warming when they're west of the dateline. That being said, it'll attempt to push the thermocline up beneath Nino 4 and force Nino 4 to cool. Will it cool to neutral levels? Who knows. +1C anoms comfortably extend to 100M in that region and there will likely be a WWB that will follow as soon as the MJO crosses back into the Pacific.

This continues the seesawing back and forth that we've been seeing lately.

I'm not sure the entire EWB is west of the dateline, as it seems to be propagation from the Indian Ocean. But yeah looks less favorable for cooling than the last.

Also, if there is a following WWB, we better hope that it does more than the last two, as we've leaned on those for El Niño strengthening/continuing yet neither delivered

Last weeks 5 day average @ Nino 3.4 was above +0.5C, and so will this week, so regardless of fluctuations I think the last/current WWB has made a case for weak El Nino to continue into the summer. But I think it's pretty much it strength wise.

Oh, I don't disagree w/ that. Will be close to borderline, I think

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1132293829271392257

[Kingarabian]

[url]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1132293829271392257[/rl]

Apparently we haven't been in an El Nino since March based on that graph

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1132299841873301505




 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1132301942515032064

[NotSparta]

[url]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1132293829271392257[/rl]

Apparently we haven't been in an El Nino since March based on that graph

Seems that when the graph started to head to neutral is about the same time as when everything started underperforming wrt El Niño strengthening thru the yr

[Kingarabian]

[url]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1132293829271392257[/rl]

Apparently we haven't been in an El Nino since March based on that graph

Seems that when the graph started to head to neutral is about the same time as when everything started underperforming wrt El Niño strengthening thru the yr

I'm not sure what data is used for this particular graph but it seems that it's just continuing the status-quo which is weak El Nino or possibly warm neutral.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1132750737740574723

[Monsoonjr99]

https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1132750737740574723

Seems the WWB did have an effect after all. Explains why NOAA expects the Nino to last through the summer.

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1132750737740574723

Seems the WWB did have an effect after all. Explains why NOAA expects the Nino to last through the summer.

Had a pretty significant effect IMO. Thermocline is now suppressed below Nino 3. Flipped widespread -1C/-1.5C anomalies to +1C/+1.5C and the upwelling Kelvin wave looks weakened considerably compared to the beginning of the month.

[NotSparta]

Looks like time is running out. While it has an effect & downwelling KW, it's been underwhelming, and there's not much going for +ENSO until mid June. It's already not doing so well and another 3 weeks w/o significant forcing sure isn't a good way to sustain an El Niño.