EPAC: INVEST 91E

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro will be interesting

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro has a better defined vort compared to the past couple of runs but nowhere as strong as GFS and ICON.

[TorSkk]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon May 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
Guatemala and El Salvador continues to produce limited shower
activity. Some gradual development of this system is possible later
this week while the disturbance meanders over the far eastern North
Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[TorSkk]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue May 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
Guatemala and El Salvador. Some gradual development of this system
is possible later this week while the disturbance meanders over the
far eastern North Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

[Kingarabian]

00z UKMET was bullish showing 969mb.

[NDG]

I think some of the energy in the Caribbean side of C.A. will aid in development of 91E. Perhaps the GFS was not that way off days ago

[plasticup]

00z ICON goes bonkers with this strongest run yet from this model.

https://i.imgur.com/QxAQwU2.gif

951 mb in May

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue May 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
Guatemala and El Salvador. Gradual development of this system
is possible later this week while the disturbance meanders over the
far eastern North Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro takes it inland before any real development occurs. I guess it comes down to how much time this thing has over waters.

[cycloneye]

The question about this system is when the invest comes back on ATCF/NRL it will stay as 91E or they jump to 92E.

[Kingarabian]

The question about this system is when the invest comes back on ATCF/NRL it will stay as 91E or they jump to 92E.

Yeah I wonder what's going on with ATCF.

[Kingarabian]

Fortunately, it looks like models are picking up on a steering change and looks like this system will interact with land more thus causing it to not strengthen to the extent as previously modeled.

[cycloneye]

It would be a very rainy scenario for CentralAmerica with the hazards it may bring for them.

[Kingarabian]

It would be a very rainy scenario for CentralAmerica with the hazards it may bring for them.

Possible catastrophic flooding in some areas if the 18z GFS verifies.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue May 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A weak area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south
of the coast of El Salvador continues to produce disorganized
shower activity. Gradual development of this system is possible
late this week and this weekend while the disturbance meanders over
the far eastern North Pacific. Regardless of development, this
system is likely to produce areas of heavy rain over portions of
Central America during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[NDG]

It would be a very rainy scenario for CentralAmerica with the hazards it may bring for them.

Possible catastrophic flooding in some areas if the 18z GFS verifies.

Kind of unusual during El Nino years for C.A. have such a wet period coming up.

[TorSkk]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue May 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A weak area of low pressure located just off the west coast of
Nicaragua is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This system is expected to continue to meander over the far eastern
North Pacific, and gradual development is possible through the
weekend if the disturbance remains offshore. Regardless of
development, this low is likely to produce areas of heavy rain
over portions of Central America during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

They left is as 91E.

As of 12:00 UTC May 22, 2019:

Location: 11.7°N 87.7°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/6kUi21D

Two storms develop from a monsoonal gyre thinks GFS.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed May 22 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system located very near the west coast of Nicaragua
is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is
expected to continue to meander near the coast of Central America
during the next few days, and gradual development is possible during
that time if the disturbance remains offshore. Even if development
does not occur, locally heavy rains are likely over portions of
Central America during the next few days. These rains could cause
flash flooding and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi