2019 EPAC season

[Nancy Smar]

546
ABPZ20 KNHC 151135
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed May 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Today marks the first day of the eastern North Pacific hurricane
season, which will run until November 30. Long-term averages for
the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are
15, 8, and 4, respectively.

[Astromanía]

[cycloneye]

First yellow of season.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed May 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large area of disturbed weather has persisted several hundred
miles to the south and southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec since
early this morning. Some gradual development will be possible
through the weekend and into early next week while the system moves
little or drifts slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

Things just got serious.

[Kingarabian]

https://i.imgur.com/DC4fYqa.png

Things just got serious.

Yup GFS bringing timeframe in sooner

[Kingarabian]

Invest 91E is up. Just like that, EPAC is back. Will be interesting to see how many invests areas are spawned with the passage of the MJO.

[cycloneye]

A very active 2019 season according to Accuweather.

 https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/1129014907024887808

[cycloneye]

Maybe the first longtracker of the season?

[Kingarabian]

Maybe the first longtracker of the season?

[url]https://i.imgur.com/UVebHpe.gif[url]

Euro showing something similar as well. GFS and Euro are hinting that conditions are conducive enough. Seems out of character considering we're still in May. Also there is a good possibility we see two more invest areas circled with how the models spitting out LLCs and I think we have a shot to see two systems form.

[cycloneye]

ECMWF is very bullish with another area not related to 91E.

[Kingarabian]

ECMWF is very bullish with another area not related to 91E.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/3dY6Bwc.gif[url]

Yeah GFS trying something similar as well:

[Kingarabian]

Past couple runs of the GFS shows the model remaining bullish on development in the EPAC as it spins up two TC's by this weekend. Euro is now less bullish on development, showing a weak system developing next week.

[cycloneye]

Is GFS dwindeling the timeframe at 18Z?

[Kingarabian]

Is GFS dwindeling the timeframe at 18Z?

https://i.imgur.com/Wd5Uks9.png

Yes. I believe that high end Cat.4 it's showing will be 91E. It spins up another system further west which should be 92E.

[cycloneye]

Is GFS dwindeling the timeframe at 18Z?

https://i.imgur.com/Wd5Uks9.png

Yes. I believe that high end Cat.4 it's showing will be 91E. It spins up another system further west which should be 92E.

Yes is 91E. Posted the TWO that is up in %.

[cycloneye]

Between 15-22 named storms is the prediction of NOAA for this basin.

 https://twitter.com/NOAAComms/status/1131580646269300737

[Kingarabian]

GFS trying to make sure we have Alvin before June:

[Kingarabian]

GFS continues to spin up Alvin in the next 72 hours. Its the only model to do so and if the Euro doesn't show it in the next run or so then the GFS is starting this season on a bad note.

[cycloneye]

A new area.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico is associated
with a trough of low pressure. Some gradual development of this
system is possible during the next several days as it moves slowly
northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Kingarabian]

GFS only model trying to spin it up but has backed off in the 12z run.