EPAC: INVEST 91E

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#41 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 23, 2019 3:05 am

Unlikely it develops in the EPAC based on the models.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#42 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 23, 2019 7:56 am

Alvin will have to wait.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu May 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms along portions of the west
coast of Central America and the far eastern North Pacific are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Earlier satellite wind
data indicated that the large circulation has moved inland over
Central America and the chance for development has decreased.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are likely to
continue over portions of Central America as this system remains
nearly stationary during the next few days. These rains could cause
flash flooding and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Latto/Brown
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#43 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu May 23, 2019 11:36 am

I'm getting flashbacks of Alma-Arthur in which there was a gyre present over Central America.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#44 Postby TorSkk » Thu May 23, 2019 1:56 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu May 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure over Central America have become less organized since
yesterday. Any development of this system during the next few
days should be slow to occur while the large circulation interacts
with land. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
likely to continue over portions of Central America as this system
remains nearly stationary through the weekend. These rains could
cause flash flooding and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Latto/Brown
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#45 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 23, 2019 11:04 pm

NHC should bump the odds back to at least 40/50. GFS back to showing development with 2 runs in a row showing 91E briefly become Alvin before going into CA.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#46 Postby Chris90 » Fri May 24, 2019 2:30 am

:uarrow: Some of these model runs make me think of Jurassic Park. If I remember correctly, the fictional Isla Nublar is supposed to be like 200-something miles off the pacific coast of Costa Rica.
Some of these model tracks for potential Alvin would be likely scenarios for the track the fictional storm in the movie took.

Hopefully this doesn't pan out though. I was hoping for another Aletta to start this season off. A major fish that is fun to track. I don't want to see a bunch of problems caused for Central America.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#47 Postby TorSkk » Fri May 24, 2019 7:54 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri May 24 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large area of disturbed weather is located over Central America
and the adjacent Pacific waters. Some gradual development of this
system is possible over the next few days while it meanders over the
far eastern Pacific. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
are likely to continue over portions of Central America through the
weekend. These rains could cause flash flooding and mudslides in
areas of mountainous terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Latto/Brown
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#48 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 24, 2019 11:17 am

You can see the circulation south of Nicaragua.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#49 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 24, 2019 12:30 pm

Up to 30%/40%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri May 24 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure located over the far eastern Pacific
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
gradual development of this system is possible while it moves little
during the next few days. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are likely to continue over portions of Central America
through the weekend. These rains could cause flash flooding and
mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brown
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#50 Postby TheAustinMan » Fri May 24, 2019 12:36 pm

Looks decent on satellite, though a scatterometer pass was not very suggestive of a tightly wound circulation at 1531 UTC today. Flagged data is suggestive of an elongated circulation extending from the coast of Costa Rica out towards the west-southwest.

990 kB. Source: FNMOC
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#51 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 24, 2019 5:05 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#52 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 25, 2019 6:43 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat May 25 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue along a trough of
low pressure that extends from Nicaragua westward over the far
eastern Pacific. This system is expected to move little during the
next few days, and some gradual development is possible while the
disturbance remains offshore. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rains are likely to continue over portions of Central America
into early next week. These rains could cause flash flooding
and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Latto/Brown
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#53 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat May 25, 2019 6:11 pm

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 252303
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat May 25 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure is producing disorganized
cloudiness and shower activity over the far eastern Pacific. This
broad disturbance has become poorly defined since yesterday, and
environmental conditions are expected to gradually become less
conducive for tropical cyclone formation over the next few days.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are likely to
continue over portions of Central America into early next week.
These rains could cause flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
mountainous terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#54 Postby NotSparta » Sat May 25, 2019 6:20 pm

91E's been meandering around for a while

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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#55 Postby TorSkk » Sun May 26, 2019 7:20 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun May 26 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large, elongated area of low pressure continues to produce
disorganized cloudiness and shower activity over the far eastern
Pacific. Any development of this system during the next several
days should be slow to occur due to its proximity to land and
increasing upper-level winds. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rains are likely to continue over portions of Central America
through this week while the system drifts to the northwest. These
rains could cause flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
mountainous terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#56 Postby Tedavionj987 » Sun May 26, 2019 7:42 am

Hey guys! I just joined storm2k and excited to discuss weather (specifically tropical). Though still weak it’s interesting that euro tries to briefly spin up 91E in the next 24 hours
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#57 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 26, 2019 7:47 am

Tedavionj987 wrote:Hey guys! I just joined storm2k and excited to discuss weather (specifically tropical). Though still weak it’s interesting that euro tries to briefly spin up 91E in the next 24 hours


Welcome to Storm2K.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#58 Postby TorSkk » Sun May 26, 2019 2:15 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun May 26 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An elongated area of low pressure located over the far eastern
Pacific continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and shower
activity over Central America and the adjacent Pacific waters.
Any development of this system during the next several days should
be slow to occur due to its proximity to land and increasing
upper-level winds. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
are likely to continue over portions of Central America through this
week while the system drifts northward. These rains could cause
flash flooding and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brown


No longer monitored on best track
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#59 Postby Tailspin » Mon May 27, 2019 2:48 am

Image

GFS 00z still thinks there is a possibility for a system.
Image
https://imgur.com/iHQF5Ks

Image
https://imgur.com/xibauS3

Atm it's a surface and mid-level vort not extending upto 500mb. GFS thinks it will extend however and form.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#60 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 27, 2019 6:33 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon May 27 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of Costa Rica,
Nicaragua, and the far eastern Pacific are associated with
an elongated area of low pressure. Significant development of this
system appears unlikely before it moves inland over Central America
by midweek. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
likely to continue over portions of Central America during the next
several days. These rains could cause flash flooding and mudslides
in areas of mountainous terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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