ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1133749838913392640

[Kingarabian]

GFS now takes the MJO into phase 2, similar to the Euro. Has a sizeable trade surge that extends to the dateline but keeps trades weak and relaxed over the EPAC for the forecast period:


CFS also takes the MJO into phase 2, similar to the Euro. Doesn't show much of an easterly component in its forecasts, keeps trades or westerlies blowing over the dateline, but has a strong trade burst over the EPAC:


So if the GFS solution materializes, a weak traditional El Nino will likely persist due to the trades blowing over an area that has sufficient warmth while weaker trades don't encourage much cooling over the EPAC.
If the CFS solution materializes the weak traditional El Nino signature over the Pacific ocean will surely disappear and a Modoki-esque signature will take over.

[NotSparta]

GFS now takes the MJO into phase 2, similar to the Euro. Has a sizeable trade surge that extends to the dateline but keeps trades weak and relaxed over the EPAC for the forecast period:
https://i.imgur.com/FniTWBW.png

CFS also takes the MJO into phase 2, similar to the Euro. Doesn't show much of an easterly component in its forecasts, keeps trades or westerlies blowing over the dateline, but has a strong trade burst over the EPAC:
https://i.imgur.com/UplNhlo.png

So if the GFS solution materializes, a weak traditional El Nino will likely persist due to the trades blowing over an area that has sufficient warmth while weaker trades don't encourage much cooling over the EPAC.
If the CFS solution materializes the weak traditional El Nino signature over the Pacific ocean will surely disappear and a Modoki-esque signature will take over.

I think the GFS solution is more damaging to El Niño. A dateline EWB is something you see in cool ENSO, and would excite another upwelling KW (possibly). The near normal trades further east would keep the area from being too cool but the KW lurking below would still keep SSTs down.

I agree w/ your second point, the EPAC would get quite cold but would be more favorable for warm ENSO in the long run

[Kingarabian]

GFS now takes the MJO into phase 2, similar to the Euro. Has a sizeable trade surge that extends to the dateline but keeps trades weak and relaxed over the EPAC for the forecast period:
https://i.imgur.com/FniTWBW.png

CFS also takes the MJO into phase 2, similar to the Euro. Doesn't show much of an easterly component in its forecasts, keeps trades or westerlies blowing over the dateline, but has a strong trade burst over the EPAC:
https://i.imgur.com/UplNhlo.png

So if the GFS solution materializes, a weak traditional El Nino will likely persist due to the trades blowing over an area that has sufficient warmth while weaker trades don't encourage much cooling over the EPAC.
If the CFS solution materializes the weak traditional El Nino signature over the Pacific ocean will surely disappear and a Modoki-esque signature will take over.

I think the GFS solution is more damaging to El Niño. A dateline EWB is something you see in cool ENSO, and would excite another upwelling KW (possibly). The near normal trades further east would keep the area from being too cool but the KW lurking below would still keep SSTs down.

I agree w/ your second point, the EPAC would get quite cold but would be more favorable for warm ENSO in the long run

One of the reasons why I don't think the GFS solution will be as damaging is due to the deep warm +1C/+1.5C anomalies beneath Nino 4 and Nino 3.4. Also both 2016 and 2017 had similar trade burst setups only for cooling to be very slow to occur.
If it gets to the CPAC with stronger easterlies than currently forecast it would be quite damaging.

[NotSparta]

GFS now takes the MJO into phase 2, similar to the Euro. Has a sizeable trade surge that extends to the dateline but keeps trades weak and relaxed over the EPAC for the forecast period:
https://i.imgur.com/FniTWBW.png

CFS also takes the MJO into phase 2, similar to the Euro. Doesn't show much of an easterly component in its forecasts, keeps trades or westerlies blowing over the dateline, but has a strong trade burst over the EPAC:
https://i.imgur.com/UplNhlo.png

So if the GFS solution materializes, a weak traditional El Nino will likely persist due to the trades blowing over an area that has sufficient warmth while weaker trades don't encourage much cooling over the EPAC.
If the CFS solution materializes the weak traditional El Nino signature over the Pacific ocean will surely disappear and a Modoki-esque signature will take over.

I think the GFS solution is more damaging to El Niño. A dateline EWB is something you see in cool ENSO, and would excite another upwelling KW (possibly). The near normal trades further east would keep the area from being too cool but the KW lurking below would still keep SSTs down.

I agree w/ your second point, the EPAC would get quite cold but would be more favorable for warm ENSO in the long run

One of the reasons why I don't think the GFS solution will be as damaging is due to the deep warm +1C/+1.5C anomalies beneath Nino 4 and Nino 3.4. Also both 2016 and 2017 had similar trade burst setups only for cooling to be very slow to occur.
If it gets to the CPAC with stronger easterlies than currently forecast it would be quite damaging.

True, might be moreso if it were shifted east. But the easterlies over the warm anomalies would help pretty much erase them, so then there would be absolutely no fuel left

[Kingarabian]

I think the GFS solution is more damaging to El Niño. A dateline EWB is something you see in cool ENSO, and would excite another upwelling KW (possibly). The near normal trades further east would keep the area from being too cool but the KW lurking below would still keep SSTs down.

I agree w/ your second point, the EPAC would get quite cold but would be more favorable for warm ENSO in the long run

One of the reasons why I don't think the GFS solution will be as damaging is due to the deep warm +1C/+1.5C anomalies beneath Nino 4 and Nino 3.4. Also both 2016 and 2017 had similar trade burst setups only for cooling to be very slow to occur.
If it gets to the CPAC with stronger easterlies than currently forecast it would be quite damaging.

True, might be moreso if it were shifted east. But the easterlies over the warm anomalies would help pretty much erase them, so then there would be absolutely no fuel left

It's very possible the thermocline rises in that region and we see those warm anomalies disappear, but if we're continuing the same MJO setup since late April and through most of May, another WWB will be in the works and also will likely rewarm the Nino regions. To break this pattern we need the MJO to amplify over the MC and trigger another trade burst vs. having the MJO end up back over the Pacific ocean.

[NotSparta]

One of the reasons why I don't think the GFS solution will be as damaging is due to the deep warm +1C/+1.5C anomalies beneath Nino 4 and Nino 3.4. Also both 2016 and 2017 had similar trade burst setups only for cooling to be very slow to occur.
If it gets to the CPAC with stronger easterlies than currently forecast it would be quite damaging.

True, might be moreso if it were shifted east. But the easterlies over the warm anomalies would help pretty much erase them, so then there would be absolutely no fuel left

It's very possible the thermocline rises in that region and we see those warm anomalies disappear, but if we're continuing the same MJO setup since late April and through most of May, another WWB will be in the works and also will likely rewarm the Nino regions. To break this pattern we need the MJO to amplify over the MC and trigger another trade burst vs. having the MJO end up back over the Pacific ocean.

It would be consistent w/ the recent pattern. Despite the WWBs the upper ocean anomalies have fallen 1.5°C. The EWBs have had a bigger effect lately.

Anyway, that's exactly what the GFS does. It has rising air setting up over the MC region w/ dateline sinking. That's a -ENSO pattern, which is why the GFS shows a trade burst. Also, it's proof that this event is weakening. This MJO pulse was strong, which helped it, but still, the standing wave was steamrolled unusually easily, & this upcoming -ENSO pattern which the GFS predicts starts the EWB is unusually sticky unless it suddenly changes after the fcst period

[Kingarabian]

True, might be moreso if it were shifted east. But the easterlies over the warm anomalies would help pretty much erase them, so then there would be absolutely no fuel left

It's very possible the thermocline rises in that region and we see those warm anomalies disappear, but if we're continuing the same MJO setup since late April and through most of May, another WWB will be in the works and also will likely rewarm the Nino regions. To break this pattern we need the MJO to amplify over the MC and trigger another trade burst vs. having the MJO end up back over the Pacific ocean.

It would be consistent w/ the recent pattern. Despite the WWBs the upper ocean anomalies have fallen 1.5°C. The EWBs have had a bigger effect lately.

Anyway, that's exactly what the GFS does. It has rising air setting up over the MC region w/ dateline sinking. That's a -ENSO pattern, which is why the GFS shows a trade burst. Also, it's proof that this event is weakening. This MJO pulse was strong, which helped it, but still, the standing wave was steamrolled unusually easily, & this upcoming -ENSO pattern which the GFS predicts starts the EWB is unusually sticky unless it suddenly changes after the fcst period

[url]https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9c22fca9f8f18dedd4079983fa91e57c8c66760384a38bbbf7d53044679158b1.gif[url]

Don't forget that this is rather a weak event and the standing wave will likely pulsate on and off.

I see this EWB triggered due to the MJO amplifying over the IO (60E). On this graphic, it shows It has rising motion concentrated over 90% of the IO with a slight amount over the MC, with -VP200 anomalies later spreading into the WPAC due to MJO progression.

CFS's forecasts go further out, and show the same although a weaker pulse over the IO, disrupts the present standing wave then has -VP200 anomalies returning over the CPAC:


Also the CFS continue to showsa classic El Nino atmosphere with rising air situated more east.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1134136463266680832

[OURAGAN]

[*]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino12.png

[OURAGAN]

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1134138030955094018



 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1134138735291961344



 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1134143708931264512



 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1134155477410025472



 https://twitter.com/akshaysampathk1/status/1134330876668465152

[NotSparta]

Yeah it's not so clear yet but the warmest scenario so far looks like maintenance. More likely, however, there is some cooling going on there esp w/ interference from Africa & EHem monsoons beginning

[NDG]

I mentioned this to the pros on twitter that even though the latest Euro is still showing El Nino to continue through Fall the trend from its ensembles is that more of them are going to the warm neutral to weak El Nino category and lets not forget how warm biased the Euro is when it come to forecasting ENSO conditions this time of the year.

[Ntxw]

The next few months through early fall will be defined as weak modoki El Nino. ONI will hold >0.5C at least for two more trimonthlies. Daily SOI leans more negative towards El Nino but that has some noise, also some lag effect. The longer term SOI are tilted negative, which is indicative of weak Nino.

A good bet is for persistence the next few months then gradually ease into neutral.



The US, jolted a lot by the plains and California has experienced the wettest 12 month period on record.

The continental United States recently finished its soggiest 12 months in 124 years of modern recordkeeping. The results are visible in satellite measurements of fresh water.

From May 1, 2018, to April 30, 2019, the lower 48 states collectively averaged 36.20 inches (919.48 millimeters) of precipitation, a full 6.25 inches (158.75 mm) above the mean. The previous record (April 2015 to March 2016) was 35.95 inches. According to the National Centers for Environmental Information, ten U.S. states had their wettest 12 months, and three others were in the top three. Many of them were clustered in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest regions.

According to the May 21 report from the U.S. Drought Monitor, just 2.72 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, among the lowest levels in two decades of records. California is completely out of drought for the first time since 2011. As recently as February 2018, one-third of the United States was in drought.

https://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=145101

[SFLcane]

I mentioned this to the pros on twitter that even though the latest Euro is still showing El Nino to continue through Fall the trend from its ensembles is that more of them are going to the warm neutral to weak El Nino category and lets not forget how warm biased the Euro is when it come to forecasting ENSO conditions this time of the year.


https://i.imgur.com/yTZhQWN.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/Odczbn9.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/fsaYei3.jpg

Yes we'll have to see what the June forecast is

[Kingarabian]

The next few months through early fall will be defined as weak modoki El Nino. ONI will hold >0.5C at least for two more trimonthlies. Daily SOI leans more negative towards El Nino but that has some noise, also some lag effect. The longer term SOI are tilted negative, which is indicative of weak Nino.

A good bet is for persistence the next few months then gradually ease into neutral.

[url]https://images2.imgbox.com/d9/30/iF8nMiXd_o.gif[url]

The US, jolted a lot by the plains and California has experienced the wettest 12 month period on record.

The continental United States recently finished its soggiest 12 months in 124 years of modern recordkeeping. The results are visible in satellite measurements of fresh water.

From May 1, 2018, to April 30, 2019, the lower 48 states collectively averaged 36.20 inches (919.48 millimeters) of precipitation, a full 6.25 inches (158.75 mm) above the mean. The previous record (April 2015 to March 2016) was 35.95 inches. According to the National Centers for Environmental Information, ten U.S. states had their wettest 12 months, and three others were in the top three. Many of them were clustered in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest regions.

According to the May 21 report from the U.S. Drought Monitor, just 2.72 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, among the lowest levels in two decades of records. California is completely out of drought for the first time since 2011. As recently as February 2018, one-third of the United States was in drought.

https://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=145101

Agreed.

I would say 50/50 chance of ENSO going into neutral or remaining in weak El Nino by fall. Good chance we go into neutral if this upcoming trade surge does the job. If it fails to cool the subsurface significantly and a WWB follows it, there's a good chance we remain in weak El Nino past the fall. I think at this point in time both options are on the table.

[NotSparta]

The next few months through early fall will be defined as weak modoki El Nino. ONI will hold >0.5C at least for two more trimonthlies. Daily SOI leans more negative towards El Nino but that has some noise, also some lag effect. The longer term SOI are tilted negative, which is indicative of weak Nino.

A good bet is for persistence the next few months then gradually ease into neutral.

[url]https://images2.imgbox.com/d9/30/iF8nMiXd_o.gif[url]

The US, jolted a lot by the plains and California has experienced the wettest 12 month period on record.

The continental United States recently finished its soggiest 12 months in 124 years of modern recordkeeping. The results are visible in satellite measurements of fresh water.

From May 1, 2018, to April 30, 2019, the lower 48 states collectively averaged 36.20 inches (919.48 millimeters) of precipitation, a full 6.25 inches (158.75 mm) above the mean. The previous record (April 2015 to March 2016) was 35.95 inches. According to the National Centers for Environmental Information, ten U.S. states had their wettest 12 months, and three others were in the top three. Many of them were clustered in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest regions.

According to the May 21 report from the U.S. Drought Monitor, just 2.72 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, among the lowest levels in two decades of records. California is completely out of drought for the first time since 2011. As recently as February 2018, one-third of the United States was in drought.

https://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=145101

Agreed.

I would say 50/50 chance of ENSO going into neutral or remaining in weak El Nino by fall. Good chance we go into neutral if this upcoming trade surge does the job. If it fails to cool the subsurface significantly and a WWB follows it, there's a good chance we remain in weak El Nino past the fall. I think at this point in time both options are on the table.

Agree, but leaning a bit towards the former. The EWB trended stronger, especially east of the dateline. Would help the upwelling KW surface & arrest the downwelling KW. Really depends what the EWB does though

[Kingarabian]

The next few months through early fall will be defined as weak modoki El Nino. ONI will hold >0.5C at least for two more trimonthlies. Daily SOI leans more negative towards El Nino but that has some noise, also some lag effect. The longer term SOI are tilted negative, which is indicative of weak Nino.

A good bet is for persistence the next few months then gradually ease into neutral.

[url]https://images2.imgbox.com/d9/30/iF8nMiXd_o.gif[url]

The US, jolted a lot by the plains and California has experienced the wettest 12 month period on record.



https://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=145101

Agreed.

I would say 50/50 chance of ENSO going into neutral or remaining in weak El Nino by fall. Good chance we go into neutral if this upcoming trade surge does the job. If it fails to cool the subsurface significantly and a WWB follows it, there's a good chance we remain in weak El Nino past the fall. I think at this point in time both options are on the table.

Agree, but leaning a bit towards the former. The EWB trended stronger, especially east of the dateline. Would help the upwelling KW surface & arrest the downwelling KW. Really depends what the EWB does though

[url]https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6760db30dff2a263141991d12cc267de2006837186257237ab2dfacc4d13ee0b.gif[url]

GFS trending stronger due to increased amplification over phase 3 while the Euro and CFS flatline and go into the circle after phase 2. It'll come down to if the models push the MJO back over the Pacific or not, which we won't know until about another 2 weeks.

[Kingarabian]

This 90 day hovmoller nicely illustrates the pattern we've been in since January:


So it's not out of the realm to assume that there is potential for a WWB to follow this trade surge.