2019 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1133481968748847104

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1133579468511965184

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1133174262242586624

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1132633641572397056



 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1134439493224751106




WPAC trying to wake up...

[euro6208]

Still above average in ACE although that will start to decline by mid month if the quiet spell doesn't end soon. On average, about two tropical storms form in the Western Pacific basin each June. A bit more active than the average of just 1 TS for May. We'll see what happens when the next KW and MJO starts rolling in soon.

[mrbagyo]

Convection is starting to flare up in the lower latitudes of WPAC.
2nd week of June is goin to be exciting with the projected arrival of the wet phase MJO.

[euro6208]

Storm2k's very own Robert gives his forecast for the season.

[Hayabusa]

Quite an opposite (saying below average) forecast compared with TSR's.

TSR predicts the 2019 Northwest Pacific typhoon season will see activity above the
1965-2018 norm. However, the uncertainties associated with this outlook are
large and the forecast skill at this extended range is historically low.

Was 2018 an El Nino year? Most WPAC storms in 2018 were recurvers.

[galaxy401]

Quite crazy how dead both the WPAC and EPAC are so far considering there is still an El Nino around. It's June and usually both basins will have a powerful storm by now but not only are there any storms, but barely any disturbances to monitor.

I guess the MJO really is a big trigger for activity.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/ptccfeed/status/1135051441729548288




 https://twitter.com/ptccfeed/status/1136243409172148224




Mei-yu ongoing...

[euro6208]

The GFS says that the WPAC wakes up soon...in Mei-yu alley. Some systems deepening to as low as 980's. Just like last year. Some could be classificable.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1136589047537815554




Looks like the WPAC could wake up anytime.

[euro6208]

Since March and counting. No TC's have developed. The only significant TC's to become a TS, TY, STY, and the 1st Cat 5 on record in the month of February and the whole NHEM looks to be becoming insignificant...Hopefully not another backloaded season...

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1136603155062566913

[euro6208]

Can the combo of KW and MJO trigger the first TC since March?

[euro6208]

If that were in lower latitudes, it might be possible. Maybe one of those short lived TC's in the Mei-yu?

[euro6208]

GFS the same. Deepens it to 985 mb. Similiar track and timeframe.

[euro6208]

Sepat?

12z



18z

[euro6208]

GFS still has it. Looking like EURO is picking it up now.

[euro6208]

Quite crazy how dead both the WPAC and EPAC are so far considering there is still an El Nino around. It's June and usually both basins will have a powerful storm by now but not only are there any storms, but barely any disturbances to monitor.

I guess the MJO really is a big trigger for activity.

There was the record breaking Cat 5 Wutip back in February.

Was 2018 an El Nino year? Most WPAC storms in 2018 were recurvers.

Weak el nino.