2019 WPAC Season

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euro6208
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#181 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 31, 2019 7:42 am

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1133481968748847104


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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#182 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 31, 2019 7:45 am

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1133579468511965184


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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#183 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 31, 2019 7:48 am

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1133174262242586624


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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#184 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 31, 2019 8:18 am

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1132633641572397056



 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1134439493224751106




WPAC trying to wake up...
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#185 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 31, 2019 10:48 pm

Image

Still above average in ACE although that will start to decline by mid month if the quiet spell doesn't end soon. On average, about two tropical storms form in the Western Pacific basin each June. A bit more active than the average of just 1 TS for May. We'll see what happens when the next KW and MJO starts rolling in soon.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#186 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Jun 03, 2019 4:01 am

Convection is starting to flare up in the lower latitudes of WPAC.
2nd week of June is goin to be exciting with the projected arrival of the wet phase MJO.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#187 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:49 am

Storm2k's very own Robert gives his forecast for the season.

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#188 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:00 am

Quite an opposite (saying below average) forecast compared with TSR's.
TSR predicts the 2019 Northwest Pacific typhoon season will see activity above the
1965-2018 norm. However, the uncertainties associated with this outlook are
large and the forecast skill at this extended range is historically low.

Image
Was 2018 an El Nino year? Most WPAC storms in 2018 were recurvers.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#189 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:52 pm

Quite crazy how dead both the WPAC and EPAC are so far considering there is still an El Nino around. It's June and usually both basins will have a powerful storm by now but not only are there any storms, but barely any disturbances to monitor.

I guess the MJO really is a big trigger for activity.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#190 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 05, 2019 7:56 am

 https://twitter.com/ptccfeed/status/1135051441729548288




 https://twitter.com/ptccfeed/status/1136243409172148224




Mei-yu ongoing...
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#191 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:50 am

The GFS says that the WPAC wakes up soon...in Mei-yu alley. Some systems deepening to as low as 980's. Just like last year. Some could be classificable. :lol:
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#192 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:34 am

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1136589047537815554




Looks like the WPAC could wake up anytime.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#193 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:45 am

Image
Image
Image

Since March and counting. No TC's have developed. The only significant TC's to become a TS, TY, STY, and the 1st Cat 5 on record in the month of February and the whole NHEM looks to be becoming insignificant...Hopefully not another backloaded season...

Image
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#194 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:07 am

 https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1136603155062566913


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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#195 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jun 07, 2019 7:25 am

Can the combo of KW and MJO trigger the first TC since March?

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#196 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jun 08, 2019 6:28 am

If that were in lower latitudes, it might be possible. Maybe one of those short lived TC's in the Mei-yu?

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#197 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jun 08, 2019 6:32 am

GFS the same. Deepens it to 985 mb. Similiar track and timeframe.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#198 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jun 08, 2019 7:51 pm

Sepat?

12z

Image

18z

Image
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#199 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jun 10, 2019 7:25 am

GFS still has it. Looking like EURO is picking it up now.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#200 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jun 10, 2019 7:27 am

galaxy401 wrote:Quite crazy how dead both the WPAC and EPAC are so far considering there is still an El Nino around. It's June and usually both basins will have a powerful storm by now but not only are there any storms, but barely any disturbances to monitor.

I guess the MJO really is a big trigger for activity.


There was the record breaking Cat 5 Wutip back in February.

Hayabusa wrote:Was 2018 an El Nino year? Most WPAC storms in 2018 were recurvers.


Weak el nino.
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