ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[StruThiO]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... update.pdf

[Kingarabian]

In regards to Modoki prospects for 2019, here's 2002 and 2004's Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 averaged anomalies from May-September:

2002 May-September Nino 1+2 average: -0.2C
2002 May-September Nino 3 average: +0.4C

2004 May-September Nino 1+2 average: -0.9C
2004 May-September Nino 3 average: -0.1C

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indi ... oi.indices

Based on these numbers we're currently following 2002 very closely. If the predicted trade surge strength verifies and we don't see a WWB similar to May's, then I think we'll see Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 tank and see something similar to 2004.
2004's Modoki El Nino is the barometer. Every other west based El Nino acted like a classic El Nino for the most part.

[cycloneye]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
13 June 2019

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory


Synopsis: El Niño is predicted to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (66% chance), with lower odds of continuing through the fall and winter (50-55% chance).

During May, El Niño was reflected in the continued presence of above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly ENSO indices indicate the largest positive SST anomalies were within the central Pacific (+1.1°C in Niño-4 and +0.9°C in Niño-3.4) with smaller departures in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions [Fig. 2]. Upper-ocean subsurface temperatures (averaged across 180°-100°W) were nearly average at the start of May, but positive anomalies increased toward the end of the month in association with a downwelling Kelvin wave [Fig. 3]. Thus, anomalies remained positive at depth in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, with negative anomalies evident in the eastern Pacific [Fig. 4]. Suppressed tropical convection continued over Indonesia, while weak, enhanced convection persisted near the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Low-level wind anomalies were westerly over the western tropical Pacific Ocean, and upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the western and east-central Pacific. Overall, oceanic and atmospheric conditions were consistent with El Niño.

The combined averages in the IRI/CPC plume predict El Niño to continue into Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20, but individual models span ENSO-neutral to El Niño outcomes (generally +0.0°C to +1.0°C; [Fig. 6]). The forecast consensus reflects this uncertainty, with slightly lower chances for El Niño compared to the previous month. Ongoing subseasonal variability within the tropical Pacific contributes to an overall murky picture, but the current downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave should fuel the persistence of El Niño at least in the short-term. In summary, El Niño is predicted to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (66% chance), with lower odds of continuing through the fall and winter (50-55% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

[cycloneye]

As always they discuss further about the update in the blog.

ENSO BLOG

[Kingarabian]

Buoys showing-2C anomalies in that cold pool deep in the WPAC. Depending on how strong this El Nino can peak by the end of the year (stronger El Nino peaks usually followed by higher La Nina chances), I believe there will be a great chance to see a respectable La Nina in 2020.

12z Euro run today shows daily SOI contributions fluctuating between weakly negative/positive for the next couple of days, before tanking the SOI considerably from June 17/18.

[Kingarabian]

GFS taking its "over done" label to new extremes:

[WeatherEmperor]

GFS taking its "over done" label to new extremes:

That would be a WWB right?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Kingarabian]

GFS taking its "over done" label to new extremes:

That would be a WWB right?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This shows anomalously very strong -VP200 anomalies (rising air) over the dateline. Of course if this were to be true we would see a very strong WWB. But it looks to very overdone.

[NotSparta]

GFS taking its "over done" label to new extremes:

That would be a WWB right?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This shows anomalously very strong -VP200 anomalies (rising air) over the dateline. Of course if this were to be true we would see a very strong WWB. But it looks to very overdone.

I understand why it would be there, there must be wicked llvl convergence where the EWB & WWB meet

[Kingarabian]

That would be a WWB right?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This shows anomalously very strong -VP200 anomalies (rising air) over the dateline. Of course if this were to be true we would see a very strong WWB. But it looks to very overdone.

I understand why it would be there, there must be wicked llvl convergence where the EWB & WWB meet

True but not to this extent @ 200mb. Looks related to the +AMM that it shows taking place soon.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1139925154883092480




 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1139926726308519936




 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1139930150114664448

[Kingarabian]

Was about to make a post that the thermocline is now rising and is responding to this EWB but Paul Roundy sums it up in this tweet:
 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1140008180723961856

[NotSparta]

Was about to make a post that the thermocline is now rising and is responding to this EWB but Paul Roundy sums it up in this tweet:
https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1140008180723961856

Yeah the GFS backed way off of the WWB. Mostly had it because of twin TCs which it doesn't show anymore. However, looks like that region will have relaxed trades. East of the dateline, trades remain strong, reinforcing Modoki signature

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1140413556699127809

[Kingarabian]

Was about to make a post that the thermocline is now rising and is responding to this EWB but Paul Roundy sums it up in this tweet:
https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1140008180723961856

Yeah the GFS backed way off of the WWB. Mostly had it because of twin TCs which it doesn't show anymore. However, looks like that region will have relaxed trades. East of the dateline, trades remain strong, reinforcing Modoki signature

Massive spread between the models in regards to the MJO so its tough to know if there will be a WWB or not. The Euro and GFS forecast erratic movement of the MJO showing it retrograding while the CFS shows progression into phase 6 and 7. Just have to wait and see.

[Ntxw]

0.7C this week

[NotSparta]

Was about to make a post that the thermocline is now rising and is responding to this EWB but Paul Roundy sums it up in this tweet:
https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1140008180723961856

Yeah the GFS backed way off of the WWB. Mostly had it because of twin TCs which it doesn't show anymore. However, looks like that region will have relaxed trades. East of the dateline, trades remain strong, reinforcing Modoki signature

Massive spread between the models in regards to the MJO so its tough to know if there will be a WWB or not. The Euro and GFS forecast erratic movement of the MJO showing it retrograding while the CFS shows progression into phase 6 and 7. Just have to wait and see.

I'll lean on GFS/ECMWF. It's been difficult to trust the CFS, and it doesn't help it's got known biases that'll move things that way

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1140616529345748993

[cycloneye]

The CPC Weekly update text that has Niño 3.4 going down to +0.7C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

The Modoki structure, at the moment, is really in place. There is disconnect between the eastern Pacific equatorial winds and the high latitude wavetrain structure. Stronger Aleutian low (cool waters east of Japan) summer time persistent -NAO.

Despite the strong passage over the IO, the SOI was unimpressed.