cycloneye wrote:18z run the opposite.
The GFS is dead, long live the GFS!
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cycloneye wrote:18z run the opposite.
Kingarabian wrote::uarrow: Yeah thanks to the suppressed phase of the MJO.
NDG wrote:Kingarabian wrote::uarrow: Yeah thanks to the suppressed phase of the MJO.
But notice that those conditions have been present since mid May when the MJO was passing through this area.
cycloneye wrote:Kelvin wave thread.
[url]https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1139217353684557825[url]
[url]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1139219616935403520[url]
[url]https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1139222797081649153[url]
[url]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1139228138372812800[url]
Kingarabian wrote:NDG wrote:Kingarabian wrote::uarrow: Yeah thanks to the suppressed phase of the MJO.
But notice that those conditions have been present since mid May when the MJO was passing through this area.
True. Do we have any charts from 2016 to compare?
NDG wrote:Kingarabian wrote:NDG wrote:
But notice that those conditions have been present since mid May when the MJO was passing through this area.
True. Do we have any charts from 2016 to compare?
https://i.imgur.com/lMAiUTX.gif
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... /inex.html
TheStormExpert wrote:If things don’t start picking up in the next few weeks over in the East Pacific NOAA’s forecast may bust in their upper range. Maybe 15/8/4 would be still possible though. Just don’t see 22/13/8.
Kingarabian wrote:NDG wrote:Kingarabian wrote:True. Do we have any charts from 2016 to compare?
https://i.imgur.com/lMAiUTX.gif
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... /inex.html
Pretty comparable to 2016 then with instability below average in June.
NDG wrote:Kingarabian wrote:
Pretty comparable to 2016 then with instability below average in June.
I disagree, this year instability has been much lower & a longer period than in 2016.
NDG wrote:Kingarabian wrote:NDG wrote:
https://i.imgur.com/lMAiUTX.gif
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... /inex.html
I disagree, this year instability has been much lower & a longer period than in 2016.
Kingarabian wrote:NDG wrote:Kingarabian wrote:
Yeah I stand corrected, wasn't reading the increments correctly. If I'm reading the chart correctly, it looks like it starts falling late May/early June and stays below normal through June 20. That being said (I'm sorry if it sounds like I'm cherry picking data here lol), I think on the annual hurricane season indicators thread it was proven that while it's a good tool to have, the instability chart can be pretty misleading in some ways.
But I still think the lack of activity is tied directly to the strong suppressive state of the MJO. So far current MJO activity is behaving pretty similar to June 2016's MJO activity:
https://i.imgur.com/vBVjhGJ.png
In late June and July 2016 the MJO went strong into phase 1 which supports EPAC activity and that's what kicked off the 2016 Pacific hurricane season.
So in regards to this season, the Euro is adamant in weakening the MJO while the GFS and CFS continue to show the MJO going into the Pacific. So if the Euro solution verifies we probably have to wait till July to see a real storm and of course if the NCEP models verify then we'll likely see a system before the end of June.
NotSparta wrote:Kingarabian wrote:NDG wrote:
Yeah I stand corrected, wasn't reading the increments correctly. If I'm reading the chart correctly, it looks like it starts falling late May/early June and stays below normal through June 20. That being said (I'm sorry if it sounds like I'm cherry picking data here lol), I think on the annual hurricane season indicators thread it was proven that while it's a good tool to have, the instability chart can be pretty misleading in some ways.
But I still think the lack of activity is tied directly to the strong suppressive state of the MJO. So far current MJO activity is behaving pretty similar to June 2016's MJO activity:
https://i.imgur.com/vBVjhGJ.png
In late June and July 2016 the MJO went strong into phase 1 which supports EPAC activity and that's what kicked off the 2016 Pacific hurricane season.
So in regards to this season, the Euro is adamant in weakening the MJO while the GFS and CFS continue to show the MJO going into the Pacific. So if the Euro solution verifies we probably have to wait till July to see a real storm and of course if the NCEP models verify then we'll likely see a system before the end of June.
Yeah the chart is terrible for the Atlantic but I'm not 100% sure about the EPAC.
Also, the signal being stronger despite similar MJO is a sign that the base state is less favorable. Would make sense since it looks like activity will be weighted more west
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