ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
Yup that's a true Modoki for sure if it verifies and Nino 1+2 remains near La Nina thresholds.
https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1143915014992121862
https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1143915014992121862
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
SOI for June 27th came in @ -30. Euro showed pressure over Tahiti @ 1013mb for June 27th. Except it came in near 1011.50mb. So anyways I ran some numbers last night off the 12z Euro. Through July 5th it had pressures over Tahiti averaging nearly 1015mb and it had pressures over Darwin averaging nearly 1014.5mb.
I'll re-run the numbers over the weekend and hopefully the Euro has a better handle on the pressures over Tahiti, because it's had high bias there, often being 1-1.5mb's too high throughout June.
However if these numbers stand, then it's a negative SOI setup which would call for relaxed trades for the first half of July. But based on LarryWx's numbers, the atmosphere is acting pretty abnormal. Tahiti pressures if they were to remain this high (1014.5+), would argue for a moderate La Nina (and maybe even a 2017 repeat), while Darwin's pressures (1014.0+) would call for continued El Nino conditions. But regardless of the exact numbers, the forecast is calling for the the SOI to remain negative which means that the atmosphere is still tilted towards El Nino at the time being and at the end of the day, the SOI NEEDS to come up to allow neutral or La Nina conditions to settle in.
Important to note that relaxed trades are in the model's forecasts while 2017 at this time was setting up trade burst after trade burst.
I'll re-run the numbers over the weekend and hopefully the Euro has a better handle on the pressures over Tahiti, because it's had high bias there, often being 1-1.5mb's too high throughout June.
However if these numbers stand, then it's a negative SOI setup which would call for relaxed trades for the first half of July. But based on LarryWx's numbers, the atmosphere is acting pretty abnormal. Tahiti pressures if they were to remain this high (1014.5+), would argue for a moderate La Nina (and maybe even a 2017 repeat), while Darwin's pressures (1014.0+) would call for continued El Nino conditions. But regardless of the exact numbers, the forecast is calling for the the SOI to remain negative which means that the atmosphere is still tilted towards El Nino at the time being and at the end of the day, the SOI NEEDS to come up to allow neutral or La Nina conditions to settle in.
Important to note that relaxed trades are in the model's forecasts while 2017 at this time was setting up trade burst after trade burst.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:SOI for June 27th came in @ -30. Euro showed pressure over Tahiti @ 1013mb for June 27th. Except it came in near 1011.50mb. So anyways I ran some numbers last night off the 12z Euro. Through July 5th it had pressures over Tahiti averaging nearly 1015mb and it had pressures over Darwin averaging nearly 1014.5mb.
I'll re-run the numbers over the weekend and hopefully the Euro has a better handle on the pressures over Tahiti, because it's had high bias there, often being 1-1.5mb's too high throughout June.
However if these numbers stand, then it's a negative SOI setup which would call for relaxed trades for the first half of July. But based on LarryWx's numbers, the atmosphere is acting pretty abnormal. Tahiti pressures if they were to remain this high (1014.5+), would argue for a moderate La Nina (and maybe even a 2017 repeat), while Darwin's pressures (1014.0+) would call for continued El Nino conditions. But regardless of the exact numbers, the forecast is calling for the the SOI to remain negative which means that the atmosphere is still tilted towards El Nino at the time being and at the end of the day, the SOI NEEDS to come up to allow neutral or La Nina conditions to settle in.
Lack of coherent MC convection, is more Nino-ish (no surprise there) and South Pacific cooler (Nina-like sort of). But then again, would you expect anything different than a Nino with the label "Modoki" which means not the same?
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Re: ENSO Updates
Ntxw wrote:Kingarabian wrote:SOI for June 27th came in @ -30. Euro showed pressure over Tahiti @ 1013mb for June 27th. Except it came in near 1011.50mb. So anyways I ran some numbers last night off the 12z Euro. Through July 5th it had pressures over Tahiti averaging nearly 1015mb and it had pressures over Darwin averaging nearly 1014.5mb.
I'll re-run the numbers over the weekend and hopefully the Euro has a better handle on the pressures over Tahiti, because it's had high bias there, often being 1-1.5mb's too high throughout June.
However if these numbers stand, then it's a negative SOI setup which would call for relaxed trades for the first half of July. But based on LarryWx's numbers, the atmosphere is acting pretty abnormal. Tahiti pressures if they were to remain this high (1014.5+), would argue for a moderate La Nina (and maybe even a 2017 repeat), while Darwin's pressures (1014.0+) would call for continued El Nino conditions. But regardless of the exact numbers, the forecast is calling for the the SOI to remain negative which means that the atmosphere is still tilted towards El Nino at the time being and at the end of the day, the SOI NEEDS to come up to allow neutral or La Nina conditions to settle in.
Lack of coherent MC convection, is more Nino-ish (no surprise there) and South Pacific cooler (Nina-like sort of). But then again, would you expect anything different than a Nino with the label "Modoki" which means not the same?
Touche!
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- NotSparta
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Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:SOI for June 27th came in @ -30. Euro showed pressure over Tahiti @ 1013mb for June 27th. Except it came in near 1011.50mb. So anyways I ran some numbers last night off the 12z Euro. Through July 5th it had pressures over Tahiti averaging nearly 1015mb and it had pressures over Darwin averaging nearly 1014.5mb.
I'll re-run the numbers over the weekend and hopefully the Euro has a better handle on the pressures over Tahiti, because it's had high bias there, often being 1-1.5mb's too high throughout June.
However if these numbers stand, then it's a negative SOI setup which would call for relaxed trades for the first half of July. But based on LarryWx's numbers, the atmosphere is acting pretty abnormal. Tahiti pressures if they were to remain this high (1014.5+), would argue for a moderate La Nina (and maybe even a 2017 repeat), while Darwin's pressures (1014.0+) would call for continued El Nino conditions. But regardless of the exact numbers, the forecast is calling for the the SOI to remain negative which means that the atmosphere is still tilted towards El Nino at the time being and at the end of the day, the SOI NEEDS to come up to allow neutral or La Nina conditions to settle in.
Important to note that relaxed trades are in the model's forecasts while 2017 at this time was setting up trade burst after trade burst.
https://i.imgur.com/BKYab39.jpg
Maybe when you say "neutral or La Niña", you should mean cool neutral (if you don't already). Currently even w/ the -SOI the Niño is pretty borderline.
The relaxed trades do make sense given the MJO position which currently strongly favors El Niño.
Also, 2017 was nearly a Moderate La Niña, so I don't think it's a very good comparison as we're not headed anywhere close to that
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: ENSO Updates
Barring some unexpected warming over the next few days, I'd have to imagine next week's Nino 3.4 value is below +0.5C, but it's going to be interesting to see just how low it gets. We likely won't see any more cooling as the trades relax, but it seems unlikely a trade relaxation will be able to ignite a new downwelling KW to restrengthen this Nino.
It is odd, though, how the SOI is remaining consistently negative despite the El Nino influence appearing to fade.
It is odd, though, how the SOI is remaining consistently negative despite the El Nino influence appearing to fade.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
NotSparta wrote:Kingarabian wrote:SOI for June 27th came in @ -30. Euro showed pressure over Tahiti @ 1013mb for June 27th. Except it came in near 1011.50mb. So anyways I ran some numbers last night off the 12z Euro. Through July 5th it had pressures over Tahiti averaging nearly 1015mb and it had pressures over Darwin averaging nearly 1014.5mb.
I'll re-run the numbers over the weekend and hopefully the Euro has a better handle on the pressures over Tahiti, because it's had high bias there, often being 1-1.5mb's too high throughout June.
However if these numbers stand, then it's a negative SOI setup which would call for relaxed trades for the first half of July. But based on LarryWx's numbers, the atmosphere is acting pretty abnormal. Tahiti pressures if they were to remain this high (1014.5+), would argue for a moderate La Nina (and maybe even a 2017 repeat), while Darwin's pressures (1014.0+) would call for continued El Nino conditions. But regardless of the exact numbers, the forecast is calling for the the SOI to remain negative which means that the atmosphere is still tilted towards El Nino at the time being and at the end of the day, the SOI NEEDS to come up to allow neutral or La Nina conditions to settle in.
Important to note that relaxed trades are in the model's forecasts while 2017 at this time was setting up trade burst after trade burst.
https://i.imgur.com/BKYab39.jpg
Maybe when you say "neutral or La Niña", you should mean cool neutral (if you don't already). Currently even w/ the -SOI the Niño is pretty borderline.
The relaxed trades do make sense given the MJO position which currently strongly favors El Niño.
https://i.imgur.com/MwZDaqc.png
Also, 2017 was nearly a Moderate La Niña, so I don't think it's a very good comparison as we're not headed anywhere close to that
2017 went cool neutral for ASO then eventually a full on La Nina. I think it's a good comparison because it's very similar at the Pacific subsurface, similar SST configurations in both the Atlantic and Pacific, and similar SOI state. That's still a possibility we can't cross off until we either see weak El Nino re-inforced regardless of the slight present advantage in warmth. Because if we get a couple of trade bursts we'll head down a very similar path to 2017. It's very simple to see.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:2017 went cool neutral for ASO then eventually a full on La Nina. I think it's a good comparison because it's very similar at the Pacific subsurface, similar SST configurations in both the Atlantic and Pacific, and similar SOI state. That's still a possibility we can't cross off until we either see weak El Nino re-inforced regardless of the slight present advantage in warmth. Because if we get a couple of trade bursts we'll head down a very similar path to 2017. It's very simple to see.
2017 was coming out of the 2016-2017 Nina though. So it didn't take much to get back to the second Nina (2017-2018). The base start now is different.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Ntxw wrote:Kingarabian wrote:2017 went cool neutral for ASO then eventually a full on La Nina. I think it's a good comparison because it's very similar at the Pacific subsurface, similar SST configurations in both the Atlantic and Pacific, and similar SOI state. That's still a possibility we can't cross off until we either see weak El Nino re-inforced regardless of the slight present advantage in warmth. Because if we get a couple of trade bursts we'll head down a very similar path to 2017. It's very simple to see.
2017 was coming out of the 2016-2017 Nina though. So it didn't take much to get back to the second Nina (2017-2018). The base start now is different.
True could be the difference maker hopefully. Don't want to see another catastrophic year similar to 2017.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Fri Jun 28, 2019 1:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ENSO Updates
While dailies are bad to diagnose ENSO, the collapse of +SSTAs typically means a "jerk" out of the El Niño. This will influence the atmospheric pattern by reducing coupling
There's little chance of WWB activity until mid/late July at best, which means that there won't be much for El Niño to go off of for weeks, when it is already anemic
There's little chance of WWB activity until mid/late July at best, which means that there won't be much for El Niño to go off of for weeks, when it is already anemic
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- NotSparta
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Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:NotSparta wrote:Kingarabian wrote:SOI for June 27th came in @ -30. Euro showed pressure over Tahiti @ 1013mb for June 27th. Except it came in near 1011.50mb. So anyways I ran some numbers last night off the 12z Euro. Through July 5th it had pressures over Tahiti averaging nearly 1015mb and it had pressures over Darwin averaging nearly 1014.5mb.
I'll re-run the numbers over the weekend and hopefully the Euro has a better handle on the pressures over Tahiti, because it's had high bias there, often being 1-1.5mb's too high throughout June.
However if these numbers stand, then it's a negative SOI setup which would call for relaxed trades for the first half of July. But based on LarryWx's numbers, the atmosphere is acting pretty abnormal. Tahiti pressures if they were to remain this high (1014.5+), would argue for a moderate La Nina (and maybe even a 2017 repeat), while Darwin's pressures (1014.0+) would call for continued El Nino conditions. But regardless of the exact numbers, the forecast is calling for the the SOI to remain negative which means that the atmosphere is still tilted towards El Nino at the time being and at the end of the day, the SOI NEEDS to come up to allow neutral or La Nina conditions to settle in.
Important to note that relaxed trades are in the model's forecasts while 2017 at this time was setting up trade burst after trade burst.
https://i.imgur.com/BKYab39.jpg
Maybe when you say "neutral or La Niña", you should mean cool neutral (if you don't already). Currently even w/ the -SOI the Niño is pretty borderline.
The relaxed trades do make sense given the MJO position which currently strongly favors El Niño.
https://i.imgur.com/MwZDaqc.png
Also, 2017 was nearly a Moderate La Niña, so I don't think it's a very good comparison as we're not headed anywhere close to that
2017 went cool neutral for ASO then eventually a full on La Nina. I think it's a good comparison because it's very similar at the Pacific subsurface, similar SST configurations in both the Atlantic and Pacific, and similar SOI state. That's still a possibility we can't cross off until we either see weak El Nino re-inforced regardless of the slight present advantage in warmth. Because if we get a couple of trade bursts we'll head down a very similar path to 2017. It's very simple to see.
There's definitely the chance for reinforcement of El Niño causing it to maintain, but this looks like a higher end estimate now
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1144571159524065280
Also note the lack of sinking motion (yellow/oranges) shadings in the CPAC/EPAC on the VP200 hovmoller, well into the end of the forecast period.
But on the other hand very impressive upwelling Kelvin wave:
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1144540737117261826
Also note the lack of sinking motion (yellow/oranges) shadings in the CPAC/EPAC on the VP200 hovmoller, well into the end of the forecast period.
But on the other hand very impressive upwelling Kelvin wave:
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1144540737117261826
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Re: ENSO Updates
Euro still having trouble with forecasting pressures over Tahiti correctly. Daily reading for the June 28th was 1011.47mb while the Euro was showing 1013mb, and daily reading for June 29th was 1011.97mb while it was supposed to be above 1014mb.
These lower than predicted pressures over Tahiti are causing large negative contributions to the 30 day and 90 day SOI.
We'll see if it makes a big difference or not but if the models are not getting the pressure pattern correct we may need to factor in an additional westerly component to the forecast of relaxed trades.
These lower than predicted pressures over Tahiti are causing large negative contributions to the 30 day and 90 day SOI.
We'll see if it makes a big difference or not but if the models are not getting the pressure pattern correct we may need to factor in an additional westerly component to the forecast of relaxed trades.
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Re: ENSO Updates
SOI is still running very negative. I think much like the Fall and early Spring when it gave us a hint that major warming wasn't going to occur, it's giving us hints now to keep it steady still. There's going to be cooling for sure come Monday's update but ONI will still be within El Nino levels (new month value).
Also the flurry of EPAC cyclones usually tends to slow down the trades east of the IDL.
Also the flurry of EPAC cyclones usually tends to slow down the trades east of the IDL.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
Here's the pressure forecast for Tahiti and Darwin (note these are rounded estimates). It's derived from today's 12z Euro:
Tahiti:
Darwin:
IF this forecast holds true, we should see the SOI turn positive from June30-July3 before crashing again.
Tahiti:
Code: Select all
June 30:1014.75
July 1:1016.00
July 2:1016.50
July 3:1016.00
July 4:1016.00
July 5:1016.00
July 6:1015.00
July 7:1014.00
July 8:1014.00
Darwin:
Code: Select all
June 30:1013.50
July 1:1014.00
July 2:1014.00
July 3:1015.00
July 4:1015.50
July 5:1015.00
July 6:1015.50
July 7:1016.00
July 8:1015.50
IF this forecast holds true, we should see the SOI turn positive from June30-July3 before crashing again.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:SOI for June 27th came in @ -30. Euro showed pressure over Tahiti @ 1013mb for June 27th. Except it came in near 1011.50mb. So anyways I ran some numbers last night off the 12z Euro. Through July 5th it had pressures over Tahiti averaging nearly 1015mb and it had pressures over Darwin averaging nearly 1014.5mb.
I'll re-run the numbers over the weekend and hopefully the Euro has a better handle on the pressures over Tahiti, because it's had high bias there, often being 1-1.5mb's too high throughout June.
However if these numbers stand, then it's a negative SOI setup which would call for relaxed trades for the first half of July. But based on LarryWx's numbers, the atmosphere is acting pretty abnormal. Tahiti pressures if they were to remain this high (1014.5+), would argue for a moderate La Nina (and maybe even a 2017 repeat), while Darwin's pressures (1014.0+) would call for continued El Nino conditions. But regardless of the exact numbers, the forecast is calling for the the SOI to remain negative which means that the atmosphere is still tilted towards El Nino at the time being and at the end of the day, the SOI NEEDS to come up to allow neutral or La Nina conditions to settle in.
Important to note that relaxed trades are in the model's forecasts while 2017 at this time was setting up trade burst after trade burst.
https://i.imgur.com/BKYab39.jpg
King,
I'm estimating SLPs for June of 2019 as follows: Tahiti 1013.5, Darwin 1013.75. For Junes, avg. Tahiti is ~1014.0 and avg. Darwin is only ~1012.7. So, they both are consistent with somewhat favoring El Nino for the upcoming fall although Darwin moreso.
So, I looked at June Darwin SLPs as per this link:
ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/ ... nmslp.html
- Only 9 of the last 143 Junes had a higher SLP at Darwin
- In the range of 1013.5-1014.0: 1885, 1911, 1914, 1929, 1940, 1941, 1949, 1965, 1977, 1982, 1988, 1993, 2011, 2017, 2018; 9 of these 15 had oncoming Nino, 2 neutral, 4 Nina
June SOI will be ~-10.
- Only 22 of the last 143 Junes had sub -10
- These were in the -8 to -12 range: 1882, 1899, 1911, 1914, 1919, 1946, 1949, 1963, 1965, 1972, 1984, 1985, 1992, 1994, 2012, 2015, 2017; 8 of these 17 had oncoming Nino, 6 neutral, 3 Nina
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ENSO Updates
LarryWx wrote:Kingarabian wrote:SOI for June 27th came in @ -30. Euro showed pressure over Tahiti @ 1013mb for June 27th. Except it came in near 1011.50mb. So anyways I ran some numbers last night off the 12z Euro. Through July 5th it had pressures over Tahiti averaging nearly 1015mb and it had pressures over Darwin averaging nearly 1014.5mb.
I'll re-run the numbers over the weekend and hopefully the Euro has a better handle on the pressures over Tahiti, because it's had high bias there, often being 1-1.5mb's too high throughout June.
However if these numbers stand, then it's a negative SOI setup which would call for relaxed trades for the first half of July. But based on LarryWx's numbers, the atmosphere is acting pretty abnormal. Tahiti pressures if they were to remain this high (1014.5+), would argue for a moderate La Nina (and maybe even a 2017 repeat), while Darwin's pressures (1014.0+) would call for continued El Nino conditions. But regardless of the exact numbers, the forecast is calling for the the SOI to remain negative which means that the atmosphere is still tilted towards El Nino at the time being and at the end of the day, the SOI NEEDS to come up to allow neutral or La Nina conditions to settle in.
Important to note that relaxed trades are in the model's forecasts while 2017 at this time was setting up trade burst after trade burst.
https://i.imgur.com/BKYab39.jpg
King,
I'm estimating SLPs for June of 2019 as follows: Tahiti 1013.5, Darwin 1013.75. For Junes, avg. Tahiti is ~1014.0 and avg. Darwin is only ~1012.7. So, they both are consistent with somewhat favoring El Nino for the upcoming fall although Darwin moreso.
So, I looked at June Darwin SLPs as per this link:
ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/ ... nmslp.html
- Only 9 of the last 143 Junes had a higher SLP at Darwin
- In the range of 1013.5-1014.0: 1885, 1911, 1914, 1929, 1940, 1941, 1949, 1965, 1977, 1982, 1988, 1993, 2011, 2017, 2018; 9 of these 15 had oncoming Nino, 2 neutral, 4 Nina
June SOI will be ~-10.
- Only 22 of the last 143 Junes had sub -10
- These were in the -8 to -12 range: 1882, 1899, 1911, 1914, 1919, 1946, 1949, 1963, 1965, 1972, 1984, 1985, 1992, 1994, 2012, 2015, 2017; 8 of these 17 had oncoming Nino, 6 neutral, 3 Nina
Good to see you back, Larry.
Thanks for hashing those out. Looks like there is a slight lean for El Nino to persist through the fall however it still seems pretty inconclusive. We'll need to see how July unfolds and so far it looks like there will be pretty high pressures over Tahiti and Darwin.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Not saying this will happen, but fwiw, all these yrs had a -ENSO (ENS ONI < 0 DJF) by the end of the yr
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1145375919512662016
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1145375919512662016
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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
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Re: ENSO Updates
NotSparta wrote:Not saying this will happen, but fwiw, all these yrs had a -ENSO (ENS ONI < saw0 DJF) by the end of the yr
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1145375919512662016
If we are to use a seemingly inactive WPAC season as indicator for - ENSO later in the year, I think there are some cases when the weak El Nino continuing into the second year actually killed the basin..1969 and 1977 to be exact, and I see the ONI for DJF in those years are still within El Nino threshold.
I don't know, but I'm inclined to think that the ENSO state not flipping yet could be the culprit of this inactivity...though there are more to be seen in the coming months, both in TC activity elsewhere and in the actual ENSO evolution.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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