EPAC: BARBARA - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#81 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 30, 2019 7:46 am

12z Best Track

Location: 10.4°N 109.5°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 50 NM
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#82 Postby plasticup » Sun Jun 30, 2019 8:32 am

Kingarabian wrote:00z Euro hours 120-240:
https://i.imgur.com/jZu2EYh.gif

240 hours :lol:

Honestly, the safest place to be is in the bullseye of a 240 model - they never verify.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#83 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 30, 2019 8:54 am

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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Tropical Storm

#84 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 30, 2019 9:45 am

...TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 110.4W
ABOUT 850 MI...1370 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES




Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
900 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019

Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure and
associated convection located several hundred miles southwest of
southern Mexico has become better organized, with the center
embedded in the northern side of a large area of deep convection.
In addition, earlier scatterometer data revealed that 35-kt winds
existed in the eastern semicircle of the developing cyclone.
This intensity is in agreement with the latest subjective satellite
estimate from TAFB and thus advisories are started on Tropical
Storm Barbara, the second named storm of the Eastern Pacific
hurricane season.

Barbara's initial motion is 285/14 kt. A mid-level ridge to the
north of the cyclone will steer it to the west-northwest for the
next several days. Later on in the forecast period, Barbara will
approach the southwestern periphery of the ridge which should induce
some slowing of the forward motion. The NHC track forecast lies in
the middle of a suite of guidance that is tightly clustered through
96 hours and begins to diverge slightly beyond that time frame.

The overall satellite presentation of Barbara suggests that there is
some shear affecting the convection over the northern part of the
cyclone. Statistical guidance concurs with this and indicates
10-15 kt of northwesterly shear currently over the circulation.
This shear is forecast by the guidance to begin to abate in about 24
hours. Otherwise, Barbara is expected to be in a favorable
environment for intensification and over warm waters for the next 4
to 5 days. The official forecast takes into account this initial
shear during the early inner-core development stages of Barbara, and
calls for a slow and steady strengthening through 24 hours.
Thereafter, the lower-shear environment and likely consolidating
inner-core should allow for a faster rate of intensification. The
official forecast intensity is close to the dynamical guidance
through 72 hours, and is near the upper edge of the guidance beyond
72 hours, bringing Barbara to category 2 intensity by 72 hours.
After 96 hours, Barbara will be approaching a tight gradient in SSTs
to its north. Also, both dynamical and statistical guidance indicate
that the cyclone will be approaching a region with increasing
southwesterly shear. Both of these factors should contribute to a
gradual weakening after 96 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 10.6N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 11.1N 112.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 11.6N 115.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 12.0N 118.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 12.4N 121.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 13.5N 125.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 15.0N 128.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 16.0N 131.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Tropical Storm

#85 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 30, 2019 10:05 am

:uarrow:

105mph peak? Pretty conservative.
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Tropical Storm

#86 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 30, 2019 10:41 am

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942019 06/30/19 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 45 55 70 84 92 91 89 86 78
V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 42 45 55 70 84 92 91 89 86 78
V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 40 43 51 65 79 85 81 74 66
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 12 13 13 12 11 6 9 6 4 3 6 4 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 8 5 0 -4 -8 -6 -3 0 1 8 5
SHEAR DIR 308 298 294 308 329 66 55 44 357 238 270 247 242
SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.9 28.2 27.7 27.5 27.3 26.0
POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 158 158 156 153 152 154 146 140 138 137 124
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -51.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.0 -52.5 -51.8 -52.4 -51.6 -51.9 -51.4 -51.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
700-500 MB RH 72 71 70 71 71 73 71 67 60 58 58 56 49
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 16 16 17 20 25 29 31 31 31 31 29
850 MB ENV VOR 3 12 12 10 5 16 23 32 36 50 46 48 44
200 MB DIV 128 154 161 121 108 116 120 184 127 101 55 51 7
700-850 TADV -15 -13 -12 -13 -11 -5 -3 -4 -3 2 1 2 0
LAND (KM) 1099 1154 1228 1328 1394 1497 1620 1740 1809 1888 1958 2029 2103
LAT (DEG N) 10.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 109.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 15 14 13 12 11 11 9 7 8 10 12
HEAT CONTENT 53 30 22 20 18 20 24 55 11 7 6 8 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 27.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 20. 20. 19. 15.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 6.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 20. 35. 49. 57. 56. 54. 51. 43.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.4 109.5

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942019 INVEST 06/30/19 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 5.3
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.41 3.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 134.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.88 6.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.25 1.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 3.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 46% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 29.6% 26.2% 20.1% 12.6% 26.8% 40.7% 45.6%
Logistic: 5.8% 34.3% 21.4% 12.9% 1.8% 14.4% 11.8% 7.8%
Bayesian: 3.0% 12.8% 7.1% 1.3% 0.1% 5.1% 5.8% 2.9%
Consensus: 7.6% 25.6% 18.3% 11.4% 4.9% 15.4% 19.5% 18.8%
DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 5.0% 6.0% 9.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942019 INVEST 06/30/19 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Tropical Storm

#87 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 30, 2019 10:58 am

0z ECMWF and 6z GFS both show this getting blasted apart to some extent before approaching the Hawaiian Islands. Not too concerned about them at the moment given the likely weakening after day 6 or so.
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Tropical Storm

#88 Postby NotSparta » Sun Jun 30, 2019 12:12 pm

Barbara's convection is a bit south displaced, as you can see generally where the LLC lies, north of the center of the convective blob.

Image
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Tropical Storm

#89 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 30, 2019 12:46 pm

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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Tropical Storm

#90 Postby Chris90 » Sun Jun 30, 2019 12:55 pm

Kingarabian wrote::uarrow:

105mph peak? Pretty conservative.


If they're forecasting 90kts right from the start, there's usually a good bet it's going to achieve major, and they're probably expecting it. While the tropics have been slow the past few weeks I've been going through some archives, and the impression I have is that they've become a tad bit more conservative over the years.
I'm feeling fairly good about my call for 120kts.
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Tropical Storm

#91 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 30, 2019 1:10 pm

12z Euro stronger than past runs thru 72 hours. 989 mbs at 00z vs 975 mbs at 12z.
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Tropical Storm

#92 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 30, 2019 1:16 pm

Much stronger thru 96 hours,957 mbs at 12z vs 974 at 00z.
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Tropical Storm

#93 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 30, 2019 1:35 pm

NotSparta wrote:Barbara's convection is a bit south displaced, as you can see generally where the LLC lies, north of the center of the convective blob.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/FfXJGRd.gif[/rl]

Yeah shear is blowing convection off from north of the system. Other than that, Barbara looks like its set to be an intense major hurricane soon as the shear relaxes.
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Tropical Storm

#94 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 30, 2019 1:46 pm

TXPZ21 KNES 301819
TCSENP

A. 02E (BARBARA)

B. 30/1800Z

C. 10.7N

D. 111.4W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...4/10 BANDING FOR A DT=2.5. MET=2.0. PT=2.5. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Tropical Storm

#95 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 30, 2019 1:48 pm

18z Best Track up to 40 kts.


Location: 10.7°N 111.4°W
Maximum Winds: 40 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1008 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Tropical Storm

#96 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 30, 2019 1:53 pm

At 216 hours we have a big threat if Euro is right.

Image

Run ends weakening but still some good winds.

Image
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Tropical Storm

#97 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Jun 30, 2019 2:15 pm

NotSparta wrote:Barbara's convection is a bit south displaced, as you can see generally where the LLC lies, north of the center of the convective blob.

https://i.imgur.com/FfXJGRd.gif

That's pretty normal for a monsoon trough system early in its life, even in a low shear environment. As it detaches, some of the best low level convergence still remains on the south side of the system with the monsoon trough. It happens quite a bit in the Western Pacific too.
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Tropical Storm

#98 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Jun 30, 2019 2:17 pm

cycloneye wrote:At 216 hours we have a big threat if Euro is right.

https://i.imgur.com/76KAN3P.png

Run ends weakening but still some good winds.

https://i.imgur.com/1Obx2uu.png

Should probably specify that the system is being torn apart by shear on this run. Note the extremely rapid weakening (~980 to ~1002 mb) in twenty-four hours. Ad verbatim: BARBARA literally goes from a strong Cat-1 hurricane to a low-end tropical storm just as it nears the Big Island. Since BARBARA may well turn out to be a compact and intense system early on, any increase in shear would make the rate of weakening on the ECMWF seem quite reasonable.
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Tropical Storm

#99 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 30, 2019 2:32 pm

The day 9 to 10 weakening is due to moving over a 10k volcano in all likelihood.

I expect shear to be a problem in general though.
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Tropical Storm

#100 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 30, 2019 2:43 pm

Looking better as the hours pass.Convection over the LLC trying to wrap around. By the way,that little black dot is French Clipperton Island.

[imgur]Image[/imgur]
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