ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[CyclonicFury]

The July CanSIPS came in considerably cooler and now shows a transition to warm-neutral ENSO this summer, before appearing to show a new east-based weak El Nino event forming this winter.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1145680850148843521

[StruThiO]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Kingarabian]

Very robust upwelling Kelvin wave showing up on those PENTAD graphics. No doubt about that. But to also have a standing El Nino wave in the EPAC developing at the same is head scratching.
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1145713358999621632

[Kingarabian]

Here's the pressure forecast for Tahiti and Darwin (note these are rounded estimates). It's derived from today's 12z Euro:
Tahiti:

Code: Select all

June 30:1014.75
July 1:1016.00
July 2:1016.50
July 3:1016.00
July 4:1016.00
July 5:1016.00
July 6:1015.00
July 7:1014.00
July 8:1014.00

Darwin:

Code: Select all

June 30:1013.50
July 1:1014.00
July 2:1014.00
July 3:1015.00
July 4:1015.50
July 5:1015.00
July 6:1015.50
July 7:1016.00
July 8:1015.50

IF this forecast holds true, we should see the SOI turn positive from June30-July3 before crashing again.

I give up. Euro continues to do poorly and forecasting correct pressures over Tahiti. Pressures continue to come in lower than modeled.

[Ntxw]

Here's the pressure forecast for Tahiti and Darwin (note these are rounded estimates). It's derived from today's 12z Euro:
Tahiti:

Code: Select all

June 30:1014.75
July 1:1016.00
July 2:1016.50
July 3:1016.00
July 4:1016.00
July 5:1016.00
July 6:1015.00
July 7:1014.00
July 8:1014.00

Darwin:

Code: Select all

June 30:1013.50
July 1:1014.00
July 2:1014.00
July 3:1015.00
July 4:1015.50
July 5:1015.00
July 6:1015.50
July 7:1016.00
July 8:1015.50

IF this forecast holds true, we should see the SOI turn positive from June30-July3 before crashing again.

I give up. Euro continues to do poorly and forecasting correct pressures over Tahiti. Pressures continue to come in lower than modeled.

The cold waters over the MC (Darwin included) is also a consistent influence causing this. This region is a key player in the equatorial tropics as well. So while the Pacific has cooled, the MC has not warmed (important for Nina) to provide convection away from the Pacific.

[NotSparta]

Very robust upwelling Kelvin wave showing up on those PENTAD graphics. No doubt about that. But to also have a standing El Nino wave in the EPAC developing at the same is head scratching.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1145713358999621632

Definitely appears influenced by the +PMM. If that'll help the Niño, that I'm less sure of

[floridasun78]

so atl ocean side may pick up with kvein wave moving east? weaker elnino

[Kingarabian]

The cold waters over the MC (Darwin included) is also a consistent influence causing this. This region is a key player in the equatorial tropics as well. So while the Pacific has cooled, the MC has not warmed (important for Nina) to provide convection away from the Pacific.

And I believe that's causing tilt in the pressure pattern with at least some correlation with SOI continuing to be more negative than modeled, forcing the GFS to to adjust and show a prolonged reduced trade event.

EPS also has something similar:
 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1145693755967717376




So by theory, this would give the Nino regions relief from cooling. But for how long? We'll see.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1146065256491302914

[Ntxw]

This is the reasoning to hold steady and not let day to day and even week to week changes get excited one way or the other. When there is conflicting signals it tends to balance each other out. Just as cooling dominated the past few weeks, it may switch to warming for a few weeks.

[Kingarabian]

SOI finally switched positive. Let's see how long it lasts.

[Kingarabian]

I don't think there will be Nino associated shear over the Caribbean nor the MDR through ASO. But because there is a Nino standing wave which is likely associated with a rising air branch of the Walker cell -- if it persists, there's a chance for all the rising air over the EPAC to sink back down somewhere over the Atlantic.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1146058695329099776

[SFLcane]

This is the reasoning to hold steady and not let day to day and even week to week changes get excited one way or the other. When there is conflicting signals it tends to balance each other out. Just as cooling dominated the past few weeks, it may switch to warming for a few weeks.

https://images2.imgbox.com/07/7f/Ph7k0nWA_o.gif

El Niño could rebound but the subsurface is quite cool still.

[Ntxw]

ONI for AMJ came in at +0.7C which means there is/was still El Nino (weak and modoki). If cooling in theory were to continue MJJ may not make it to neutral but JJA could in the September update.

[StruThiO]

latest buoys/subsurface

[Ntxw]

SOI finally switched positive. Let's see how long it lasts.

Not very long if you're looking for continuous +SOI. Darwin's pressures remain high. The walker circulation is farther to the east than cold neutral or Nina due to the cold MC.



This is strictly a Central Pacific squeezed modoki now. Image below courtesy of Notsparta's site, very good if you want a clean look from OISSTv2.

[weathaguyry]

Here's how the Euro pressure forecast from 12z 6/29 held up...
(The left is the forecasted value, the right is the observation)

Tahiti
6/30:1014.75/1013.04
7/1:1016.0/1013.86
7/2:1016.5/1015.49
7/3:1016.0/1015.23
7/4:1016.0/1015.60

Darwin
6/30:1013.5/1013.10
7/1:1014.0/1013.05
7/2:1014.0/1013.30
7/3:1015.0/1014.25
7/4:1015.5/1015.05

Based on the forecast, the SOI should've been decently positive from 6/30-7/3, however the SOI only went positive on 7/2 (7.63), and barely on 7/3 (0.18). It's frustrating that the forecasts are not verifying, because the SOI is one of the only indicators that is still solidly leaning towards El Nino atm. Despite numerous forecasts to go positive, the SOI continues to verify lower than forecasted.

[Kingarabian]

SOI finally switched positive. Let's see how long it lasts.

Not very long if you're looking for continuous +SOI. Darwin's pressures remain high. The walker circulation is farther to the east than cold neutral or Nina due to the cold MC.

[url]https://images2.imgbox.com/0b/92/v3rdPFxr_o.png[url]

This is strictly a Central Pacific squeezed modoki now. Image below courtesy of Notsparta's site, very good if you want a clean look from OISSTv2.

[url]https://images2.imgbox.com/98/16/DyqqfxKZ_o.png[url]

Yes pretty evident. The forecasts so far are opposite of what happened in 2017.

[Kingarabian]

Here's how the Euro pressure forecast from 12z 6/29 held up...
(The left is the forecasted value, the right is the observation)

Tahiti
6/30:1014.75/1013.04
7/1:1016.0/1013.86
7/2:1016.5/1015.49
7/3:1016.0/1015.23
7/4:1016.0/1015.60

Darwin
6/30:1013.5/1013.10
7/1:1014.0/1013.05
7/2:1014.0/1013.30
7/3:1015.0/1014.25
7/4:1015.5/1015.05

Based on the forecast, the SOI should've been decently positive from 6/30-7/3, however the SOI only went positive on 7/2 (7.63), and barely on 7/3 (0.18). It's frustrating that the forecasts are not verifying, because the SOI is one of the only indicators that is still solidly leaning towards El Nino atm. Despite numerous forecasts to go positive, the SOI continues to verify lower than forecasted.

For what it's worth, I got these numbers from yesterdays 12Z Euro run, which would be July 3rd:

Code: Select all

Tahiti:
July 4:1016.00
Juiy 5:1016.00
Juiy 6:1014.00
Juiy 7:1014.00
Juiy 8:1015.00
Juiy 9:1015.50
Juiy 10:1015.00
Juiy 11:1015.00
Juiy 12:1014.00


Code: Select all

Darwin:
July 4:1015.50
Juiy 5:1015.00
Juiy 6:1015.00
Juiy 7:1016.25
Juiy 8:1016.25
Juiy 9:1014.50
Juiy 10:1015.00
Juiy 11:1015.50
Juiy 12:1015.50


So a negative setup is in the cards if this verifies. I also compared with the GFS which is similar.