ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Is up so post away.

[Aric Dunn]

Well look at that lol.. now we can get the hurricane models in for 12z :p

[NDG]

Wow, a good 24 hrs sooner than I thought, lol.

[Pearl River]

Wellllll doggies now granny.....looky what Jethro found here. Lol

[dexterlabio]

An invest in the middle of mainland US? Not something we see every year...

[Nimbus]

The mid or upper level vorticity appears to be centered further east from that little low level spin on the Mississippi/Alabama border. Could mean some SW/NE eccentricity if the low level spin hits the water near Pensacola first.

[cycloneye]

First Best Track:

Location: 33.1°N 83.7°W
Maximum Winds: 15 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1011 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM

[NDG]

The mid or upper level vorticity appears to be centered further east from that little low level spin on the Mississippi/Alabama border. Could mean some SW/NE eccentricity if the low level spin hits the water near Pensacola first.

I disagree, the spin over the MS/AL border is clearly a small upper level low, nothing will come out of this.
The low to the mid level vorticity is over GA right over the surface trough clearly seen on surface observations.

[zhukm29]

Wow, an invest tagged while still over the US? Definitely not something we see often...

[tarheelprogrammer]

What are the limiting factors for development of this system?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1148222966565670913

[Steve]

Soupbone,

Joe didn't say specifically other than to say they are very bullish on this being a hurricane landfall threat to the Golden Triangle. He said they couldn't release the track yet because they had recently distributed it to their paying clients, but they'd put it out later today to the public.

I don't have an opinion at this point. We don't get a whole lot of East-West moving system across the northern Gulf. Faye (with embedded Eduardo or vice versa) happened back when. I remember Barometer Bob (up in Jacksonville) going ballistic over being chided that there wasn't really a storm developing on top of him which he correctly identified. Then there was Ike in 2008 which was 150-200 miles offshore but flooded thousands of homes in southern Terrebonne Parish below Houma. You'd think this might be closer to shore than Ike was, and maybe not as strong as it's passing coastal SC LA if the models have it right. And if they do, you'd have to think somewhere between Berwick/Morgan City and Galveston unless the trend is further south with a stronger ridge over the plains forcing it either due west or south of due west.

It's going to be a fun tracking week for July. No doubt everyone from the FL Panhandle (including South Georgia), to southern Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana are going to get in on some squalls - wind and rain - and will at one point or other be on the eastern side. With a developing system (assuming it does), there will be alternating convection builds over water and over land until a center gets fully established. Some of the land storms that fire near the coast (most likely in the evening) could dump tons of rain, so people have to be prepared for ponding and heavy downpours. That's all I have for now other than to say that this seems like a setup where you'll have a system strengthening or at least static at landfall rather than a decaying system.

[AJC3]

Soupbone,

Joe didn't say specifically other than to say they are very bullshit on this being a hurricane landfall threat to the Golden Triangle.

Autocorrect FTL

[SoupBone]

Soupbone,

Joe didn't say specifically other than to say they are very bullshit on this being a hurricane landfall threat to the Golden Triangle.

I don't know why you have to curse at me, but I appreciate your explanation regardless.

[Tireman4]

Lots of days to come...more hours to watch...lots of time to digest this all. Models will flip flop..they do all the time. Have fun folks..

[psyclone]

With the westerly solutions carrying the day...much of the gulf coast is going to get boatloads of rain. We've had heavy showers here much of the night and this wet pattern will remain until 92l conceals and shifts west

[Nimbus]

The mid or upper level vorticity appears to be centered further east from that little low level spin on the Mississippi/Alabama border. Could mean some SW/NE eccentricity if the low level spin hits the water near Pensacola first.

I disagree, the spin over the MS/AL border is clearly a small upper level low, nothing will come out of this.
The low to the mid level vorticity is over GA right over the surface trough clearly seen on surface observations.

The 10 meter surface winds are rotating back NE at the MS/AL border so its not an upper low.
Might be just a temporary elongation of the circulation which will dissipate.
If it persists and convection blooms off Pensacola it could gain dominance, its definitely not dominant from the water vapor imagery now.

[GCANE]

MCS's firing over the NE GOM this morning are creating updrafts.
This is reinforcing the anticyclone that is anchored in the NE GOM.
One factor that will likely strengthen 92L as it gets into the water.

[tolakram]

Surface winds appear to show the low close to where the NHC tagged, but you can also see the two features, one near the GA/AL border and the other east of that.

https://www.windy.com/?32.657,-82.336,7

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Ok..Ill start..I know the 12Z isn't out yet but.... What effects for Pasco/Hillsborough area? how much rain? I am concerned already because the ground is sloshy still and wont perch as it is. Do not need any additional rain.