ATL: BARRY - Models

[Blinhart]

Unless the UkMet is doing something with the center and that western convection then at this point it's really trying to make a statement.

It could be expecting it to stack further South than it is right now, which would cause it to go further West, I don't think Texas is in the window now (but things change). I can still see it making it to as far west as Cameron but probably closer to Pecan Island (which is about half way between Grand Chenier and Intercoastal City).

[NDG]

Come on UKMET.

https://i.imgur.com/FiBdJFS.png

Complete trash.

[StormLogic]

As usual, in 2017 the official NHC track forecasts for Atlantic storms were better than those of any individual computer model at all forecast time periods, although the European Center (ECMWF) model was very close in accuracy to the official forecast. The UKMET model made a big jump in accuracy compared to its performance in 2014 - 2016, and was the second-best model in 2017. NOAA’s GFS model, which had been very close to the European model in accuracy from 2014 – 2016, fell into the third tier, with an accuracy similar to that of the HWRF and CMC (Canadian) models. The simple BAMM model did quite well, outperforming two sophisticated dynamical models, the HMON and COAMPS-TC, at many forecast times.

per Dr. Jeff Masters · May 18, 2018

[stormlover2013]

It’s not going to happen but how crazy would it be if ukmet was right, I rem few years back all modes had one storm going one way and gfs kept saying the other way and was right.

[NDG]

UKMET known for being fairly accurate. Whats it sniffing out that the others are not?

All it has been sniffing is some flaca, it has been way too fast with forward speed. Way too strong with ridging too it’s north.

[sphelps8681]

Anything is possible. Look at harvey made landfall then skirted the coast and stalling bringing massive flood from Houston to Beaumont. My area had close to 54in left my town like an island with no way in or out except by boat. So it can happen. Maybe UKMET is hinting at a reverse of harvey.

[StormLogic]

UKMET known for being fairly accurate. Whats it sniffing out that the others are not?

All it has been sniffing is some flaca, it has been way too fast with forward speed. Way too strong with ridging too it’s north.

For being 2nd most accurate in 2017 season doesn't tell me otherwise. Like I've said for few days now, lets not be concrete on forecasts just yet. Vortex can shift more south and if that happens...

[SoupBone]

UKMET known for being fairly accurate. Whats it sniffing out that the others are not?

If the GFS, Euro and others are right, the UKMET has apparently been sniffing glue rather than sniffing out systems paths.

[StormLogic]

UKMET known for being fairly accurate. Whats it sniffing out that the others are not?

If the GFS, Euro and others are right, the UKMET has apparently been sniffing glue rather than sniffing out systems paths.

The path is going to change, I'm almost positive at this point. But hey, lets not argue with GFS & EURO

[sphelps8681]

UKMET known for being fairly accurate. Whats it sniffing out that the others are not?

If the GFS, Euro and others are right, the UKMET has apparently been sniffing glue rather than sniffing out systems paths.

The path is going to change, I'm almost positive at this point. But hey, lets not argue with GFS & EURO

Where is the Rock when you need him. He makes conversations so lively.

[LarryWx]

I've found the UKMET over the last few years to have a tendency of being to far left due to assuming too strong ridging to the north of storms.

[stormlover2013]

I've found the UKMET over the last few years to have a tendency of being to far left due to assuming too strong ridging to the north of storms.

But dang it’s 2 days out and has had the same run for 4 straight runs lol crazy

[BigB0882]

GFS actually shifted considerably west..

Can someone post an image of the GFS? I saw where landfall was but would like to see the next frame to see where it goes once inland. Curious what side BTR is on with this run. Have been crossing my fingers to sneak on the west side with some of these eastward shifts.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

UK met was great with Harvey and Irma, especially with Irma as it sniffed out the track within a few miles days ahead of the others

but I have not seen it perform at all since 2017

[cycloneye]

GFS actually shifted considerably west..

Can someone post an image of the GFS? I saw where landfall was but would like to see the next frame to see where it goes once inland. Curious what side BTR is on with this run. Have been crossing my fingers to sneak on the west side with some of these eastward shifts.

Images of the models are posted on the Barry models thread.

[sphelps8681]

[quote="SEASON_CANCELED"]UK met was great with Harvey and Irma, especially with Irma as it sniffed out the track within a few miles days ahead of the others



I agree. When harvey hit land it skirted the coast and dumped tremendous amounts of rain. Could be the reverse of Harvey. Skirts the coast then makes landfall.

[BigB0882]

GFS actually shifted considerably west..

Can someone post an image of the GFS? I saw where landfall was but would like to see the next frame to see where it goes once inland. Curious what side BTR is on with this run. Have been crossing my fingers to sneak on the west side with some of these eastward shifts.

Images of the models are posted on the Barry models thread.

This is the models thread.

Unless images aren’t showing up because I’m on my phone which does occasionally happen.

[Nederlander]

I used to rank the UKMET right along with the old GFS, both just a notch below the euro. But this looks like it will end up being a very poor performance for that model.

[NDG]

UKMET known for being fairly accurate. Whats it sniffing out that the others are not?

All it has been sniffing is some flaca, it has been way too fast with forward speed. Way too strong with ridging too it’s north.

For being 2nd most accurate in 2017 season doesn't tell me otherwise. Like I've said for few days now, lets not be concrete on forecasts just yet. Vortex can shift more south and if that happens...

Just because it might have been the second best model two years ago does not mean crap. All I know is that so far up to today it has not verified very well with Barry.

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS actually shifted considerably west..

Can someone post an image of the GFS? I saw where landfall was but would like to see the next frame to see where it goes once inland. Curious what side BTR is on with this run. Have been crossing my fingers to sneak on the west side with some of these eastward shifts.

No it didnt shift west...