ATL: BARRY - Models

[w5yne]

And the Model Flip Flops Continue....but not the UKMET..lol..still stubborn..as Brits are..LOL

My wife would agree with that

[StormLogic]

UKMET 12Z FWIW

[ROCK]

UKMET shifted west again hmmmmm must be picking up a stronger ridge. This might be a huge bust or win of all time. Hard to win against the Euro within 96hrs..thou..GFS old or new still likes odd..Jmo

The Myth. The Man. The Legend. The Rock is back!!

Still kickin...

[ROCK]

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/ukmet12_TT850.10.gif?t=1562870381
UKMET 12Z FWIW

Totally misses the weakness ridge restores quickly after SW...I have seen weirder things IMO

[StormLogic]

IF ukmet plays out, this the precip accum.

[davidiowx]

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/ukmetPR12.11.gif?t=1562870483

IF ukmet plays out, this the precip accum.

Looks like that is showing 4-6 or so in that map.

[SoupBone]

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/ukmet12_TT850.10.gif?t=1562870381
UKMET 12Z FWIW

What's the pressure at landfall for the UKMET?

[StormLogic]

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/ukmet12_TT850.10.gif?t=1562870381
UKMET 12Z FWIW

What's the pressure at landfall for the UKMET?

985

[StormLogic]

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/ukmetPR12.11.gif?t=1562870483

IF ukmet plays out, this the precip accum.

Looks like that is showing 4-6 or so in that map.

probably a little more, but also its in a 12hr period so totals overall would prolly be in 15-20"

[TheStormExpert]

Oh the UKMET and its left bias!

[Nederlander]

Could someone explain to me how the GFS ensembles are all shifted W with a mean ensemble west of Vermilion Bay, but the actual GFS is further E? I guess I wrongly assumed that the GFS was kind of a compromise of the ensemble runs. Are they weighted? Are the ensembles just nuanced versions of the GFs with slight changes in certain variables?

[LarryWx]

Could someone explain to me how the GFS ensembles are all shifted W with a mean ensemble west of Vermilion Bay, but the actual GFS is further E? I guess I wrongly assumed that the GFS was kind of a compromise of the ensemble runs. Are they weighted? Are the ensembles just nuanced versions of the GFs with slight changes in certain variables?

The ensembles are basd on an older GFS version than the FV3, which is the newest GFS.
Ensembles of any model are based on slight changes in initializations.

[StormLogic]

https://col.st/MUUY5 You can see its trying lol

[facemane]

Oh the UKMET and its left bias!

It may be out to lunch on Barry, but I will never discount it for one reason. In 2005 the UKMET was locked on to the mouth of the Ms. River when Katrina entered
the GOM and began to bomb. The Euro and GFS were predicting a big bend area of Florida at the time.

[NDG]

12z Euro ensembles.

[AtlanticWind]

Oh the UKMET and its left bias!

It may be out to lunch on Barry, but I will never discount it for one reason. In 2005 the UKMET was locked on to the mouth of the Ms. River when Katrina entered
the GOM and began to bomb. The Euro and GFS were predicting a big bend area of Florida at the time.

All the models have many upgrades since 2005 . There is no comparing a modeling
outcome from 14 years ago.

[BRweather]

12z Euro ensembles.

https://i.imgur.com/iFPQCYU.png

The problem with the ensembles is that they are all in a different location in 6 hours. They seem to be just as confused on where to pick a center.

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro and Ensembles as well as the 12z GFS ensembles show south central Louisiana in the thick of things still. Not sure what to think but I'm glad I got my supplies already as I'm a little more concerned now then I was earlier. 12z Euro produces right at hurricane force gusts for Lafayette.

[StormLogic]

NAM 18Z MORE WEST

[tarheelprogrammer]

NAM 18Z MORE WEST

West trend is looking like a possibility only if the center relocates a little further SW, which some models such as the NAM and UKMET are doing.