ATL: BARRY - Models

[Steve]

Inland and over New Orleans by 48 hours. Still not much on the north side.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1118&fh=48

[NDG]

Credit to the GFS for forecasting a couple of days ago dry northerly shear to affect the system as it tracked over the central GOM. I was questioning it back then when conditions were almost perfect across the GOM but it was absolutely right that it was not going to stay like that.

[gatorcane]

Yeah NDG the GFS did quite well with some aspects of this system despite the bashing it took. The Euro was too far west and too strong with Barry though it did very well also predicting genesis long before the GFS picked up on it. Consensus of the two and you usually get the outcome or close to it. Am I seeing that correctly that the GFS no longer makes Barry into a hurricane?

[NDG]

Yeah NDG the GFS did quite well with some aspects of this system despite the bashing it took. The Euro was too far west and too strong with Barry though it did very well also predicting genesis long before the GFS picked up on it. Consensus of the two and you usually get the outcome or close to it. Am I seeing that correctly that the GFS no longer makes Barry into a hurricane?

That is correct.

[ronjon]

Barry pretty typical early season storm. Lopsided and sheared with dry air intrusion. I'm having my doubts it ever reaches hurricane status and unless it explodes convection overnight I believe the rainfall totals might be overdone. But good for us if it stays weak and disorganized. The new GFS has done well with the storm so far.

[MississippiWx]

Winds have definitely increased as the circulation continues to tighten. As the shear lets up a bit, it will take another step up in intensity. Judging by the way the south side of this system looks, this would have been a rather strong hurricane had the shear not increased.

[caneman]

Yeah NDG the GFS did quite well with some aspects of this system despite the bashing it took. The Euro was too far west and too strong with Barry though it did very well also predicting genesis long before the GFS picked up on it. Consensus of the two and you usually get the outcome or close to it. Am I seeing that correctly that the GFS no longer makes Barry into a hurricane?

That is correct.

And maybe one day we can move on from the silly King Euro crap as it diminishes the value and importance of all models and model blend. As I recall the UKMET had some good scores last year as well. Model blend folks. Model blend. Some models score better based on time or year, location, fronts, dry air etc...

[stormlover2013]

Yeah NDG the GFS did quite well with some aspects of this system despite the bashing it took. The Euro was too far west and too strong with Barry though it did very well also predicting genesis long before the GFS picked up on it. Consensus of the two and you usually get the outcome or close to it. Am I seeing that correctly that the GFS no longer makes Barry into a hurricane?

This still isn’t over with
That is correct.

And maybe one day we can move on from the silly King Euro crap as it diminishes the value and importance of all models and model blend. As I recall the UKMET had some good scores last year as well. Model blend folks. Model blend. Some models score better based on time or year, location etc...

[StormLogic]

mid level moisture starting to really pan out

[BRweather]

Did the HWRF finally give up on it's far eastern track? Looks like 18z more in line with GFS and ECMWF

[BRweather]

[BRweather]

Yikes. HWRF a disaster for southeast LA. Training bands of rain. Big shift west.

[stormlover2013]

That’s a big shift west

[BRweather]

Well....might actually want to ignore the 18z HWRF I have been posting. It has massive problems with its 500MB vorticity. Not sure what is going wrong.

[sphelps8681]

https://youtu.be/LLX-N1op0dQ Levi video for today.

[Nederlander]

When does the next UKMET run? I hope it finally backs off the ledge

[PTrackerLA]

18z Euro landfall around Iberia/Vermilion Parish border and the center moves NNW from there just barely west of Lafayette. Drops 12.1" here through the next 72 hours...

[Audrey2Katrina]

Winds have definitely increased as the circulation continues to tighten. As the shear lets up a bit, it will take another step up in intensity. Judging by the way the south side of this system looks, this would have been a rather strong hurricane had the shear not increased.

Well, Thank God for small favors... and wind shear!

[Steve]

18z Euro landfall around Iberia/Vermilion Parish border and the center moves NNW from there just barely west of Lafayette. Drops 12.1" here through the next 72 hours...

Euro has been fairly narrow from several days out and has done a mostly good job overall with landfall location if it verifies within 100-150 miles.

[gatorcane]

The GFS legacy consistent with putting NOLA in the crosshairs for a lot of rain and even some strong winds: