ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1150839485476814848

This is exactly what I mean that the Fall season encourages +ENSO. While late Spring and Summer seasons encourage -ENSO. I think it could go either way with the ENSO state being in limbo.

[CyclonicFury]

https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1150839485476814848

1986 isn't really a great analog, 1986 was coming off three consecutive -ENSO years. The ENSO regions were steadily warming in the summer of 1986, while in 2019 they have cooled. I'm not sure about the subsurface in 1986, though, but in 2019 it certainly doesn't look very supportive of El Nino.

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1150839485476814848

1986 isn't really a great analog, 1986 was coming off three consecutive -ENSO years. The ENSO regions were steadily warming in the summer of 1986, while in 2019 they have cooled. I'm not sure about the subsurface in 1986, though, but in 2019 it certainly doesn't look very supportive of El Nino.

I think his point is that there is a chance for El Nino to re-amplify in the fall. Regardless of what happens, other than sinking motion over the open Atlantic, I don't see ENSO being an obstacle towards the Atlantic hurricane season.

[Ntxw]

[url]https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1150839485476814848[url]

This is exactly what I mean that the Fall season encourages +ENSO. While late Spring and Summer seasons encourage -ENSO. I think it could go either way with the ENSO state being in limbo.

The seasonal normals also play a role. 27.7C in July is +0.4 as we saw today. However 27.7C in October is over +1C.

[Kingarabian]

Although weak, the El Nino standing wave has been re-establishing itself the past 40 days with help from CCKW activity.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1151496792850227201

[stormlover2013]

https://www.click2houston.com/weather/w ... s-el-nino-

[Ntxw]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1151496792850227201

-SOI. Months of busted forecast is more than just noise.

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1151496792850227201

-SOI. Months of busted forecast is more than just noise.

Pretty much.

[SoupBone]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1151496792850227201

-SOI. Months of busted forecast is more than just noise.

Pretty much.

I thought the consensus was that el nino being over was a done deal.

[Kingarabian]

-SOI. Months of busted forecast is more than just noise.

Pretty much.

I thought the consensus was that el nino being over was a done deal.

I don't think there was ever a consensus on anything lol

[Ntxw]

-SOI. Months of busted forecast is more than just noise.

Pretty much.

I thought the consensus was that el nino being over was a done deal.

The consensus is basically what the CPC and IRI have stated. Weak Nino (waning) event with back and forth/mixed signal. We are still officially in an El Nino per ONI that may end in September assuming no new warming occurs.

[Kingarabian]

Pretty much.

I thought the consensus was that el nino being over was a done deal.

The consensus is basically what the CPC and IRI have stated. Weak Nino (waning) event with back and forth/mixed signal. We are still officially in an El Nino per ONI that may end in September assuming no new warming occurs.

Officially the CPC has done a pretty good job. Although I think they went too low on their odds for El Nino during ASO, especially considering the state of the SOI. But outside of the CPC and the IRI, there has been quite a bit of disagreement.

[Ntxw]

I thought the consensus was that el nino being over was a done deal.

The consensus is basically what the CPC and IRI have stated. Weak Nino (waning) event with back and forth/mixed signal. We are still officially in an El Nino per ONI that may end in September assuming no new warming occurs.

Officially the CPC has done a pretty good job. Although I think they went too low on their odds for El Nino during ASO, especially considering the state of the SOI. But outside of the CPC and the IRI, there has been quite a bit of disagreement.

Folks are often in a rush to proceed with day to day and week to week changes and projecting it. ENSO events are slow to change often taking months and seasons.

[NotSparta]

I thought the consensus was that el nino being over was a done deal.

The consensus is basically what the CPC and IRI have stated. Weak Nino (waning) event with back and forth/mixed signal. We are still officially in an El Nino per ONI that may end in September assuming no new warming occurs.

Officially the CPC has done a pretty good job. Although I think they went too low on their odds for El Nino during ASO, especially considering the state of the SOI. But outside of the CPC and the IRI, there has been quite a bit of disagreement.

To be fair though, SOI doesn't have much support behind it, as a lot of other indicators (such as llvl winds) suggest more neutral conditions already, but yeah there is still support for a weak El Niño currently

[Kingarabian]

The consensus is basically what the CPC and IRI have stated. Weak Nino (waning) event with back and forth/mixed signal. We are still officially in an El Nino per ONI that may end in September assuming no new warming occurs.

Officially the CPC has done a pretty good job. Although I think they went too low on their odds for El Nino during ASO, especially considering the state of the SOI. But outside of the CPC and the IRI, there has been quite a bit of disagreement.

To be fair though, SOI doesn't have much support behind it, as a lot of other indicators (such as llvl winds) suggest more neutral conditions already, but yeah there is still support for a weak El Niño currently

I think the correct way to put it from your perspective is that the argument for weak El Nino conditions to continue doesn't have much support other than the state of the SOI and its components.

[CyclonicFury]

The SOI may be extremely negative but the ocean isn't responding. The subsurface is too cool, and it appears a trade burst is coming soon. While I do not expect a La Niña event like the CFS shows, I think we will see at least a temporary dip into warm neutral ENSO. Niño regrowth cannot be ruled out this fall, but probably not before then.

[dexterlabio]

All the indicators are so mixed, I suppose the best guess on what this year would be over-all is neutral. If it's not quite El Nino but not La Nina either, then let's just go with neutral. Though in the case of neutral years, predicting weather patterns (TC activity) in different portions of the globe is more challenging, unlike in definite El Nino or La Nina years when we can say straightforward that the rainfall or tropical activity in a particular region will be suppressed/amplified.

[Kingarabian]

Euro had the 18th of July Tahiti pressure at 1014mb. Came in at 1012mb.

[Shell Mound]

The SOI may be extremely negative but the ocean isn't responding. The subsurface is too cool, and it appears a trade burst is coming soon. While I do not expect a La Niña event like the CFS shows, I think we will see at least a temporary dip into warm neutral ENSO. Niño regrowth cannot be ruled out this fall, but probably not before then.

Do you mean cool neutral ENSO? The upcoming trade burst (Rossby-related EWB) looks sufficiently strong to cause some decent and persistent cooling near the IDL, and possibly a bit farther east as well. I think the odds for cool neutral ENSO, especially by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season (ASO), have gone up substantially, though La Niña is still a long shot at this point. The overall, slow-motion, long-term trend on all atmospheric and oceanic fronts, relative to model biases and adjustments, is definitely weighted toward neutral or cool neutral ENSO by ASO, though there will be fluctuations. A few months ago I was leaning toward warm neutral to dead neutral ENSO by ASO, but now I've had to adjust to a more bullish, cooler outlook for the peak of the Atlantic TC season, though I'm certainly not as aggressive as the La Niña-leaning CFSv2 at this juncture.