ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[jconsor]

What does El Nino Modoki type II mean? (I didn't even know there were two types.)

Modoki II (like 2018) is focused mainly in central Pacific and north of the equator, whereas in Modoki I (like 2002) warm SST anomalies extend from central Pacific into part of the eastern Pacific and are also typically found a larger distance south of the equator.

See https://www.researchgate.net/profile/We ... events.pdf

[Kingarabian]

What does El Nino Modoki type II mean? (I didn't even know there were two types.)

Modoki II (like 2018) is focused mainly in central Pacific and north of the equator, whereas in Modoki I (like 2002) warm SST anomalies extend from central Pacific into part of the eastern Pacific and are also typically found a larger distance south of the equator.

See https://www.researchgate.net/profile/We ... events.pdf

What about 2004's?

[jconsor]

What does El Nino Modoki type II mean? (I didn't even know there were two types.)

Modoki II (like 2018) is focused mainly in central Pacific and north of the equator, whereas in Modoki I (like 2002) warm SST anomalies extend from central Pacific into part of the eastern Pacific and are also typically found a larger distance south of the equator.

See https://www.researchgate.net/profile/We ... events.pdf

What about 2004's?

2004 was also Modoki type II, as was 1966. The paper I mentioned above has lists of Modoki I and II years.

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/etpLKeB
Those cool anoms look to be spreading futher west.

[Kingarabian]

With the Euro forecast for July19-25 to be a positive SOI period busting, its pretty much certain now that the atmosphere in July was in El Nino, and more importantly the past 90 days.

[tolakram]

I swear new terms are being made up daily.

Modoki I and II are described in this paper.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00107.1

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro has Tahiti MSLP average for July 28-Aug 02 @ 1016mb and the MSLP average over Darwin @ 1015.

[Shell Mound]

Well, after all the debate, warm neutral ENSO looks to be the best bet for ASO, in terms of overall oceanic/atmospheric conditions, on balance. Kudos to Ntxw.

[NDG]

On this week's update Nino 3.4 is back up to +0.4C, Nino 1+2 up to -0.2C, Nino 3 reamains at 0C and Nino 4 warms to +1.0C

[Chris90]

Daily SOI is now starting to tilt positive again, it's been positive 3 out of the last 4 days, with the July 29th value at 9.23. Obviously that's a very small period of time in the scheme of things, but a noticeable change nonetheless after almost every day in July has been negative. 30 day SOI is now at -6.80 and 90 day SOI is at -8.04.

[cycloneye]

Text of CPC Weekly update that has Niño 3.4 up to +0.4C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Kingarabian]

For whatever it's worth:
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1156172227303399425

[Kingarabian]

GFS has a large trade burst over the dateline:


But it's the only model to have the MJO enter the MC with strong amplification.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/HydroClim/status/1157015889713258499




 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1157017625718853632

[Kingarabian]

This could change but none of the ECMWF guidance shows it:

[Kingarabian]

Today's 12z Euro shows the SOI daily's being mildly negative until August 5. From August 6 to August 11, the Euro has Darwin's MSLP averaging near 1013, and for that same period it has the pressures @ Tahiti averaging near 1016.75mb. That's a very positive SOI.

[Ntxw]

GFS is forecasting a big EWB which will end the official Nino near the IDL. The modoki structure is still present for the time being.

ONI for MJJ comes in at 0.5C which should be the last Nino trimonthly to date and will end with the next reading come early September and we will officially be in warm neutral territory.

[Kingarabian]

GFS is forecasting a big EWB which will end the official Nino near the IDL. The modoki structure is still present for the time being.

ONI for MJJ comes in at 0.5C which should be the last Nino trimonthly to date and will end with the next reading come early September and we will officially be in warm neutral territory.

While there will likely be above average trades over the next week or so, it looks really overdone to me. Probably has a lot to do with how strong it makes the MJO over the MC:


Compared to the Euro:

[cycloneye]

CPC Weekly update that has Niño 3.4 up to +0.5C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[LarryWx]

Today's 12z Euro shows the SOI daily's being mildly negative until August 5. From August 6 to August 11, the Euro has Darwin's MSLP averaging near 1013, and for that same period it has the pressures @ Tahiti averaging near 1016.75mb. That's a very positive SOI.

Today’s 0Z Euro says that after that mainly +SOI period that 8/12-15 looks like a solidly -SOI period once again, especially 8/13-4.