EPAC: HENRIETTE - Remnants

[Nancy Smar]

92E INVEST 190809 1200 13.6N 95.1W EPAC 20 1008

[Nancy Smar]

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec have become a little
more concentrated overnight. Conditions are forecast to be
conducive for some additional development over the weekend and
a tropical depression could form within the next few days while
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, just off the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, this
system could product locally heavy rainfall along portions of the
southern and southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Chris90]

Talk about a coast hugger. It does have some decent convection right now though and it looks like a circulation might be developing and tightening up. Maybe we can get another quick TS out of this.

[cycloneye]

A trough of low pressure located about 100 miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions could still favor some gradual development
during the next couple of days while the system moves
west-northwestward just off the southwestern coast of Mexico. After
that time, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for
tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of development, the
disturbance will likely bring locally heavy rainfall along portions
of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

A trough of low pressure located about 100 miles southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. Some gradual development is possible during the next
couple of days and a tropical depression could form while the system
moves west-northwestward just off the southwestern coast of Mexico.
After that time, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for
tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of development, the
disturbance will likely bring locally heavy rainfall along portions
of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Development chances are probably closer to 20%. There's some hints of a brief low forming on the GFS and ECMWF but emphasis on the words hints and brief.

[NotSparta]

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the
southwestern coast of Mexico is associated with a trough of low
pressure. This system has about a day or two to become a tropical
depression as it moves west-northwestward just off the southwestern
coast of Mexico. After that time, conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of
development, the disturbance will likely bring locally heavy
rainfall along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some development
of this system is possible over the next day or so while it moves
west-northwestward, away from the coast of Mexico. Thereafter,
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of
the low-pressure system south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

Thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure system located
a few hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula have become a little better organized during the past
several hours. In addition, recent satellite-derived surface wind
data indicate that the low has become better defined, with winds
just below tropical-storm strength occurring near and to the east
of the center. If this recent development trend continues, then
advisories could be initiated on a tropical depression or a tropical
storm later this evening while the disturbance moves westward to
west-northwestward, away from the coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for significant
development on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Lol

[cycloneye]

Another brief cyclone for 2019.

[Nancy Smar]

WTPN21 PHNC 112300
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.8N 107.1W TO 20.8N 112.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 112230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.1N 107.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 122300Z.
//

[Yellow Evan]

12/0000 UTC 18.9N 108.9W T1.5/1.5 92E -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

Thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated near the center
of a small low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Satellite images
also indicate that the low is gradually becoming better defined. If
this recent development trend continues, then advisories could be
initiated on a tropical depression or a tropical storm later tonight
while the disturbance moves generally west-northwestward, away from
the coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for significant development by early Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922019 08/12/19 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 35 35 36 38 39 38 35 32 28
V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 35 35 36 38 39 38 35 32 28
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 33 31 28 25 22 19 16 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 12 13 10 8 6 5 4 7 7 10 18 19 22
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 0 -2 1 1 2 4 5 1 -1 -3 -2
SHEAR DIR 17 32 33 28 40 70 196 248 250 209 201 203 196
SST (C) 29.7 29.2 28.8 28.0 27.7 26.0 24.3 23.0 21.9 21.7 22.5 22.6 23.0
POT. INT. (KT) 163 158 153 145 142 125 107 93 81 78 86 86 90
200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.9 -54.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 61 58 60 53 51 46 42 40 39 41
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -4 11 -8 -14 -1 0 0 12 4 0 -15 -41 -47
200 MB DIV 29 39 22 -6 -1 14 3 5 0 -10 1 -14 -4
700-850 TADV -4 -1 3 -2 -2 -1 8 13 15 16 11 11 1
LAND (KM) 408 412 384 404 481 572 704 804 944 1076 1160 1254 1328
LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.2 19.7 20.1 20.4 21.4 22.6 23.8 25.1 26.0 26.4 26.4 26.5
LONG(DEG W) 109.1 110.2 111.4 112.5 113.8 116.5 119.1 121.7 124.0 126.0 127.8 129.3 130.5
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 14 13 13 11 9 8 6 5
HEAT CONTENT 15 13 12 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 14. 16. 16. 16. 15. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1.
RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 5. 2. -2.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.6 109.1

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922019 INVEST 08/12/19 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 4.7
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.54 4.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.26 1.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.80 0.5
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 21.6% 19.9% 15.0% 0.0% 18.1% 18.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.1% 6.8% 5.6% 1.5% 0.7% 1.1% 0.1% 0.5%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 4.4% 9.5% 8.5% 5.5% 0.2% 6.4% 6.1% 0.2%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922019 INVEST 08/12/19 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Nancy Smar]

East Pacific
09E.NINE

EP, 09, 2019081200, , BEST, 0, 187N, 1092W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 130, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NINE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, TRANSITIONED, epB22019 to ep092019,

LO 09-E

[Nancy Smar]

EP, 09, 2019081200, 03, OFCL, 0, 187N, 1092W, 30, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 0,
EP, 09, 2019081200, 03, OFCL, 3, 189N, 1098W, 30, 0, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 0,
EP, 09, 2019081200, 03, OFCL, 12, 194N, 1112W, 35, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 0, 0, 0, 45, 0,
EP, 09, 2019081200, 03, OFCL, 24, 203N, 1131W, 35, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 0, 0, 0, 45, 0,
EP, 09, 2019081200, 03, OFCL, 36, 213N, 1153W, 35, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 0, 0, 0, 45, 0,
EP, 09, 2019081200, 03, OFCL, 48, 221N, 1178W, 30, 0, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 0,
EP, 09, 2019081200, 03, OFCL, 72, 237N, 1232W, 25, 0, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 35, 0,

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019
900 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019

The broad low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking the
past several days has finally developed a well-defined surface
circulation and enough organized deep convection to be classified as
a tropical depression. A late-arriving 1716Z ASCAT-C scatterometer
pass indicated the surface wind field was possibly closed at that
time, but since then deep convection with tops of -75C to -80C have
persisted near and to the west of the mid-level circulation center,
suggesting that a low-level center has likely closed off now. Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates are T1.5/25 kt from both TAFB and SAB,
but the initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on 30-31 kt winds
indicated in the aforementioned scatterometer data.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward or 295/12
kt, based primarily on scatterometer and passive microwave fixes.
The small cyclone is expected to move west-northwestward around the
southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 3 days until
dissipation occurs. The NHC track forecast lies near the southern
portion of the guidance envelope, between the TVCE consensus model
and the ECMWF-ensemble mean model.

The small cyclone only has about 36 hours to strengthen before the
system moves over sub-26 deg C SSTs. The shear is forecast to be low
at less than 10 kt for the next 72 hours or so, even decreasing to
near 5 kt in 24-36 h, which would normally result in significant
development. However, intermittent intrusions of dry mid-level air
are expected to disrupt the typical intensification process, thus
only modest strengthening is forecast through 36 h, after which
much cooler waters will induce a weakening trend. The official
intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN
intensity consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 18.9N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 19.4N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 20.3N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 21.3N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 22.1N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0000Z 23.7N 123.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

Very exciting I know.

[StruThiO]

[Chris90]

Hey, it's got 36 hours, EPac cyclones have pulled some impressive tricks with that amount of time. I'll go ahead and throw it the possibility for 55kts.