Disturbed Weather in North-NorthWestern GOM (Is Invest 90L)

[NDG]

Closer look at the 12z GEFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 412&fh=210

[stormlover2013]

lets just keep modeling to see if a center forms, still longs way out, atleast it will keep us busy.

[crownweather]

Closer look at the 12z GEFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 412&fh=210
https://i.imgur.com/Ccgsfxg.gif

I think I counted five or six more members with low pressure as compared to the 06z GEFS. Interesting because the GFS trended weaker while the Euro trended a smidge stronger.

[stormlover2013]

EURO ensembles will be out in 35 mins so we will see

[LarryWx]

EURO ensembles will be out in 35 mins so we will see

They're now out and do show a little more support than the prior run although it is still just rather modest support. I see one H and it hits AL/FL border at hour 240 in addition to some TSs and TDs.

[stormlover2013]

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html

euro ensem

[BobHarlem]

I know folks are tracking these phantom waves, but honestly it looks like August is on its way to a big 0 for storm activity with all the dry/sinking air around.

[northjaxpro]

I am liking the chances of the potential system in the GOM for the late part.of next week. I agree Bob with sinking and dry air being the primary inhibitor in the MDR. However, by next week, shear should be at least marginal conducive for development and dry air should not be such an issue in the GOM next week as well.

I think we will get Chantal in the Gulf next week. I will see if I will eat my words here in a couple of weeks.

[NDG]

A little more support increase from previous 0z run.

[cycloneye]

Only one wave is in the surface charts between the Lesser Antilles and Africa and is this one.At 41W on 18z analysis.

[Aric Dunn]

Only one wave is in the surface charts between the Lesser Antilles and Africa and is this one.At 41W on 18z analysis.

https://i.imgur.com/c2S5Gfd.gif

Thats still the same one..

[Aric Dunn]

Model support for or against development will improve once the wave approaches the islands and starts interacting with the TUTT.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the 18Z GFS will disappoint with no development. But with the Euro showing something, still an area to watch for our next named system (Yucatán/Southern Gulf possibly WCAR)

[cycloneye]

Well,18z did not had a cat 4 in GOM.

[NDG]

I'm about to say, wake me up in September, lol.
Sad that we keep looking at off and on ghost storms past a 168 hr forecast because there is nothing else promising in the short term, dry dusty air just keeps winning

[stormlover2013]

Gfs legacy develops into corpus

[NDG]

Model support for or against development will improve once the wave approaches the islands and starts interacting with the TUTT.

The same TUTT that will most likely shred it to pieces and then the low level jet over the central Caribbean will finish it off

[stormlover2013]

Gfs legacy has cat 1 corpus or maybe little north

[Cpv17]

Closer look at the 12z GEFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 412&fh=210
https://i.imgur.com/Ccgsfxg.gif

No thanks. Texas needs some freaking rain. We’re torching here. Louisiana has had plenty of it!!

[Aric Dunn]

Model support for or against development will improve once the wave approaches the islands and starts interacting with the TUTT.

The same TUTT that will most likely shred it to pieces and then the low level jet over the central Caribbean will finish it off

No. Your missing the point.