Disturbed Weather in North-NorthWestern GOM (Is Invest 90L)
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands
Last edited by NDG on Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands
lets just keep modeling to see if a center forms, still longs way out, atleast it will keep us busy.
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- crownweather
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands
NDG wrote:Closer look at the 12z GEFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 412&fh=210
https://i.imgur.com/Ccgsfxg.gif
I think I counted five or six more members with low pressure as compared to the 06z GEFS. Interesting because the GFS trended weaker while the Euro trended a smidge stronger.
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands
EURO ensembles will be out in 35 mins so we will see
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands
stormlover2013 wrote:EURO ensembles will be out in 35 mins so we will see
They're now out and do show a little more support than the prior run although it is still just rather modest support. I see one H and it hits AL/FL border at hour 240 in addition to some TSs and TDs.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands
I know folks are tracking these phantom waves, but honestly it looks like August is on its way to a big 0 for storm activity with all the dry/sinking air around.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands
I am liking the chances of the potential system in the GOM for the late part.of next week. I agree Bob with sinking and dry air being the primary inhibitor in the MDR. However, by next week, shear should be at least marginal conducive for development and dry air should not be such an issue in the GOM next week as well.
I think we will get Chantal in the Gulf next week. I will see if I will eat my words here in a couple of weeks.
I think we will get Chantal in the Gulf next week. I will see if I will eat my words here in a couple of weeks.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:43 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands
A little more support increase from previous 0z run.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands
Only one wave is in the surface charts between the Lesser Antilles and Africa and is this one.At 41W on 18z analysis.
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands
cycloneye wrote:Only one wave is in the surface charts between the Lesser Antilles and Africa and is this one.At 41W on 18z analysis.
https://i.imgur.com/c2S5Gfd.gif
Thats still the same one..
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands
Model support for or against development will improve once the wave approaches the islands and starts interacting with the TUTT.
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands
Looks like the 18Z GFS will disappoint with no development. But with the Euro showing something, still an area to watch for our next named system (Yucatán/Southern Gulf possibly WCAR)
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands
Well,18z did not had a cat 4 in GOM.
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands
I'm about to say, wake me up in September, lol.
Sad that we keep looking at off and on ghost storms past a 168 hr forecast because there is nothing else promising in the short term, dry dusty air just keeps winning
Sad that we keep looking at off and on ghost storms past a 168 hr forecast because there is nothing else promising in the short term, dry dusty air just keeps winning
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands
Aric Dunn wrote:Model support for or against development will improve once the wave approaches the islands and starts interacting with the TUTT.
The same TUTT that will most likely shred it to pieces and then the low level jet over the central Caribbean will finish it off
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands
Gfs legacy has cat 1 corpus or maybe little north
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands
NDG wrote:Closer look at the 12z GEFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 412&fh=210
https://i.imgur.com/Ccgsfxg.gif
No thanks. Texas needs some freaking rain. We’re torching here. Louisiana has had plenty of it!!
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands
NDG wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Model support for or against development will improve once the wave approaches the islands and starts interacting with the TUTT.
The same TUTT that will most likely shred it to pieces and then the low level jet over the central Caribbean will finish it off
No. Your missing the point.
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