SE CONUS Coast Watch - Now 97L

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the 0zGFS tries to develop this off the SE coast and goes out to sea after that just SE of New England

[GCANE]

Changing Thread Title to
"SE CONUS Coast Watch"

Will post another thread if it looks like something else may develop in the GOM

[GCANE]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico and northeastern Florida are associated with a weak surface
trough. Any tropical development of this system is expected to be
slow to occur during the next few days while it moves northeastward
at 5 to 10 mph near the coasts of Georgia, South and North Carolina.
Regardless of development, the disturbance is forecast to produce
heavy rainfall along with a threat of flash flooding in that region.
Please see products from your local National Weather Service office
or the Weather Prediction Center's Excessive Rainfall Outlook for
more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

In terms of CCKW, even though its a bit removed from the equator, there maybe a couple days of opportunity

[GCANE]

Convection beginning to fire off Big Bend
Firing from strong SW ocean winds converging onto the coast coupled with a 250mb trough and DMAX,

[northjaxpro]

Yep. Heavy rainfall rolling in onshore over from the Suwanee River Valley and will move northeast acrosss all of North Florida today.

Pressure açtually rose slightly overnight, with 1015.3 mb currently at the home station.

There is a line of showers extending up along the coast from Jacksonville north/northeast to offshore Savannah, GA. Will warch today if convection re-fires.just off the Southeast Atlantic Coast today.

[GCANE]

One cell approaching the coast showing a very apparent spin

[northjaxpro]

Yeah I see it clearly GCÀNE. Another small vort. It is a very interesting feature to see on radar for sure. We have seen several of them along this ever present and persistent ttough over the region.

Also, one big thing really noticable this morning , which I mentioned last night, is the dry air. It is just off to the north and west. May try to infiltrate the system later today.

[NDG]

:uarrow: Yeah I see it clearly GCÀNE. Another small vort. It is a very interesting feature to see on radar for sure. We have seen several of them along this ever present and persistent ttough over the region.

Also, one big thing really noticable this morning , which I mentioned last night, is the dry air. It is just off to the north and west. May try to infiltrate the system later today.

Last night's sounding from Tallahassee showed that the dry air is already over Tallahassee, notice the northerly dry air at h70 and then at h50. I bet that's what made the vorticity or weak surface circulation open up after the dry air made the storms collapse near it.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico and northeastern Florida are associated with a weak surface
trough. Tropical development of this system, if any, is expected to
be slow to occur while it moves northeastward at 5 to 10 mph near
the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina during
the next few days. Regardless of development, the disturbance is
forecast to produce heavy rainfall along with a threat of flash
flooding in that region. Please see products from your local
National Weather Service office or the Weather Prediction Center's
Excessive Rainfall Outlook for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Aric Dunn]

Ummm check out whats happening south of Pensacola...
Not much data to go on. But sat is interesting with that low level inflow streamer in the north west side. Radar is also interesting but far out..

[shiny-pebble]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1 ... 47936?s=20

[NDG]

So the latest GFS and Euro show that the weak h70 vorticity that had formed over NE FL yesterday that is near Savannah this morning to keep moving towards the Carolinas, they both show another vorticity to form further west south of the Panhandle later today, the whole process all over again but northerly shear and not so moist environment should keep it weak.

[Aric Dunn]

I think we are about to have second area of interest pop on from the nhc later today south of mobile.

The 00z euro showed a little more vorticity developing in this area than moving north.. but from the looks of morning visible. There appears to be quite a bit more vorticity And possibly a developing circ.. need some more visible images

[northjaxpro]

It has flared with convection in that area south of Mobile, but northerly shear is impacting it pretty good this morning. This probably will keep it in check.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah looks like we have a full on sheared llc developing.. interesting.

you just never know.. lol

if convection keeps firing then we might have a sheared TD at some point over the next 24 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

[northjaxpro]

Also, we have a convective blow-up off the Georgia coast this morning in the vicinity of the mid- level vort, which moved off the coast this morning. I have been anticipating this and it is happening currently.It will be interesting if the convection can maintain in this area and can help work down a closed surface circulation of the GA/SC coast . EURO promoted this past 36 hours. We shall see....

[Aric Dunn]

Also, we have a convective blow-up off the Georgia coast this morning in the vicinity of the mid- level vort, which moved off the coast this morning. I have been anticipating this and it is happening currently.It will be interesting if the convection can maintain in this area and can help work down a closed surface circulation of the GA/SC coast . EURO promoted this past 36 hours. We shall see....

yeah right off hilton head. if that stays offshore then that also might be a quick spin up.... surface data is showing a small closed wind field.