Area in the Bahamas: Is Invest 98L
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
18z Traps it and moves it west central gulf.
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
cycloneye wrote:Something is starting to cook there.
https://twitter.com/DaDaBuh/status/1164282515517005825
I posted about that area yesterday.
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
Surface circulation is still far away from developing, I give it a good 48-72 hours before we see an LLC from developing, in the mean time it is just a mid level vorticity and a surface trough interacting with an UL trough aiding in development of convection as an UL ridge builds over the central GOM.
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
Should see a distinct broad circ by tomorrow with a more defined circ by tomorrow evening into saturday as it reaches the straights.
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
Aric Dunn wrote:Should see a distinct broad circ by tomorrow with a more defined circ by tomorrow evening into saturday as it reaches the straights.
Not impossible, but doesn't seem likely that it will form that fast.
Models don't support that.
But you never know ......
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
18z GFS brings vorticity into Florida panhandle.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2019082118&fh=144
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2019082118&fh=144
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
AtlanticWind wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Should see a distinct broad circ by tomorrow with a more defined circ by tomorrow evening into saturday as it reaches the straights.
Not impossible, but doesn't seem likely that it will form that fast.
Models don't support that.
But you never know ......
Didn't say it would develop. just that we should see a better defined circ..
maybe borderline by then.
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
looks like 18z NAM brings a developing low across keys into SE GOM? (i should say similar to 18z GFZ)
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, associated with a
trough of low pressure, extends over the Southeast and Central
Bahamas. Some slow development of this system is possible by late
this week as it drifts west-northwestward toward the Florida
peninsula. The system is expected to move generally northward near
the southeast coast of the United States and adjacent waters by
the end of the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
trough of low pressure, extends over the Southeast and Central
Bahamas. Some slow development of this system is possible by late
this week as it drifts west-northwestward toward the Florida
peninsula. The system is expected to move generally northward near
the southeast coast of the United States and adjacent waters by
the end of the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
cycloneye wrote:An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, associated with a
trough of low pressure, extends over the Southeast and Central
Bahamas. Some slow development of this system is possible by late
this week as it drifts west-northwestward toward the Florida
peninsula. The system is expected to move generally northward near
the southeast coast of the United States and adjacent waters by
the end of the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Also know as the EURO solution... lol
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
18z Euro looks like a lot of the vorticity get trapped and hangs over south florida and some of it get pulled NE..
not surprised really. given the setup. and that the 12z was Sooooo close to getting trapped.
not surprised really. given the setup. and that the 12z was Sooooo close to getting trapped.
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
OuterBanker wrote:Is something trying to wrap around 25N 74W?
That is probably mid- level. However, that is an area to watch as we head into DMAX a bit later.
This will be gradual attaining a surface reflection. I will give it about another 24-36 hours at least to see a LLC develop in the Florida Straits.
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
latest 10m Meso analysis.
850mb
850mb
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
Yes the 850 mb vort has increased significantly since the morning analysis.
Pretty good signature currently midway between Andros Island and the Northern coast of Cuba.
Pretty good signature currently midway between Andros Island and the Northern coast of Cuba.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: Yes the 850 mb vort has increased significantly since the morning analysis.
Pretty good signature currently midway between Andros Island and the Northern coast of Cuba.
The 10m wind meso analysis is also rather interesting.. If we get convection building near this area then yeah...
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
I think this disturbance has a good chance of reaching depression status if it gets into the GOM. We have several models showing low pressure forming ranging from 1010 to 1012 mb in the GOM. I'm guessing northerly shear will keep it in check from really developing until it gets into the SW Atlantic. But it could be a heavy rain producer for the FL peninsula.
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